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  KS US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Kansas > Senate Class II
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2020 - 04:30pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
ContributorRBH
Last ModifiedIndyGeorgia October 16, 2020 09:29am
Data Sources
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2014
NamePat Roberts Votes460,350 (53.15%)
Term01/03/2015 - 01/03/2021 Margin91,978 (+10.62%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 04, 2020 KS US Senate - D Primary
Barbara Bollier
D 197,756
Aug 04, 2020 KS US Senate - R Primary
Roger Marshall
R 416,563
United States 1959 - MAP
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/28/2018 10/24/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Roger Marshall 9 14 1 1
Barbara Bollier 1 ------
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Roger Marshall (95.65%)
Weighted Call: Roger Marshall (99.42%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/09/2019 10/20/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name St. Sen. Barbara Bollier Rep. Roger Marshall Jason Buckley  
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian  
Campaign Logo  
Predict Avg.47.50% 50.50% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 9/30 $7,558,952.00 6/30 $1,400,091.88
Donate
$--  
Website [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 10/16/2019 09/07/2019 05/28/2020  
MATCHUP POLLS (17 from 12 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg44.53%-- 44.05%-- 2.39%--  
New!Public Policy Polling 
10/19/20-10/20/20
43.00% -- 43.00% -- 5.00% --
New!co/efficient 
10/18/20-10/20/20
39.00% -- 51.00% 8.0 2.00% --
New!Siena Research Institute 
10/18/20-10/20/20
42.00% -- 46.00% -- 4.00% --
VCreek/AMG 
09/29/20-09/30/20
45.39% -- 41.87% -- 1.58% --
Civiqs 
09/26/20-09/29/20
43.00% -- 50.00% -- 0.00% --
GBA Strategies (D) 
09/24/20-09/27/20
45.00% -- 43.00% -- 7.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
09/07/2020 vs Barbara Bollier TVAd Attack eng Hear This  00:00:30 RP 
06/04/2020 vs Roger Marshall TVAd Attack eng Say Anything  00:00:30 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
[View All
1
Previous Messages]
 
SNP:8431Progressive Scot ( 299.6339 points)
Thu, October 22, 2020 06:54:35 PM UTC0:00
Does anyone think Boiler could narrowly pull this off. Maybe a bit of a Heidkamp 2012 style victory

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 3898.8259 points)
Thu, October 22, 2020 07:13:00 PM UTC0:00
Progressive Scot: Does anyone think Boiler could narrowly pull this off. Maybe a bit of a Heitkamp 2012 style victory

While Bollier has relatively high cross-over appeal, I think it would take a Biden blowout win (12-15 points nationally) to get Kansas close enough so Bollier could win.

 
D:6086Jason ( 9234.4189 points)
Thu, October 22, 2020 07:52:27 PM UTC0:00
I wouldn't count on it. Bollier winning here would indicate something truly disastrous occurred for the GOP on election night, exceeding that of 2006-2008. Which is hard to bank on when Trump's diehard supporters essentially prevent him from dropping below 45% nationwide.

It's also worth noting Kansas has given Democrats some false hope during the Brownback era; look no further than this very same race in 2014. Voters here may be inclined to vote Democratic at the state level if perfect storm conditions of GOP incompetence are met, but this is a federal race with different issues being prioritized.

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 82.2147 points)
Thu, October 22, 2020 11:47:15 PM UTC0:00
I generally agree with these comments. Although Bollier is polling first here at OC, 538 thinks she will lose by a 51-46% margin. She has more cash than Marshall, but this is one of those races where I just don't know if she can pull it off.