In a potential Biden v. Trump election, I'm interested in seeing how many Evan McMullin voters in Utah from 2016 would consider Biden as a viable alternative vs maybe the Libertarian nominee. I don't imagine many of them who refused to vote Trump here in 2016 would be likely to do back him in 2020 You would be surprised. Utah voters love to talk about how much they abhor Trump, but then when pressed, say they will vote for him over the "baby killer socialists."

That's probably true for a large portion of Utah GOP voters, as they gave him nearly 46% of the vote in 2016. However, I am still inclined to believe that a significant portion of the 2016 McMullin voters here will look again towards a third party protest option. These are the voters who aren't so aptly willing to place conservative credentials above basic principles of decency.

The amount of Republicans who are going to vote against Trump is being vastly overstated.

I haven't seen a number or percent offered in order to be characterized as "vastly overstated." Are you just speaking in general?

I suspect that Y2 is a bit bullish on Biden. But Trump's percentage would be pretty low here if he doesn't get half of the combined McMullin/Johnson vote (McMullin had 21.5%, Johnson 3.5%)