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  BRA President
RACE DETAILS
Parents > Brazil > President
OfficePresident
Type General Election - Requires Run-Off
Filing Deadline August 15, 2022 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open October 02, 2022 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close October 02, 2022 - 03:00pm Central
Term Start January 01, 2023 - 11:00am
Term End January 01, 2027 - 11:00am
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedCampari_007 October 02, 2022 08:24pm
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartySocial Liberal Won10/28/2018
NameJair Bolsonaro Votes57,797,847 (55.13%)
Term01/01/2019 - 01/01/2023 Margin10,756,941 (+10.26%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceBRA President - Runoff 10/30/2022
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/17/2020 10/02/2022
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 3 1 1 1
Leaning Call: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/22/2022 10/01/2022

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Chief of Staff Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (I) Fed. Dep. Jair Bolsonaro Sen. Simone Tebet Finance Minister Ciro Gomes Soraya Thronicke Luiz Felipe d'Ávila Kelmon Souza
PartyWorkers' Liberal Brazilian Democratic Movement Democratic Labour Brazil Union NOVO Brazilian Labour
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes (99.13% in) 56,560,251 (48.23%) 50,864,973 (43.37%) 4,899,509 (4.18%) 3,578,255 (3.05%) 596,733 (0.51%) 558,334 (0.48%) 80,336 (0.07%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -5,695,278 (-4.86%) -51,660,742 (-44.05%) -52,981,996 (-45.18%) -55,963,518 (-47.72%) -56,001,917 (-47.75%) -56,479,915 (-48.16%)
Estimated Final56,703,888 (48.10%) 51,244,452 (43.47%) 4,945,967 (4.20%) 3,608,299 (3.06%) 599,082 (0.51%) 561,774 (0.48%) 80,604 (0.07%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 05/07/2022 00/00/2022 11/25/2021 00/00/2018 07/31/2022 10/21/2021 09/01/2022
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (10 from 5 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg46.59%-- 36.29%-- 4.70%-- 5.48%-- 1.00%-- 5.85%-- -3.79%--
New!Datafolha 
09/30/22-10/01/22
48.00% 3.0 36.00% 4.0 6.00% 1.0 5.00% 4.0 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
New!MDA Pesquisa 
09/28/22-09/30/22
44.20% -- 36.30% -- 4.30% -- 4.50% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
New!AtlasIntel 
09/28/22-09/30/22
49.80% -- 40.70% -- 2.60% -- 3.90% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
New!Datafolha 
09/27/22-09/29/22
48.00% 3.0 34.00% 1.0 5.00% -- 6.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Genial/Quaest 
09/24/22-09/27/22
46.00% -- 33.00% -- 5.00% -- 6.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Ipespe 
09/14/22-09/16/22
45.00% -- 35.00% -- 5.00% -- 7.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Leonardo Péricles Sofia Manzano Vera Lúcia Salgado José Maria Eymael  
PartyPopular Unity Brazilian Communist United Socialist Workers' Christian Democracy  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes (99.13% in) 53,395 (0.05%) 45,403 (0.04%) 25,510 (0.02%) 16,532 (0.01%)  
Margin-56,506,856 (-48.18%) -56,514,848 (-48.19%) -56,534,741 (-48.21%) -56,543,719 (-48.21%)  
Estimated Final53,809 (0.05%) 45,312 (0.04%) 25,327 (0.02%) 16,478 (0.01%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 11/14/2021 02/13/2022 03/07/2022 03/31/2022  
MATCHUP POLLS (10 from 5 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- -2.14%-- -0.95%-- 0.00%--  
New!Datafolha 
09/30/22-10/01/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
New!MDA Pesquisa 
09/28/22-09/30/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
New!AtlasIntel 
09/28/22-09/30/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
New!Datafolha 
09/27/22-09/29/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Genial/Quaest 
09/24/22-09/27/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Ipespe 
09/14/22-09/16/22
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Pablo Marçal (PROS)
May 14, 2022 - Sep 12, 2022
Roberto Jefferson (PTB)
Aug 01, 2022 - Sep 01, 2022
André Janones (AVANT)
 00, 2021 - Aug 04, 2022
Álvaro Dias (PODE)
Aug 03, 2022
Luciano Bivar (UB)
Apr 14, 2022 - Jul 31, 2022
Jorge Kajuru (PODE)
Jun 30, 2022
João Doria Júnior (PSDB)
Nov 27, 2021 - May 23, 2022
Sérgio Moro (PODE)
Oct 00, 2021 - Mar 31, 2022
Aldo Rebelo (I)
Mar 31, 2022
Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD)
Oct 23, 2021 - Mar 10, 2022
Alessandro Vieira (CDN)
Oct 25, 2021 - Mar 00, 2022
Joaquim Barbosa (PSB)
 00, 2022
Glauber Braga (PSOL)
 00, 2022
Renato Casagrande (PSB)
 00, 2022
Francisco Everardo Oliveira Silva "Tiririca" (PL)
 00, 2022
José Reguffe (PODE)
 00, 2022
Cabo Daciolo (PMB)
Dec 16, 2021
Luiz Henrique Mandetta (UB)
Nov 25, 2021
João Amoêdo (NOVO)
Jun 00, 2021
Antônio Hamilton Mourão (PRTB)
Apr 30, 2021
Rui Costa (PT)
 00, 2021
Flávio Dino (PCdoB)
 00, 2021
Fernando Haddad (PT)
 00, 2021
Renan Filho (PMDB)
 00, 2021
Ibaneis Rocha (PMDB)
 00, 2021
Camilo Santana (PT)
 00, 2021
Michel Temer (PMDB)
 00, 2021

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Aug 16, 2022 03:45pm Speech Lula says Bolsonaro ‘possessed by devil’ as he launches Brazil election campaign  Article RP 
May 06, 2022 08:00am Strategy Brazil’s Bolsonaro says he will seek audit of voting system  Article RP 
Nov 17, 2020 05:00am General Brazilian leftists seek to emulate US Democrats' unity to beat Bolsonaro  Article IndyGeorgia 

DISCUSSION
[View All
14
Previous Messages]
 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -446.0992 points)
Fri, September 30, 2022 06:22:41 AM UTC0:00
"I will not tell u who to support"

*Winks and nudges you to vote Lula*

 
D:1989RBH ( 4455.8745 points)
Fri, September 30, 2022 10:03:55 PM UTC0:00
at least Millionaires and Billionaires are spelled pretty much the same

now, how one says "milionários" on the other hand

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 4296.6807 points)
Sat, October 1, 2022 06:20:51 PM UTC0:00
Guess we will see if Neymar's endorsement is enough to keep Lula under 50.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3269.6421 points)
Sat, October 1, 2022 10:17:43 PM UTC0:00
It may be a bit priced in; most Brazilian footballers (with a couple exceptions) that do speak out on politics are on the right-leaning/evangelical side of the political spectrum. It's not insignificant, though.

Also, some members of the press have criticized Neymar for his endorsement by including these details:
Some media have linked Neymar's political preferences to an alleged benefit received by the PSG man's father to avoid paying R$ 88 million in taxes for activities between 2011 and 2013 when he played for Santos, before moving on to Europe. A Twitter user said Bolsonaro's Brazil suspended an investigation against Neymar for tax evasion “of € 35 million; Today Neymar publishes his support in the elections to the ultra-right Bolsonaro.”
[Link]

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -446.0992 points)
Sun, October 2, 2022 06:31:21 PM UTC0:00
Looks like Guaido did the same thing for Bolsonaro
[Link]

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3269.6421 points)
Sun, October 2, 2022 10:36:17 PM UTC0:00
8% of the vote in and parts of Brazilian Twitter already pulling a Stop The Count.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3269.6421 points)
Sun, October 2, 2022 11:49:27 PM UTC0:00
As more votes out of the Northeast are reported, Bolsonaro's lead drops. Lula may take the lead soon, but the question of a potential runoff remains.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3269.6421 points)
Sun, October 2, 2022 11:56:36 PM UTC0:00
Fun Fact: The state of Minas Gerais has predicted the winner every time since 1989.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -446.0992 points)
Mon, October 3, 2022 01:15:06 AM UTC0:00
If there isn't enough left to have Lula win in round 1 I think it is safe to call.

 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 713.9239 points)
Mon, October 3, 2022 01:29:06 AM UTC0:00
I believe the election results page has said It's going into second round.

 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 713.9239 points)
Mon, October 3, 2022 01:30:28 AM UTC0:00
Confirmed Runoff [Link]

 
D:6149Campari_007 ( 713.9239 points)
Mon, October 3, 2022 01:35:56 AM UTC0:00
I think Lula is in good Shape. He flipped four states into his column, got more votes in the states that voted for Haddad and ate into the vote total of Bolsonaro's states.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 4296.6807 points)
Mon, October 3, 2022 02:20:34 AM UTC0:00
Campari_007: I think Lula is in good Shape. He flipped four states into his column, got more votes in the states that voted for Haddad and ate into the vote total of Bolsonaro's states.

Lula's total is about what he polled but Bolsonoro really underpolled his final outcome by 10 - 20%. Maybe a shy Bolsonaro effect?

I expect the run-off to be very close and probably undecisive (meaning who ever wins will win by less than 4%). That can't be good for either candidate or Brazil.