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  TX US Senate - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Texas > Senate Class II
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open March 03, 2020 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close March 03, 2020 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
ContributorE Pluribus Unum
Last ModifiedRP September 20, 2023 10:31pm
Data Sources
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2014
NameJohn Cornyn Votes2,861,531 (61.56%)
Term01/03/2015 - 01/03/2021 Margin1,264,144 (+27.20%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/03/2020
NameJohn Cornyn Votes5,962,983 (53.51%)
Term01/03/2021 - 01/03/2027 Margin1,074,219 (+9.64%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceTX US Senate 11/03/2020
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
02/28/2019 03/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Mary Jennings "MJ" Hegar 7 2 --1
Leaning Call: Mary Jennings "MJ" Hegar (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Mary Jennings "MJ" Hegar (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/05/2019 02/26/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Mary Jennings "MJ" Hegar St. Sen. Royce West Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez Annie "Mama" Garcia City Councillor Amanda K. Edwards Rep. Chris Bell Sema Hernandez
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 417,160 (22.32%) 274,074 (14.66%) 246,659 (13.19%) 191,900 (10.27%) 189,624 (10.14%) 159,751 (8.55%) 137,892 (7.38%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -143,086 (-7.65%) -170,501 (-9.12%) -225,260 (-12.05%) -227,536 (-12.17%) -257,409 (-13.77%) -279,268 (-14.94%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Campaign Site]
Entry Date 04/23/2019 07/22/2019 08/12/2019 12/06/2019 07/18/2019 11/25/2019 00/00/2018
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (10 from 7 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg16.99%-- 7.80%-- 8.06%-- 5.45%-- 5.58%-- 6.68%-- 4.79%--
YouGov 
02/21/20-02/26/20
20.00% -- 10.00% -- 10.00% -- 6.00% -- 6.00% -- 8.00% -- 5.00% --
University of Texas-Austin 
01/31/20-02/09/20
22.00% 10.0 6.00% 1.0 9.00% 5.0 5.00% -- 6.00% 2.0 7.00% 4.0 5.00% 1.0
University of Texas - Tyler 
01/21/20-01/30/20
9.00% 0.5 6.00% 2.3 4.00% 5.4 6.00% -- 4.00% 4.1 5.00% 2.4 4.00% --
Texas Lyceum 
01/10/20-01/19/20
11.00% -- 8.00% -- 7.00% -- 4.00% -- 6.00% -- 5.00% -- 5.00% --
University of Texas - Tyler 
11/05/19-11/14/19
8.50% -- 8.30% -- 9.40% -- 0.00% -- 8.10% -- 7.40% -- 0.00% --
University of Texas-Austin 
10/18/19-10/27/19
12.00% 1.0 5.00% -- 4.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 4.00% 2.0 3.00% 1.0 6.00% 3.0
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
DFL IDMN
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Michael Cooper Victor Hugo Harris Adrian Ocegueda Jack Daniel Foster Jr. Darrel Reece Hunter  
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 92,463 (4.95%) 59,710 (3.19%) 41,566 (2.22%) 31,718 (1.70%) 26,902 (1.44%)  
Margin-324,697 (-17.37%) -357,450 (-19.12%) -375,594 (-20.09%) -385,442 (-20.62%) -390,258 (-20.88%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website [Website]  
Entry Date 12/05/2019 12/04/2019 12/04/2019 11/20/2019 12/08/2019  
MATCHUP POLLS (10 from 7 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg5.99%-- 3.80%-- 1.71%-- 1.80%-- 1.20%--  
YouGov 
02/21/20-02/26/20
8.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Texas-Austin 
01/31/20-02/09/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% 2.0 0.00% --
University of Texas - Tyler 
01/21/20-01/30/20
3.00% -- 3.00% -- 1.00% -- 3.00% -- 2.00% --
Texas Lyceum 
01/10/20-01/19/20
5.00% -- 5.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Texas - Tyler 
11/05/19-11/14/19
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Texas-Austin 
10/18/19-10/27/19
0.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Joaquín Castro (D)
May 01, 2019
Wendy R. Davis (D)
Apr 05, 2019
Beto O'Rourke (D)
Feb 27, 2019
Julián Castro (D)
Jan 12, 2019

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 28, 2019 03:25pm News Democratic candidates for Senate offer contrasting views on guns, health care, beating John Cornyn  Article EastTexasDem 

DISCUSSION
[View All
28
Previous Messages]
 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 228.9742 points)
Thu, May 2, 2019 02:01:38 AM UTC0:00
Colorado won't be competitive at all and Gardner probably loses by 6% minimum.

Texas will be quite competitive, because the demographics are changing fast and it doesn't always take an A List candidate (whatever that really means) to win.

 
?:801400 ( 284.4383 points)
Thu, May 2, 2019 03:37:16 AM UTC0:00
I've missed the demographics are destiny argument (circa 2008). Hello old friend!

 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 228.9742 points)
Thu, May 2, 2019 03:49:44 AM UTC0:00
Apparently several of the statewide races being decided by single digits isn't enough to convince some people. And when I say demographics I mean the suburban, educated vote that Trump has heavily alienated.

 
D:10229State Legislatures Big Fan ( 45.3722 points)
Thu, May 2, 2019 04:33:53 PM UTC0:00
Jesus Christ, I wonder how people at DSCC react to 2 recruiting failures in a single week.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Thu, May 2, 2019 05:41:40 PM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: Yet another Senate recruiting fail for Democrats with Castro out. Granted it would have been an uphill battle. All that is left is B List or C List.

Any Democrat has structural challenges running in Texas and any chance at winning would need a) a strong campaign themselves and b) the presidential nominee to compete in Texas. Hegar ran a strong campaign for Congress so I don't see why she wouldn't do so again for Senate.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Thu, May 2, 2019 08:10:13 PM UTC0:00
State Legislatures Big Fan: Jesus Christ, I wonder how people at DSCC react to 2 recruiting failures in a single week.

It's part of the job. The difference is in how the narrative about Democrats being in crisis or blowing their chances takes hold.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Sat, June 22, 2019 01:11:14 AM UTC0:00
Royce West met with Chuck Schumer about running for senate. [Link]

 
I:10305Sergeant Hooker ( 122.9027 points)
Mon, June 24, 2019 02:58:13 PM UTC0:00
I don't think West will run.

 
D:10313The Hunt-isto ( 73.6527 points)
Thu, July 18, 2019 04:46:15 PM UTC0:00
Edwards announcing her candidacy for the US Senate

[Link]

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, January 28, 2020 08:37:33 PM UTC0:00
Bell needs to just give it up. Nobody wants him in political office anymore.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Fri, February 21, 2020 06:42:07 PM UTC0:00
Not that any of the candidates have as great a chance of winning as Beto in 2018, but an AOC-backed candidate as the nominee would be electoral poison in Texas.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Fri, February 21, 2020 07:08:22 PM UTC0:00
EastTexasDem: Not that any of the candidates have as great a chance of winning as Beto in 2018, but an AOC-backed candidate as the nominee would be electoral poison in Texas.

Partly debatable, Texas is growing more and more Purple maybe AOC won't be as poisonous as you think. Especially since Cornyn isn't exactly in the top 10 Most well known/liked Senators at the moment...

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Fri, February 21, 2020 07:33:05 PM UTC0:00
*Maybe* several years down the line, but as of right now, a lot of the Democratic gains being made in the state are coming from suburban areas, which are more moderate. I can't really see her doing well in counties like Tarrant, Williamson, or Fort Bend, for example. Also, Cornyn benefits from not being as much of a national figure as Cruz, and doesn't come off as odious by comparison.

In reality though, almost no one here is paying attention to this race and the nominee's performance will likely be tied to the down-ballot effects of the Presidential nominee.

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Fri, February 21, 2020 08:40:58 PM UTC0:00
Here's video of the recent Dem Primary debate for United States Senator, which was broadcasted by ABC 24 KVUE-TV Austin:


 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Sat, February 22, 2020 05:17:10 PM UTC0:00
Sad to see Sema's campaign resorting to calling her opponent's campaign racist. This guy should've been fired immediately. This is no way to win


 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Sat, February 22, 2020 05:31:54 PM UTC0:00
To be fair Cristina did claim that her name was more Mexican than her opponents last names despite the fact it wasn't her birth name and she only took that last name cause it was more interesting”
[Link]
[Link]

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Sun, February 23, 2020 05:37:15 AM UTC0:00
Yeah, I saw that. Still not a good look from Sema's campaign though.

I have realized that there are Leftists who are so woke that they genuinely believe anyone who isn't as Left-wing as them is a racist. In fact, I was sadly once one of those types. So glad I am over that.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Sun, February 23, 2020 05:55:32 AM UTC0:00
Well I mean, everyone who isn't as left as me is a racist, but that's beside the point...

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Mon, February 24, 2020 04:08:48 PM UTC0:00
If anybody has to guess. Who do you see advancing to the May 26th Runoff ?

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, March 5, 2020 06:30:22 PM UTC0:00
Hegar vs. West in the May 26th Runoff:

[Link]

Hegar will be favored to win the runoff since the DSCC is backing her 100%.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
x2
Thu, March 5, 2020 06:56:24 PM UTC0:00
This might be a great example of votesplitting determining who makes a runoff.

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Fri, March 6, 2020 04:33:05 PM UTC0:00
Hegar will win the runoff in 2 months, but lose to Cornyn by double digits in the general.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Tue, March 17, 2020 01:04:55 AM UTC0:00
Garcia and Ramirez carved up south Texas on the map. And Hegar/West rode waves in their home areas.

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