Can someone delete one of the Iowa polls. Multiple people happened to put them in around the same time.

Can someone delete one of the Iowa polls. Multiple people happened to put them in around the same time. Just to let you know, PPP polls are generally Methodology: Voters and Contact Type: Automated Land Line, Internet Survey Cellphone.

I knew Iowa would be had to win, but damn.

I knew Iowa would be had to win, but damn. I would warn that this could be another Quinnipiac/Wisconsin situation. Both are high-quality firms, but we need a more holistic picture of the data.

Of course.

I knew Iowa would be had to win, but damn. Democratic presidential candidates had been overperforming relative to the demographics of the state, so this might be the new normal. Of course Republicans have been overperforming in Texas, so that would seem like a reasonable trade.

Like MN, IA's rural areas stayed Democratic longer then other areas, but collapsed recently. Unlike MN, IA doesn't have a big metropolis to compensate.

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1316476489974648841

The Monmouth poll has Biden ahead 71-28 among people who have already voted, but as of now the party breakdown of people who have already voted is 53.3 Democratic to 30.0 Republican. The poll subset is a small sample size, and the breakdown of people who have already voted was probably somewhat more Democratic at the time of the poll than now, but it implies that independents are breaking strongly for Biden. https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

yeah, Monmouth had 501 registered voters, so 37% of 501 is 185. So there might be a slight problem with weighting a wonky sample.

Quinnipiac is showing up to not get stuck with Biden+5 in Iowa as a final poll

Quinnipiac is showing up to not get stuck with Biden+5 in Iowa as a final poll Instead they have Biden +5 in Ohio. Quinnipiac is gonna be Quinnipiac.