Unless Marshall wins the R primary this is going to 100% be a Dem flip

Absolutely not. This is still Kansas we are talking about. Kobach is a terrible candidate and I absolutely am rooting for Marshall, but even Kobach starts as a slight favorite.

I wouldn't say Kobach makes it an automatic flip, but he would put it in play, which is the last thing McConnell wants. Kobach is a proven bad candidate since he lost to Laura Kelly and Bollier is of the same mold as Kelly, if not more to the right as a former Republican. It's in play, but nothing is guaranteed with Kobach as the nominee

Does anyone think Boiler could narrowly pull this off. Maybe a bit of a Heidkamp 2012 style victory

Does anyone think Boiler could narrowly pull this off. Maybe a bit of a Heitkamp 2012 style victory While Bollier has relatively high cross-over appeal, I think it would take a Biden blowout win (12-15 points nationally) to get Kansas close enough so Bollier could win.

I wouldn't count on it. Bollier winning here would indicate something truly disastrous occurred for the GOP on election night, exceeding that of 2006-2008. Which is hard to bank on when Trump's diehard supporters essentially prevent him from dropping below 45% nationwide. It's also worth noting Kansas has given Democrats some false hope during the Brownback era; look no further than this very same race in 2014. Voters here may be inclined to vote Democratic at the state level if perfect storm conditions of GOP incompetence are met, but this is a federal race with different issues being prioritized.

I generally agree with these comments. Although Bollier is polling first here at OC, 538 thinks she will lose by a 51-46% margin. She has more cash than Marshall, but this is one of those races where I just don't know if she can pull it off.