Jeez I didn't even realize no democrat filled to run against Cotton.

Well I'll actually fix that cause Josh Mahony filed but then dropped out after the filing deadline so the Dems could not nominate a replacement

I think Mahony dropped out on the final day of filing which was too last minute for anybody else to qualify. The two R vs L races in Arkansas in 2018 were 73/27 and 71/29. There was only a dropoff of 32k votes from Governor to Auditor (R vs L) and 29k from Governor to Treasurer (also R vs L) Governor: R 582k, D 283k, L 26k Auditor: R 621k, L 238k Treasurer: R 611k, L 251k So out of the 309k people who voted D or L for Governor, almost 77% voted L for Auditor and over 80% voted L for Treasurer, with not a lot of votes going from D for Governor to R for Auditor/Treasurer. So if the Presidential result is something like 60/38 for Trump (it was 61/34 in 2016) then I could see a situation where Harrington is approaching 30%, depending on how many D voters skip this race. But 49/38 seems too good to be true for the Libertarian.

Most likely so. Internal and questionable pollster obviously lend to that. Possible reasons to hope a result like this is attainable: -seemingly growing anti-Cotton sentiment willing to coalesce in a two-man race; -that Ricky's likability and branding is the extreme opposite of the traditionally harsh, philosophically-aloof Libertarian candidate; -growing attention is filling his campaign coffers to be able to launch a stronger statewide campaign. Other than Rainwater in Indiana and possibly Baldes in Wyoming, this is likely now the top race for the national LP.

Arkansas voters are committed to not casting undervotes (which might be a voting machine thing). Harrington is 381,000 votes ahead of Jorgensen and 23k votes behind Biden