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  AZ US Senate - Special Election
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class III
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type Special Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2020 - 04:30pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start December 02, 2020 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
ContributorRBH
Last ModifiedRP May 13, 2021 03:26pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Special election to fill the final 2 years.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won12/18/2018
NameMartha McSally Votes1 (100.00%)
Term01/03/2019 - 12/02/2020 Margin1 (+100.00%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2022
NameMark Kelly Votes1,322,027 (51.39%)
Term01/03/2023 - 01/03/2029 Margin125,719 (+4.89%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 04, 2020 AZ US Senate - Special D Primary
Mark Kelly
D 686,071
Aug 04, 2020 AZ US Senate - Special R Primary
Martha McSally
R 732,840
Aug 04, 2020 AZ US Senate - Special LBT Primary
Barry J. Hess, II
LBT 430
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/10/2018 11/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Martha McSally 8 ------
Mark Kelly 18 17 1 --
Leaning Call: Mark Kelly (87.30%)
Weighted Call: Mark Kelly (100.04%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

02/12/2019 11/02/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Mark Kelly (I) Sen. Martha McSally (W) Matthew Dorchester (W) Nicholas Glenn (W) Debbie Simmons (W) John T. Schiess (W) Christopher Beckett
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Independent Republican Independent Republican Independent Republican Independent
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 1,716,467 (51.16%) 1,637,661 (48.81%) 379 (0.01%) 152 (0.01%) 98 (0.00%) 92 (0.00%) 69 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -78,806 (-2.35%) -1,716,088 (-51.15%) -1,716,315 (-51.15%) -1,716,369 (-51.15%) -1,716,375 (-51.15%) -1,716,398 (-51.15%)
Predict Avg.51.70% 47.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 02/12/2019 00/00/2019 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 06/01/2020
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (92 from 39 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.86%-- 44.73%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Reuters/Ipsos 
10/27/20-11/02/20		 53.00% 1.0 44.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
10/29/20-11/01/20		 52.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data for Progress 
10/27/20-11/01/20		 54.00% 3.0 46.00% 4.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/29/20-10/31/20		 50.00% 2.0 48.00% 7.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
10/22/20-10/31/20		 47.90% 0.1 44.40% 0.4 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data Orbital 
10/28/20-10/30/20		 47.00% 1.1 46.00% 4.1 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Susan Gerard 🔗
R Roberta Voss 🔗
R Diane McCarthy 🔗
D Kris Mayes 🔗
R Robin Shaw 🔗
N Kathryn "Sam" Campana 🔗
I Paul Johnson 🔗
R Jennifer J. Burns 🔗
R Pete Hershberger 🔗
LBR Old LW
D EastTexasDem
D samir7243_ATL
N Edwin E. "Buzz" Aldrin, Jr. 🔗
  US Chamber of Commerce
R Maryland Republican
BEER WSNJ
R Bensq1
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (W) Joshua Rodriguez (W) Mohammad Arif (W) Perry Kapadia (W) Matthew Haupt (W) Pat Thomas (W) Edward Davida (W) Jim Stevens
PartyUnited Independent Democrat Independent Democrat Independent Independent Republican Independent Republican No Party Affiliation
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 69 (0.00%) 68 (0.00%) 58 (0.00%) 37 (0.00%) 29 (0.00%) 28 (0.00%) 23 (0.00%)
Margin-1,716,398 (-51.15%) -1,716,399 (-51.15%) -1,716,409 (-51.15%) -1,716,430 (-51.16%) -1,716,438 (-51.16%) -1,716,439 (-51.16%) -1,716,444 (-51.16%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 06/01/2020
MATCHUP POLLS (92 from 39 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Reuters/Ipsos 
10/27/20-11/02/20		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
10/29/20-11/01/20		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data for Progress 
10/27/20-11/01/20		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/29/20-10/31/20		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
10/22/20-10/31/20		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Data Orbital 
10/28/20-10/30/20		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 5 MORE CANDIDATES


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
08/14/2020 Martha McSally vs Mark Kelly TVAd Biography eng Surprise  00:00:30 data 
07/30/2020 Mark Kelly TVAd Biography eng Work Hard  00:00:30 RP 
06/22/2020 Martha McSally TVAd Issue eng Dependence  00:00:30 RP 
06/05/2020 Martha McSally vs Mark Kelly TVAd Attack eng American Workers  00:00:30 RP 
05/15/2020 Martha McSally TVAd Issue eng Never Trust  00:00:30 RP 
04/29/2020 Martha McSally TVAd Feel Good eng Kristen  00:01:00 RP 
04/20/2020 vs Martha McSally TVAd Attack spa Lucía  00:00:30 RP 

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