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  FL District 27
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Florida > FL - District 27
OfficeHouse of Representatives
Type General Election
Filing Deadline July 27, 2020 - 04:00pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 06:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
Turnout 76.41% Registered
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH November 17, 2020 02:19pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2018
NameDonna Shalala Votes130,743 (51.76%)
Term01/03/2019 - 01/03/2021 Margin15,155 (+6.00%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 18, 2020 FL District 27 - R Primary
Maria Elvira Salazar
R 50,202
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/19/2019 11/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Donna Shalala 7 8 ----
Maria Elvira Salazar 2 ------
Leaning Call: Donna Shalala (92.00%)
Weighted Call: Donna Shalala (99.14%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

09/02/2020 10/13/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Maria Elvira Salazar (I) Rep. Donna Shalala (W) Frank E. Polo, Sr.  
PartyRepublican Democratic Independent Republican  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes176,141 (51.36%) 166,758 (48.62%) 76 (0.02%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -9,383 (-2.74%) -176,065 (-51.33%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 10/14 $421,154.34 10/14 $665,953.81 $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Website]  
Entry Date 08/01/2019 00/00/2020 09/03/2019  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (2 from 2 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg43.04%-- 48.11%-- 0.00%--  
Bendixen & Amandi 
10/09/20-10/13/20
43.00% -- 50.00% -- 0.00% --
1892 Polling 
09/02/20-09/03/20
45.50% -- 42.80% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


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DISCUSSION
[View All
6
Previous Messages]
 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
Thu, August 1, 2019 06:41:48 PM UTC0:00
It would hurt more than help with this being an area where Democrats will be doing a lot of groundwork for the presidential race.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Thu, August 1, 2019 06:47:33 PM UTC0:00
Thought so. Wish I could find 2018 results by congressional district to see how Gillum/DeSantis or Nelson/Scott fared compared to Shalala/Salazar.

 
D:10229State Legislatures Big Fan ( 73.5658 points)
Thu, August 1, 2019 09:11:21 PM UTC0:00
@IndyGeorgia, I think this is what you are looking for!
[Link]

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 382.3727 points)
Thu, August 1, 2019 10:21:19 PM UTC0:00
Great find, NJ-D3!

The comparison chart that IndyGeorgia was looking for is a bit more than halfway down the page of your link. It shows the percentages in the 27th district for Shalala 51.7%/Salazar 45.8%; Gillum 54.8%/DeSantis 44.1%; and Nelson 56.1%/Scott 43.85, concluding that "Indeed in the end Shalala won by 6 points, a decent win but smaller than Gillum or Nelson in the district."

To me, that appears to make Shalala very vulnerable should the vote turn-out wind up more reddish next year.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4353.9746 points)
Wed, November 18, 2020 11:13:58 PM UTC0:00
looking at the precinct map, the change% can be noticed in the more Cuban parts of the district... also in Miami Beach, which likely didn't help Shalala much either (Biden won this district while Shalala lost)

 
I:10200Jeaux ( 85.0405 points)
x2
Thu, November 19, 2020 01:44:06 PM UTC0:00
I think Shalala barely getting across the line in 2018 and now her losing in 2020 is proof she wasn't that great of a candidate.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4353.9746 points)
Thu, November 19, 2020 07:31:46 PM UTC0:00
of course for all the complaints about Shalala being a bad candidate for not speaking Spanish/etc... her original 2018 primary victory came because she did better in Miami than in Miami Beach.

If Kristen Rosen Gonzalez just did better outside of Miami Beach, then we'd be talking about how David Richardson was a bad candidate who lost a winnable district.