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  AZ US President
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > President
Parent RaceUS President - Popular Vote
OfficePresident
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 0000 - 12:00am Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedCharlotte Rose September 26, 2020 09:42pm
Data Sources
Description The AZ GOP canceled their presidential primary. [Link]
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameDonald Trump Votes1,252,401 (48.67%)
Term01/20/2017 - 01/20/2021 Margin91,234 (+3.55%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 17, 2020 AZ US President - D Primary
Joe Biden
D 536,509
United States 1959 - MAP
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/27/2019 09/28/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Joe Biden 25 1 2 --
Donald Trump 7 2 --1
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Joe Biden (67.35%)
Weighted Call: Joe Biden (96.50%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

02/12/2019 09/22/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Vice President Joe Biden (I) President Donald Trump Jo Jorgensen (W) Howie Hawkins (W) Gloria E. La Riva  
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Green Socialism and Liberation  
Campaign Logo  
Predict Avg.49.75% 47.35% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $--
Donate
$--
Donate
$--
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Donate
 
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020  
MATCHUP POLLS (62 from 28 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.05%-- 45.09%-- 1.83%-- 1.00%-- 0.00%--  
New!Data for Progress 
09/15/20-09/22/20
45.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SurveyMonkey 
09/01/20-09/21/20
49.00% -- 49.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Change Research 
09/18/20-09/20/20
49.00% -- 43.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Washington Post/ABC News 
09/15/20-09/20/20
48.00% -- 49.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
New!Hart Research (D) 
09/17/20-09/19/20
53.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data Orbital 
09/14/20-09/17/20
49.00% 3.6 47.00% 3.2 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Kanye West (I)
Sep 08, 2020

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Jan 08, 2020 07:00pm News How new residents turned Arizona purple — and made it a key battleground in 2020  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
1
Previous Messages]
 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 3898.8259 points)
Sat, September 5, 2020 06:17:25 PM UTC0:00
I'm skeptical that TV ads have much effect for well known candidates, but this still looks like a sign of weakness.

I don't see political ads because of some combination of the amount of TV I watch, what I watch, how I watch (through streaming services), and skipping commercials. I'm curious about others here though:
How many TV ads do you see?
Multiple every day 5 (41.66%)
Occasionally, but not every day 4 (33.33%)
Hardly any or not at all 3 (25%)
About one per day 0 (0%)
12 Votes Cast
Polls Close September 14, 2020 12:00am

 
S:6380Zeus the Moose ( 678.4137 points)
Sat, September 5, 2020 06:33:11 PM UTC0:00
The closest to TV ads that I see on any platform are the ads that play before or after (occaisionally during) Youtube videos, and those are political ads every once in a while

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 82.2147 points)
Sat, September 5, 2020 06:43:04 PM UTC0:00
I would say that about a third of all ads on television in eastern Pennsylvania are political.

Overall I think that Biden's ads are better produced to influence the race. Trump's ads are entirely aimed at his base rather than whoever might be undecided at this point.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 1710.1019 points)
Sat, September 5, 2020 07:13:50 PM UTC0:00
We are on streaming services only so probably not typical.

The ads I see are mostly on Youtube, Hulu, and Peacock but are clearly targted by my ip address I get:

- The same 3 anti-Hickelooper ads saying he is corrupt which I keep feeling are a tremendous waste of money

- 2 pro Gardner ads which are good and affirm why I like him as a Senator

- a couple of bad and very forgetable pro-Hickenlooper ads

- and a Cheetos ad I really like and makes me laugh every time and I just realized is a four year old ad when I looked it up on YouTube for this post

 
D:1RP ( 4505.5361 points)
Sat, September 5, 2020 07:26:08 PM UTC0:00
I see the political ads I post here. Otherwise, I try to get streaming services with no ads packages.

 
D:8255My Congressman is a Weiner ( -19.7986 points)
Sat, September 5, 2020 11:26:46 PM UTC0:00
“When did we get a cat?” Gets me every time.

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 82.2147 points)
Sun, September 13, 2020 07:58:45 PM UTC0:00
I added the Grant Woods endorsement because he recently released an internet ad identifying himself as the former Republican Attorney General of Arizona.

 
SDPA:1802Dr. Cynic ( 476.2065 points)
Mon, September 14, 2020 06:14:43 AM UTC0:00
Chronicler: I would say that about a third of all ads on television in eastern Pennsylvania are political.

Here in the West it's even worse. I'd say over 45%

 
I:10785loganburton21 ( 0.0000 points)
Mon, September 14, 2020 07:22:27 AM UTC0:00
This I agree with...its pretty bad in California...I sometimes see multiple Biden/Harris ads a day while trying to watch tv.

 
D:9362An62190 ( 312.7411 points)
Mon, September 14, 2020 05:45:31 PM UTC0:00
literally the only political ads ive seen are pro-biden ads and the anti-biden trump ads that basically make fun of biden.

 
R:10271bnml ( 0.0215 points)
Tue, September 15, 2020 11:19:22 PM UTC0:00
Pulling ads is definitely a sign of weakness. I will say the only political ads I have seen have been Stacey Abrams and Chuck Schumer asking for money. And I don't have cable television. On top of that the only other way I see ads are on the New Jersey Globe because they report literally every little thing over there.

 
D:10718Jack AP ( 0.0000 points)
Sat, September 26, 2020 08:38:33 AM UTC0:00
May be a bold claim a month and a bit out, but AZ is gone for Trump