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  KY US Senate - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Kentucky > Senate Class II
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline January 10, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open June 23, 2020 - 05:00am Central
Polls Close June 23, 2020 - 05:00pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2027 - 12:00pm
ContributorE Pluribus Unum
Last ModifiedState Legislatures Big Fan January 19, 2021 08:38pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2014
NameMitch McConnell Votes806,787 (56.19%)
Term01/03/2015 - 01/03/2021 Margin222,089 (+15.47%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/03/2020
NameMitch McConnell Votes1,233,315 (57.76%)
Term01/03/2021 - 01/03/2027 Margin417,058 (+19.53%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceKY US Senate 11/03/2020
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/13/2019 06/23/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Amy McGrath 4 2 1 3
Charles Booker 6 ------
Leaning Call: Amy McGrath (79.31%)
Weighted Call: Amy McGrath (58.23%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/13/2020 06/15/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Amy McGrath St. Rep. Charles Booker Mike Broihier Auditor Mary Ann Tobin Maggie Jo Hilliard Andrew J. Maynard Bennie J. Smith
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 247,037 (45.41%) 231,888 (42.62%) 27,175 (5.00%) 11,108 (2.04%) 6,224 (1.14%) 5,974 (1.10%) 5,040 (0.93%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -15,149 (-2.78%) -219,862 (-40.41%) -235,929 (-43.36%) -240,813 (-44.26%) -241,063 (-44.31%) -241,997 (-44.48%)
Predict Avg.43.00% 40.00% 10.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 6/3 $19,333,438.00 $0.00 12/31 $4,611.02 $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 07/09/2019 01/08/2020 07/18/2019 01/10/2020 01/07/2020 11/12/2019 07/20/2019
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (1 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg36.00%-- 44.00%-- 4.00%-- 1.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Civiqs 
06/13/20-06/15/20
36.00% -- 44.00% -- 4.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Jimmy Ausbrooks Eric Rothmuller John R. Sharpensteen  
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 3,629 (0.67%) 2,995 (0.55%) 2,992 (0.55%)  
Margin-243,408 (-44.74%) -244,042 (-44.86%) -244,045 (-44.86%)  
Predict Avg.2.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 06/05/2019
Dropped Out
05/29/2020
12/19/2019 11/21/2019  
MATCHUP POLLS (1 from 1 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Civiqs 
06/13/20-06/15/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Steve Cox (D)
Nov 28, 2017 - Jan 11, 2020
Matt Jones (D)
Nov 15, 2019
Jim Gray (D)
 00, 2019

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
05/12/2020 Charles Booker vs Amy McGrath TVAd Contrast eng The Real Democrat (30s)  00:00:30 data 
04/09/2020 Jimmy Ausbrooks TVAd Biography eng Jimmy Ausbrooks (4-09-2020)  00:04:03 data 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
[View All
28
Previous Messages]
 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1532.0786 points)
x5
Tue, July 9, 2019 05:47:06 PM UTC0:00
Considering in 2016 not a single state voted for a presidential candidate/senate candidate from opposing parties, this new trend of down ballot sweeps will only likely be more cemented in heavily partisan states like Kentucky.

 
D:10267ev0lv ( 162.6128 points)
Mon, September 2, 2019 05:48:35 PM UTC0:00
Accidentally added "Write-In" when attempting to save, I'm dumb

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, October 10, 2019 05:36:45 PM UTC0:00
McGrath raised $10.7 million in Q3.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1532.0786 points)
Thu, October 10, 2019 09:30:20 PM UTC0:00
The great thing about candidates like McGrath, Abrams, Beto, etc., is that although they may not prove victorious in their own respective races, they still help to generate turnout and enthusiasm which helps Democratic candidates up and down the ballot in each of these states to varying degrees.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Sat, January 11, 2020 12:22:09 AM UTC0:00
Cox is the only candidate listed here who didn't file. He did tweet about driving to Frankfort (the capital) today but nothing since.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, June 25, 2020 07:06:09 PM UTC0:00
Well well well....

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Thu, June 25, 2020 07:46:23 PM UTC0:00
What does McGrath do with all of the leftover campaign money, assuming she didn't spend it all in the final weeks? Can she transfer it if she didn't think she would want to run again? Does she set up the Amy McGrath Institute?

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, June 25, 2020 08:07:34 PM UTC0:00
IndyGeorgia: What does McGrath do with all of the leftover campaign money, assuming she didn't spend it all in the final weeks? Can she transfer it if she didn't think she would want to run again? Does she set up the Amy McGrath Institute?

Use it as tissues to wipe her tears 😂😂😂.

I'm feelin good tonight

 
I:9841Thomas_Zane_Stepp ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, June 25, 2020 09:40:10 PM UTC0:00
With jefferson and fayette counties accounted for, I'd say this favors Booker

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
x2
Tue, June 30, 2020 04:24:00 PM UTC0:00
Guess McGrath has something to do with the campaign money, after all.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 05:20:24 PM UTC0:00
Well well well...

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 05:24:58 PM UTC0:00
After McGrath loses by 20, cue all the Bernie bros saying Booker would have won...

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 05:34:36 PM UTC0:00
?s=20

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 05:57:28 PM UTC0:00
I was curious to see how the "Hood to the Holler" campaign would go; I think it would have surprised people. Regardless, I don't think Charles Booker is going anywhere. He was authentic and debated very well. McGrath was bleeding votes; if the campaign had gone another week (and McGrath hadn't banked mail-in votes), Booker would have won.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 06:04:44 PM UTC0:00
Oh here we go...

Is there an independent source that corroborates this? I searched "Fayette County KY 6000 rejected" and got a subreddit linking to this tweet and a YouTube claiming voting suppression.

Is the conspiracy here that a GOP Secretary of State conspired with the DNC/DSCC to have McGrath win the primary?

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 06:51:24 PM UTC0:00
WA Indy:
Is the conspiracy here that a GOP Secretary of State conspired with the DNC/DSCC to have McGrath win the primary?

How dare I want every vote counted, thats really inconsiderate of me

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 07:10:52 PM UTC0:00
We just gonna ignore the request for an independent source and go straight to you being she democracy martyr? Good conversation, as always.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 07:19:57 PM UTC0:00
If anything, Booker should be happy with the result of this primary. He came up short, but he built up a lot of good will in the state and nationally and doesn't have to risk a big loss to McConnell to ruin his momentum. I don't see him winning a statewide race anytime in the near future, but he could run for Yarmuth's district whenever he steps down.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 07:22:25 PM UTC0:00
WA Indy: We just gonna ignore the request for an independent source and go straight to you being she democracy martyr? Good conversation, as always.

The Booker campaigns been on top of this and has been trying to get all the ballots counted.

If all votes are counted and McGrath walks out the victor, democracy wins again...

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 07:24:27 PM UTC0:00
I'm ready for IRV in primaries so we find new ways to complain when our favorite candidates don't win

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 07:36:07 PM UTC0:00
RBH: I'm ready for IRV in primaries so we find new ways to complain when our favorite candidates don't win
I want IRV for more than Primary...

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 07:42:02 PM UTC0:00
IRV would probably make more of a direct impact for primaries. IRV's impact on general elections is more of a "we don't have to argue as much about spoiler effects" thing.

Obviously the sample size isn't huge, but it seems difficult in most situations for somebody who isn't in 1st/2nd place in the first count to get into first by the end, so actually getting third parties elected through IRV might involve having them start off in 2nd place.

 
POUM:6380Zeus the Moose ( 691.4546 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 08:12:41 PM UTC0:00
RBH: IRV would probably make more of a direct impact for primaries. IRV's impact on general elections is more of a "we don't have to argue as much about spoiler effects" thing.

Obviously the sample size isn't huge, but it seems difficult in most situations for somebody who isn't in 1st/2nd place in the first count to get into first by the end, so actually getting third parties elected through IRV might involve having them start off in 2nd place.

fwiw the counterpoint is that, with IRV established, there would be instances where voters would be more likely to choose a "third party" candidate as their first option, thereby increasing their chances of coming in second, but even that I feel like is a low probability, at least in the short term. This is actually one of the reasons why- even though I support IRV/RCV referenda and similar measures when they come up- I don't think it's actually a particularly meaningful reform (especially when you consider how completely awful ballot access can be in the first place)

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 08:34:43 PM UTC0:00
IRV in primaries (and also in local elections) might bring out more candidates, which is a positive since some municipal elections just aren't usually interesting.

The ballot access awfulness might be made worse by IRV if they don't let non-final results factor into qualifying by reaching a certain percent. Sorta like how California party qualifications are all voter reg since top two eliminates most opportunities for third parties to make it to November for a statewide election.

Some form of deposit ala British elections where non-major party candidates can reach the ballot easier could be a good idea if the bar is set in a reasonable place. Some of the smaller parties are essentially clubs, so they would be in a better spot to just pick their nominees, drop some money, and then lose the deposit.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, June 30, 2020 09:22:53 PM UTC0:00
I'm liking the combo of a top-two IRV open primary with a regular general election (with the 2 candidates and possible write-ins.)

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