I kept getting a sense of deja vu with this race after 2016, but looking back it appears Thatcher never actually led in any Texas polls. Although Trump did outperform some polls showing the race as being closer than it was. In the end I'm not expecting Texas to turn blue the way Nevada or New Mexico did almost overnight. But Texas may resemble Florida in that it's a red state that gives Democrats false hope as Republicans continue to win by low single-digit margins.

I re-found my source for the projection that 12 million Texans would vote (3 million more than 2016), Ryan Data & Research. The reportbreaks down the Texas early vote by primary vote history, although I don't entirely know what to make of it. Voters with a history of voting in Democratic primaries are more likely than those who who have voted in Republican primaries to have voted early. https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/4de77ad1-d032-485b-9388-a20e9f2781de/Statewide_Report_Day_7.03.pdf

I couldn't help but notice that the last 5 polls have all had Biden tied or with a narrow lead. I understand that Democrats don't want to get their hopes up and losing Texas is too horrifying to think about for Republicans, but the early voting data is showing us that this year's electorate is much bigger than (and therefore not the same as) 4 years ago.

Lot of early turnout in the Austin area: Hays and Williamson counties have already exceeded their 2016 vote totals.

No sooner than I post that the last 5 polls have looked good for Biden, one came out with Trump + 5. Best of luck to the pollsters figuring out what demographic weighting to use for this election!

From the Siena/New York Times poll writeup: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/upshot/poll-texas-hispanics-trump.html Hispanic voters are difficult to measure in any state, and Texas is no exception. In 2018, Times/Siena surveys generally underestimated turnout by Hispanics and their support for Democrats in Texas. So far this cycle, polls have varied widely on Mr. Trump’s standing among the group in Texas, with a recent Quinnipiac survey showing Mr. Biden ahead by just eight points, 51-43, while a Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler Texas survey showed him ahead by a far wider margin, 67-20.

TX suburban results are sort of a thing where it's assumed to sorta tilt R until proven otherwise. So, when Collin/Denton are leading the pack for turnout, it could be new Dems, or a good thing for Rs.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1320773877098754048

Stood in line to vote at 8am, waited about 30 minutes. The line was longer after I had left. No obvious Trump supporters at my south Austin polling place. Voted Democratic up and down the ballot. I had considered voting 3rd party this year and am ultimately dissatisfied with Biden as a nominee, but the combination of Texas becoming a potential battleground combined with the atrocity of Barrett's confirmation sealed the deal. If Biden is as weak and ineffective as I anticipate he will be, then I will simply not vote for him in 2024. But Biden's ambiguity on court-packing suggests there may be some more ambition on that front than he's letting on. Maybe American-style democracy simply does not work. But hey, I tried.

so how much residential Betomania is there in Travis County? At least the 2018 results make stuff like "the suburbs are voting early in huge numbers" seem less terrifying than it usually is for Texas Dems.

You can still see some Beto for Senate bumper stickers occasionally. I just figured it was laziness but who knows. Either way, it was a real missed opportunity against Cornyn.

Jason, who do you think would have the been the top choice for Democrats?

Overall it was Beto by default. The Democratic bench is pretty thin, so it's not as though there was a slew of candidates to pick from who held any statewide office this century. I did vote for Hegar in the primary and do think she was the more electable choice, but to be honest you wouldn't notice she was even running. For that reason, I'm surprised the polls have the race as close as it currently stands. With Beto, his presence was much more pronounced.

If Beto had announced right after Election Day 2018 that he was running against Cornyn, how do you see that race playing out?

Tough one. He would start out with considerably more name recognition than he did when announcing against Cruz, but I also would think Cornyn would (a) take Beto more seriously from the start and (b) not be seen as negatively as Cruz. But given what appears to be a toxic environment for the GOP after covid, a larger electorate, and assuming O'Rourke could still build on his impressive fundraising, I would venture to say he would have barely pulled it off in 2020.

Appreciate your thoughts, Jason. Thanks!

Harris looking to boost the turnout in Houston and DFW while also sparking turnout in the Rio Grande Valley. https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1321459062240849924

I'm glad she is going to the RGV - it is full of low propensity Democratic leaning voters.

https://twitter.com/MattyGaren/status/1322596063409221634

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322602843661021184

https://twitter.com/longhornderek/status/1324039532614979585

What's the wake up call? That more should be invested there? If people are going to vote Trump, then what's to wake up to?

Probably the Latino swing to Trump. Still trying to wrap my head around the White Supremacist President doing the best as a GOPer with minorities since Eisenhower.

another angle that I'd be interested to hear more about is.. what if some of this was due to the border being closed due to COVID... which.. some would think wouldn't exactly cause a pro-Trump bump. But there'd be an economic impact in that area from not being able to do business or as much business across the border

Does anyone know why it will not allow me to add presidential results to the state senate districts besides the ones posted already? I completed the South Texas area seats and then the page abruptly eliminated all the other senate districts from my screen. If anyone knows how to fix this, I’d appreciate it! :)