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  AR US President
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arkansas > President
Parent RaceUS President - Popular Vote
OfficePresident
HonorificPresident - Abbr: President
Type General Election
Filing Deadline ---
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 07:30am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 07:30pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRP August 16, 2023 08:56am
Data Sources[Link]
Description Phil Collins is the Presidential candidate on a ticket with Billy Joe Parker and the Vice Presidential candidate on a ticket with Connie "C. L." Gammon.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameDonald J. Trump Votes684,872 (60.57%)
Term01/20/2017 - 01/20/2021 Margin304,378 (+26.92%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Feb 22, 2020 AR US President - LBT Straw Poll
Jacob G. Hornberger
LBT 31
Mar 03, 2020 AR US President - D Primary
Joe Biden
D 229,121
Mar 03, 2020 AR US President - R Primary
Donald J. Trump
R 246,037
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/27/2019 11/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Donald J. Trump 2 --2 36
Leaning Call: Donald J. Trump (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Donald J. Trump (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/09/2020 11/01/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (I) President Donald J. Trump Vice President Joe Biden Jo Jorgensen Kanye West Howie Hawkins Phil Collins Brock Pierce
PartyRepublican Democratic Libertarian Independent Green Independent Independent
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 760,647 (62.40%) 423,932 (34.78%) 13,133 (1.08%) 4,099 (0.34%) 2,980 (0.24%) 2,812 (0.23%) 2,141 (0.18%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -336,715 (-27.62%) -747,514 (-61.32%) -756,548 (-62.06%) -757,667 (-62.15%) -757,835 (-62.17%) -758,506 (-62.22%)
Predict Avg.60.65% 37.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (8 from 3 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg61.95%-- 33.04%-- 1.32%-- 0.00%-- -0.37%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
SurveyMonkey 
10/20/20-11/01/20
61.00% 1.0 38.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SurveyMonkey 
10/01/20-10/28/20
60.00% 2.0 38.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Arkansas 
10/09/20-10/21/20
65.00% -- 32.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Talk Business 
10/11/20-10/13/20
58.00% 11.0 33.50% 11.5 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SurveyMonkey 
09/01/20-09/30/20
62.00% 5.0 38.00% 6.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SurveyMonkey 
08/01/20-08/31/20
67.00% 1.0 32.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Don Blankenship Brian T. Carroll Connie Gammon J. R. Myers Gloria E. La Riva Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente  
PartyConstitution American Solidarity Independent Life & Liberty Socialism and Liberation Independent  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 2,108 (0.17%) 1,713 (0.14%) 1,475 (0.12%) 1,372 (0.11%) 1,336 (0.11%) 1,321 (0.11%)  
Margin-758,539 (-62.22%) -758,934 (-62.26%) -759,172 (-62.27%) -759,275 (-62.28%) -759,311 (-62.29%) -759,326 (-62.29%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020  
MATCHUP POLLS (8 from 3 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
SurveyMonkey 
10/20/20-11/01/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SurveyMonkey 
10/01/20-10/28/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Arkansas 
10/09/20-10/21/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Talk Business 
10/11/20-10/13/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SurveyMonkey 
09/01/20-09/30/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SurveyMonkey 
08/01/20-08/31/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


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DISCUSSION
[View All
16
Previous Messages]
 
D:6454Mr. Matt ( 1761.4666 points)
Mon, June 15, 2020 09:59:22 PM UTC0:00

 
R:7501Maryland Republican ( 3667.0837 points)
Mon, June 15, 2020 10:01:04 PM UTC0:00
Hmmm I want some of what Dick Morris was smoking at the time. Although, of all the laughable predictions, like West Virginia and Louisiana, he somehow managed to get Indians wrong :)

 
R:7501Maryland Republican ( 3667.0837 points)
Mon, June 15, 2020 10:01:18 PM UTC0:00
Indiana*

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Tue, June 16, 2020 04:04:52 AM UTC0:00
Maryland Republican: Indiana*

The 2008 Indiana Result is a political force majeure [Link] - totally unforeseeable at the onset of the campaign and a natural disaster for the McCain campaign. McCain had to redirect funds to buy air time in Indiana to try and save the State. You knew it was over then for McCain.

The lesson from Indiana is that there was a huge swing in Indianapolis - 13 points that made this state competitive for Obama. It looks like Selzer & Co picked up on this early in their polling. I'll be the first to say some of the some dynamics appear to be helping Biden today.

The only difference is the in every county in Indiana there was a swing to the Democrats from the Republicans in 2008 vs 2004. I don't think that exists today.

But if Trump starts buying air time in states like Indiana or Arkansas in October or sooner, then yeh I'll say this election is pretty much in the bag for Biden.

FInally, I think Iowa will move into tossup territory before Arkansas does.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, June 16, 2020 08:35:56 AM UTC0:00
Marris was clearly stuck in 1996.

 
D:9362An_62190 ( 651.5887 points)
Tue, October 20, 2020 12:36:12 AM UTC0:00
Jorgensen is getting 2% in the recent poll but I can't put her in for some reason
[Link]

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Tue, October 20, 2020 12:51:31 AM UTC0:00
Add her to the straw poll, and then drop her.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Tue, October 20, 2020 02:30:27 AM UTC0:00
fixed it up.. amazing pivot by Talk Business/Hendrix

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, October 20, 2020 01:34:52 PM UTC0:00
Guess they didn't want the bias hit after all.