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  LA Secretary of State - Special Runoff
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Louisiana > Secretary of State
OfficeSecretary of State
Type Special Election
Filing Deadline July 20, 2018 - 04:30pm Central
Polls Open December 08, 2018 - 05:00pm Central
Polls Close December 08, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start December 09, 2018 - 12:00pm
Term End January 13, 2020 - 12:00pm
Turnout 8.81% Registered 11.40% Total Population
ContributorRBH
Last ModifiedRBH December 08, 2018 10:25pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won05/01/2018
NameR. Kyle Ardoin Votes1 (100.00%)
Term05/08/2018 - 12/09/2018 Margin1 (+100.00%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Nov 06, 2018 LA Secretary of State - Special Election R. Kyle Ardoin
R 907,125D 528,213NPA 21,579
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/09/2018 12/08/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
R. Kyle Ardoin 1 --3 4
Leaning Call: R. Kyle Ardoin (100.00%)
Weighted Call: R. Kyle Ardoin (100.00%)

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Secretary of State R. Kyle Ardoin Gwen Collins-Greenup  
PartyRepublican Democratic  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes306,558 (59.34%) 210,080 (40.66%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -96,478 (-18.67%)  
Predict Avg.63.50% 36.50%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 07/20/2018 07/20/2018  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (0 from 0 pollsters)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


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DISCUSSION
 
D:9362An62190 ( 279.7150 points)
Sun, December 9, 2018 02:24:14 AM UTC0:00
I’d like to ask why the estimated final predicts such a gigantic turnout for this race?

 
D:1989RBH ( 2556.0742 points)
Sun, December 9, 2018 02:27:28 AM UTC0:00
the absentee totals are gonna skew the expected vote totals, especially in a larger parish where it's multiplying the absentee total by like 173 or something

the turnout will be at a more realistic estimate as more precincts report

so, just ignore the vote totals and pay more attention to percentages if you must

 
D:1RP ( 3598.5261 points)
Sun, December 9, 2018 05:41:59 AM UTC0:00
Short of making separate data boxes for them, I'm not sure what to do with early votes and late votes...

 
D:1989RBH ( 2556.0742 points)
Sun, December 9, 2018 08:17:51 PM UTC0:00
yeah, it's a quirk that resolves itself quickly once more results come in.

The last batch of outstanding precincts were mostly New Orleans precincts and the estimate had Ardoin around 306k and Collins-Greenup around 216k. So it nailed the Ardoin total and overestimated C-G total based on how heavily Dem New Orleans is.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 11.2748 points)
Mon, December 10, 2018 05:18:53 PM UTC0:00
LA Dems haven't won this office since 1987.