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  ME US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Maine > Senate Class II
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline 00, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 05:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2027 - 12:00pm
Turnout 77.04% Registered 61.67% Total Population
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedRBH November 24, 2020 01:37pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2014
NameSusan Collins Votes413,495 (68.46%)
Term01/03/2015 - 01/03/2021 Margin223,251 (+36.96%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jul 14, 2020 ME US Senate - D Primary
Sara Gideon
D 162,681
Jul 14, 2020 ME US Senate - R Primary
Susan Collins
R 88,448
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/28/2018 11/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Sara Gideon 23 6 2 --
Susan Collins 4 ----5
Tossup 3 ------
Leaning Call: Sara Gideon (60.29%)
Weighted Call: Sara Gideon (88.09%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/04/2019 11/02/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name (I) Chairman Susan Margaret Collins St. Rep. Sara I. Gideon Lisa Savage Max Patrick Linn (W) Write-In (W) Tiffany Bond (W) Ian Engelman
PartyRepublican Democratic Independent Independent Nonpartisan Independent Independent
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes417,645 (50.98%) 347,223 (42.39%) 40,579 (4.95%) 13,508 (1.65%) 228 (0.03%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -70,422 (-8.60%) -377,066 (-46.03%) -404,137 (-49.33%) -417,417 (-50.96%) -417,645 (-50.98%) -417,645 (-50.98%)
Predict Avg.48.91% 45.19% 1.67% 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- 3/31 $4,649,182.50 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 12/18/2019 06/24/2019 00/00/2020 06/16/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020 00/00/2020
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (27 from 18 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg43.26%-- 45.79%-- 3.85%-- 0.72%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Change Research 
10/29/20-11/02/20
42.00% -- 46.00% -- 7.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/29/20-10/31/20
46.00% -- 48.00% -- 5.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/23/20-10/27/20
45.00% -- 46.00% -- 4.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Colby College 
10/21/20-10/25/20
43.40% -- 46.60% -- 4.70% -- 1.70% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Pan Atlantic SMS 
10/02/20-10/06/20
39.80% 11.4 46.90% 17.8 5.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Critical Insights 
09/25/20-10/04/20
43.00% 8.0 44.00% 1.0 2.00% 3.0 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Doug Fogg  
PartyIndependent  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes0 (0.00%)  
Margin-417,645 (-50.98%)  
Predict Avg.0.00%  
Cash On Hand $--  
Website  
Entry Date 00/00/2020  
MATCHUP POLLS (27 from 18 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%--  
Change Research 
10/29/20-11/02/20
0.00% --
Emerson College 
10/29/20-10/31/20
0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/23/20-10/27/20
0.00% --
Colby College 
10/21/20-10/25/20
0.00% --
Pan Atlantic SMS 
10/02/20-10/06/20
0.00% --
Critical Insights 
09/25/20-10/04/20
0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
09/11/2020 Max Linn Event Video Mixed eng Max Linn goes off script in Maine's Senatorial Debate with Susan Collins and Sara Gideon  00:01:45 data 
09/09/2020 Susan Collins TVAd Endorsement eng Lieberman  00:00:30 RP 
09/04/2020 Lisa Savage TVAd Issue eng Lisa for Maine: You Are Not Alone - Black Lives Matter  00:00:58 data 
08/03/2020 Max Linn vs Susan Collins TVAd Biography eng It's Official! Max Linn makes his decision on running for United States Senate for Maine.  00:10:25 data 
07/30/2020 Susan Collins TVAd Defend eng Character  00:01:00 RP 
07/30/2020 Susan Collins vs Sara Gideon TVAd Defend eng Wayne  00:00:30 RP 
07/29/2020 vs Susan Collins TVAd Attack eng Trump Stooge  00:01:00 RP 
07/24/2020 Susan Collins TVAd Issue eng Earned  00:01:00 RP 
07/20/2020 Susan Collins vs Sara Gideon TVAd Contrast eng Showing Up  00:00:30 RP 
07/16/2020 vs Sara Gideon Web Only Ad Attack eng Maine's Senate seat is #NotForSale  00:00:30 RP 
07/13/2020 Susan Collins vs Sara Gideon TVAd Contrast eng Does Another  00:00:30 RP 
07/13/2020 Susan Collins TVAd Issue eng Paula  00:00:30 RP 
02/16/2020 Lisa Savage TVAd Biography eng Lisa Savage For US Senate  00:04:30 data 
10/24/2019 Sara Gideon TVAd Feel Good eng Independence  00:00:30 RP 
10/17/2019 Sara Gideon TVAd Biography eng Maine First  00:01:02 RP 
08/12/2019 vs Susan Collins TVAd Attack eng Three Generations  00:00:30 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
[View All
57
Previous Messages]
 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
Mon, July 22, 2019 10:42:58 PM UTC0:00
LePage won in midterms and not for a federal office. If Collins retires then Republicans have little chance of holding the seat. No one is as good as lying about being a moderate as she is and that's what Republicans will need to hold the seat.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Mon, July 22, 2019 10:59:54 PM UTC0:00
The ultimate Republican coup would be to have Collins retire and Snowe run for her seat. That would be the only guaranteed win for McConnell.

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 1352.2366 points)
Mon, July 22, 2019 11:11:50 PM UTC0:00
Snowe actually has a backbone IIRC, though.

 
R:9804Southern Moderate ( 0.0000 points)
Mon, July 22, 2019 11:53:32 PM UTC0:00
LePage won twice because of a third party candidate. Maine GOP has a weak bench. And Maine being a swing state is a stretch. May be trending GOP a little bit but hasn't voted for a GOP presidential candidate since 1988.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
Tue, July 23, 2019 01:05:51 AM UTC0:00
RP: I'm very concerned.
Don't understand your concern.

Concerned that Democratic takeover of this seat would be reduced with another Republican on the ticket?

I'd be concerned that this would flip to the Dems, especially with IRV.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Tue, July 23, 2019 01:15:32 AM UTC0:00
I believe RP is echoing a Susan Collins response to a controversial circumstance.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, July 23, 2019 04:09:15 AM UTC0:00
She has my thoughts and prayers.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 377.6979 points)
Fri, July 26, 2019 02:21:30 AM UTC0:00
If she runs, she'll win. Now that the bizarre Kavanaugh-the-serial-gang-rapist hysteria has died down, she looks pretty good. If she doesn't run, the Democrats would likely have a slight edge, but I'd expect a tight race regardless. Trump actually has a pretty good chance of carrying Maine (3/4 EVs, anyway).

 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
Fri, July 26, 2019 02:26:49 AM UTC0:00
I hardly think her vote for Kavanaugh is going away. Besides that she has demonstrated that she's not really a moderate and that has shown in her declining approval.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Fri, July 26, 2019 11:53:34 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: Do I ad David Gibson in a Primary for the Maine Green Independent Party or do I just add him here?

If there's little to no chance of a primary challenger you can add him here. Unless Maine reports vote totals for uncontested races.

 
D:9583Caprice ( 52.6125 points)
Sat, July 27, 2019 02:02:04 AM UTC0:00
RP: <q 9951="">Do I ad David Gibson in a Primary for the Maine Green Independent Party or do I just add him here?

If there's little to no chance of a primary challenger you can add him here. Unless Maine reports vote totals for uncontested races.
Maine reports vote totals for uncontested races.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -300.4630 points)
Sun, July 28, 2019 02:28:06 AM UTC0:00
So I add him in a Uncontested Primary?

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Sun, July 28, 2019 01:21:05 PM UTC0:00
As the only person in a normal green primary, yes. And add Green Primary Winner here.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 05:52:16 PM UTC0:00
PPP Collins: 41%, Generic Dem: 44%

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 08:33:12 PM UTC0:00
Gideon also reporting today raising $3.2 million for Q3.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 08:49:35 PM UTC0:00
And then there's the anti-Collins fund raised during the Kavanaugh thing which I think is around $4 mil.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 09:04:10 PM UTC0:00
Is that money controlled by a PAC? Or some other entity? How will that fund be distributed?

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 10:16:23 PM UTC0:00
ActBlue has it. [Link]

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
Tue, October 15, 2019 11:06:56 PM UTC0:00
Good thing she won't be running against generic Democrat.

However, I have a strong feeling Collins won't run for reelection. The polls posted today in R Primary show she isn't that popular among Maine Republican voters either in head to head match-ups.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Fri, March 13, 2020 02:45:16 PM UTC0:00

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Thu, April 16, 2020 06:00:56 PM UTC0:00
Gideon outraised Collins $7.1 million to $2.4 million in Q1. [Link]

 
R:10538Southern_Moderate2 ( 67.4474 points)
x3
Thu, April 16, 2020 06:17:25 PM UTC0:00
I really feel that Collins is being unfairly attacked. Maine isn't a massively blue state, and her ideology score is almost exactly down the middle. In fact, Govtrack has her at 0.54 and Maine's other senator, Independent Angus King, is at 0.53. Additionally, Collins is to the left of several Senate Democrats.
There have been a few high-profile votes lately where she sided with Republicans, but her overall record is very moderate and appropriate for a Republican in a purple state. It's sloppy and lazy to pinpoint a single vote and call her a faux moderate.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
x4
Thu, April 16, 2020 06:35:44 PM UTC0:00
Bah. She only sides with Democrats when they would have won even without her vote.

Susan Collins isn't a moderate, she only plays one on TV.

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 1352.2366 points)
Thu, April 16, 2020 06:57:31 PM UTC0:00
Southern_Moderate2: I really feel that Collins is being unfairly attacked. Maine isn't a massively blue state, and her ideology score is almost exactly down the middle. In fact, Govtrack has her at 0.54 and Maine's other senator, Independent Angus King, is at 0.53. Additionally, Collins is to the left of several Senate Democrats.

There have been a few high-profile votes lately where she sided with Republicans, but her overall record is very moderate and appropriate for a Republican in a purple state. It's sloppy and lazy to pinpoint a single vote and call her a faux moderate.

Back in the early 2000s, Collins may have been to the left of a couple of Democrats and (Nelson, Breaux, maybe Landrieu), but since 2009 she's given up any maverick card she may have had and fallen in line every time leadership has called.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Thu, April 16, 2020 08:18:47 PM UTC0:00
You could have made a case for Olympia Snowe being a moderate, but Collins was always a stealth conservative.