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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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CA District 48
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| Parents |
> United States > California > CA - District 48
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| Office | House of Representatives |
| Honorific | Representative - Abbr: Rep. |
| Type | General Election |
| Filing Deadline | March 13, 2020 - 07:00pm Central |
| Polls Open | November 03, 2020 - 09:00am Central |
| Polls Close | November 03, 2020 - 10:00pm Central |
| Term Start | January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm |
| Term End | January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm |
| Turnout |
98.68% Registered
61.82% Total Population
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| Contributor | RP |
| Last Modified | RBH December 12, 2020 08:42pm |
| Data Sources | [Link] |
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| DISCUSSION |
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| [View All 32 Previous Messages] |
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From what I’ve read, Orange County has counted particularly fast and the remaining mail in ballots in this seat are likely around the 8,000 to 10,000 vote range. Very unlikely that Steel doesn’t win but networks are being very careful about calling seats in California.
From what I’ve read, Orange County has counted particularly fast and the remaining mail in ballots in this seat are likely around the 8,000 to 10,000 vote range. Very unlikely that Steel doesn’t win but networks are being very careful about calling seats in California.
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 D:6086 | Jason (11889.0225 points)
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Mon, November 9, 2020 12:47:45 AM UTC0:00
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A lot of suburban voters are going to remember how much they hate the poors in 2022, so districts like these are going red regardless.
A lot of suburban voters are going to remember how much they hate the poors in 2022, so districts like these are going red regardless.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
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Mon, November 9, 2020 01:56:02 AM UTC0:00
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I'm sure the California redistricting board is gonna have lots of fun trying to draw Congressional seats for 2022
I'm sure the California redistricting board is gonna have lots of fun trying to draw Congressional seats for 2022
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Honestly I wouldn’t even consider this seat to be as suburban as people label it, this is really kind of a luxury coastal city. Very exclusive coastal neighborhoods with maybe only the far western portion of the district around Huntington Beach and fountain valley having middle class communities.
Honestly I wouldn’t even consider this seat to be as suburban as people label it, this is really kind of a luxury coastal city. Very exclusive coastal neighborhoods with maybe only the far western portion of the district around Huntington Beach and fountain valley having middle class communities.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Tue, November 10, 2020 06:30:37 PM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1326226650208464899?s=20
?s=20
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Tue, November 10, 2020 06:47:18 PM UTC0:00
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Rouda apparently also announced he's running in 2022 after he conceded.
Rouda apparently also announced he's running in 2022 after he conceded.
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| Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Tue, November 10, 2020 06:48:54 PM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/HarleyRouda/status/1326223203216236544?s=20
?s=20
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| BEER:10271 | WSNJ ( 446.1584 points)
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Tue, November 10, 2020 10:02:57 PM UTC0:00
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So happy with all these GOP pickups!
So happy with all these GOP pickups!
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| I:9951 | E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
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Tue, November 10, 2020 10:25:31 PM UTC0:00
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They prove me right again, but MSM does not care....
They prove me right again, but MSM does not care....
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| D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Tue, November 10, 2020 10:51:25 PM UTC0:00
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A big part of Rouda's win in 2018 was that he was running against Dana Rohrabacher. Against a normal opponent I think this was the most difficult of the Democrats' 2018 Orange County pickups to hold on to.
A big part of Rouda's win in 2018 was that he was running against Dana Rohrabacher. Against a normal opponent I think this was the most difficult of the Democrats' 2018 Orange County pickups to hold on to.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
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Mon, December 7, 2020 09:26:41 PM UTC0:00
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Garden Grove
2018: Rouda 2830, Rohrabacher 2336
2020: Steel 4409, Rouda 3841
Westminster
2018: Rohrabacher 5419, Rouda 5258
2020: Steel 9651, Rouda 7233
So, a slight difference in candidate quality (and a swing among Vietnamese-American voters) may have made a difference
Newport Beach went from 22502-19634 for Rohrabacher to 31524-22917 for Steel
Garden Grove
2018: Rouda 2830, Rohrabacher 2336
2020: Steel 4409, Rouda 3841
Westminster
2018: Rohrabacher 5419, Rouda 5258
2020: Steel 9651, Rouda 7233
So, a slight difference in candidate quality (and a swing among Vietnamese-American voters) may have made a difference
Newport Beach went from 22502-19634 for Rohrabacher to 31524-22917 for Steel
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| D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Mon, December 7, 2020 10:19:54 PM UTC0:00
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So, a slight difference in candidate quality (and a swing among Vietnamese-American voters) may have made a difference
It was more than a slight difference in candidate quality - Rohrabacher was a particularly bad candidate which made it possible for Rouda to win this seat. It will be interesting to see what happens to all these competitive Orange County seats after redistricting.
RBH: So, a slight difference in candidate quality (and a swing among Vietnamese-American voters) may have made a difference
It was more than a slight difference in candidate quality - Rohrabacher was a particularly bad candidate which made it possible for Rouda to win this seat. It will be interesting to see what happens to all these competitive Orange County seats after redistricting.
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| D:1989 | RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
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Mon, December 7, 2020 11:47:19 PM UTC0:00
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Lowenthal's district, which includes part of Orange, could lose some of their Orange County turf, which could boost Steel since the parts of Orange County represented by Lowenthal are more of Westminster/Garden Grove.
If they keep this district more on the sea, then it could lose some turf in the bluer southeastern end to Porter's district.
Also, CA39 is one where it could be redrawn in a few new ways.
Lowenthal's district, which includes part of Orange, could lose some of their Orange County turf, which could boost Steel since the parts of Orange County represented by Lowenthal are more of Westminster/Garden Grove.
If they keep this district more on the sea, then it could lose some turf in the bluer southeastern end to Porter's district.
Also, CA39 is one where it could be redrawn in a few new ways.
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