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  BRA President - Runoff
RACE DETAILS
Parents > Brazil > President
OfficePresident
HonorificPresident - Abbr: President
Type General Election
Filing Deadline August 05, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open October 28, 2018 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close October 28, 2018 - 05:00pm Central
Term Start January 01, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 01, 2023 - 12:00pm
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedIndyGeorgia December 29, 2018 04:00pm
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description Out-of-Country Votes:
Bolsonaro : 131,671
Haddad : 53,730
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyBrazilian Democratic Movement Won08/31/2016
NameMichel Temer Votes1 (100.00%)
Term08/31/2016 - 01/01/2019 Margin1 (+100.00%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyWorkers' Won10/30/2022
NameLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva Votes60,345,999 (50.90%)
Term01/01/2023 - 01/01/2027 Margin2,139,645 (+1.80%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 10, 2018 BRA President - PSOL Convention
Guilherme Boulos
PSOL 121I 2
Aug 02, 2018 BRA President - MDB Convention
Henrique Meirelles
PMDB 357NPA 62
Oct 07, 2018 BRA President
Jair Bolsonaro
PSL 49,277,010PT 31,342,051PDT 13,344,371PSDB 5,096,350NOVO 2,679,745PATRI 1,348,323
PMDB 1,288,950REDE 1,069,578PODE 859,601PSOL 617,122PSTU 55,762PSDC 41,710
PPL 30,176PTC 0PSB 0PP 0PSD 0PV 0
PCdoB 0DEM 0PSC 0PPS 0PRTB 0SD 0
PR 0PRB 0
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
10/08/2018 10/28/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Jair Bolsonaro --1 1 1
Leaning Call: Jair Bolsonaro (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Jair Bolsonaro (100.00%)

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Federal Deputy Jair Bolsonaro Mayor Fernando Haddad  
PartySocial Liberal Workers'  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 57,797,847 (55.13%) 47,040,906 (44.87%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -10,756,941 (-10.26%)  
Predict Avg.60.00% 40.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 08/05/2018 08/05/2018  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (0 from 0 pollsters)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  


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DISCUSSION
[View All
17
Previous Messages]
 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Thu, October 18, 2018 05:15:53 PM UTC0:00
What to make of this?

The typical Brazilian Praça da cidade loathed the idea of a revisit from the Lula Cirque du Macabre.

João Q. Public would rather eat dirt than keep in place the Temer deep state Corruption League.

Instead, Brazil opens its bairros to the spectacle of Bolsonaro on a tank (and quite heartily, it looks like. Epic fail by the region's pollsters).

Bolsonaro, Pindorama - How shall we appraise thee?

'Felicior Augusto, melior Traiano'... or... 'Ave, Imperator, morituri te salutant'?

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
Thu, October 18, 2018 10:47:27 PM UTC0:00
Bojicat: Some guys are worried about a return to thuh military dictatorship.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Fri, October 19, 2018 02:36:16 PM UTC0:00
I think it's a bit more complex than that. Bolsonaro demonstrates an unusual fondness for military figures and intends to lace his cabinet with brass and berets. This sentiment harks back to, and at times identifies with, the populism of strongman Getúlio Vargas. Vargas hit all the right buttons for a time, but if you dive a bit into the history of the Vargas 'era', you'll see that it did not end up well. Subsequent to Vargas saw that unpleasantness you allude to. History may repeat itself.

On a side matter, one weakness in this otherwise wonderful site are the scarce number of participants in, and civil intellectual contributions to, our 'discussion' boards, ESPECIALLY things international. This is an information-intense site, after all. We have information right at our fingerprints; in fact, we introduce this information ourselves.

We have a surfeit of eggheads here, but they're as shy as the Himalayan Yeti. GENTLEMEN, take a stab at knocking the little bean out of my noggin with interesting data we can all benefit from + the civilized discourse we should all strive to maintain.

We are LEAGUES SMARTER than these other sites, which are all devolving into slugfests of political hate, bullying and juvenilia.

I just don't understand the hesitancy.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
Fri, October 19, 2018 05:32:11 PM UTC0:00
Boijact: The odds of Afro Brazilians might get wiped out by thuh Bolsonaro-ista's considerin' it's likely he plans on dismantlin' racial quotas & other programs for minorities ?

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Tue, October 23, 2018 03:49:37 PM UTC0:00
As anticipated, Bolsonaro intends to fill up his cabinet with colonels and generals: [Link] . The public cheers this prospect.

Can't tell if we are about to endure a Rodrigo Duterte replicant in the Southern Hemisphere (quiet executions in dark alleys by goons in black) [Link] , recycle a Pinochet confrère (strongman rule, Chicago-boy uplift in the economy [Link] ) or encounter an ordinary, hard-nosed, let's-get-the-job-done activist constrained by the bureaucratic blob, offering olive branches and 'compromise' with Brazil's bear pit [Link] . Maybe all three.

Not sensible to condemn the looming Bolsonaro regime now. Let's wait and see (gulp).

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
Wed, October 24, 2018 08:49:16 PM UTC0:00
Bojicat: Unlike Duterte, Bolsonaro is ya know, like, Pro-US & wants to repair thuh diplomatic ties between thuh United States & Brazil that was strained under Lula & Rousseff.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, October 25, 2018 01:07:28 PM UTC0:00
Yes, Pinochet was a US ally too.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
Fri, October 26, 2018 12:30:11 AM UTC0:00
Bolsonaro puttin' his cabinet together:

[Link]

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Fri, October 26, 2018 05:46:39 PM UTC0:00
Polls are indicating that Bolsonaro's set to attract an overflow of popular support this Sunday, clinching 60% of the vote, "one of the biggest wins for any president since the country returned to democracy three decades ago," the WSJ reports: [Link] . About 30% of these Bolsonaro voters, according these polls, are one-time Lula/Workers Party supporters fed up with the status quo and inclined to "experiment" with something new.

I'm sort of flabbergasted (first time I've used this word. But it aptly describes how I feel). I don't think I overstate: If Sunday's vote reaches the "yuuge" historic levels as predicted, then global political trends will have stepped onto an entirely new (perhaps more dangerous) plane of thought and existence.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Sun, October 28, 2018 02:19:14 AM UTC0:00
Hey E Pluribus Unum,

With respect to the Ciro Gomes endorsement, the AP says that he endorsed Haddad but I'm reading Brazilian sources that say he is withholding his support. [Link]

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Sun, October 28, 2018 04:54:04 PM UTC0:00
Well I put it there because I read sources that he did endorse Haddad, plus ideologically it makes sense, Gomes being a Social Democrat and Haddad being a Democratic Socialist. It really could be either one

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Sun, October 28, 2018 05:26:43 PM UTC0:00
Brazilian politics can get so wacky, who knows?

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Sun, October 28, 2018 08:13:53 PM UTC0:00
I actually did the math, even though Haddad has more parties backing him in the second round, the parties that
are likely to vote Bolsonaro in round 2 attracted more voters. So I predict Bolsonaro winning. Hopefully Haddad can prove me wrong

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Mon, October 29, 2018 03:47:28 PM UTC0:00
Whether Bolsonaro is pro-US or not has no relevance unless we're going to view every global event from a US-centric perspective. One should instead look at the unique dynamic of this phenomenon - let's shed away our personal biases and appraise this objectively for the moment.

* A nobody from nowhere sets up a party of one, says a few sharp words that pierce the right buttons, and presto, nada to 52 seats, 2nd-place in Brazil's lower house [Link]

* In galactic double-time, this bagatelle-turned-celebrity, guided by luck and providence (knife in the gulliver; Lula in the hole) slays the equivalent of a Minatour, that foul, forbidding Brazilian Establishment Blob every Brazilian loves to hate. He then literally "climbs onto the shoulders" of the Brazilian people to seize the Palácio da Alvorada, to popular cheer, bouquets and fireworks (the Bolsonaro mythos begins).

Like it or not, the Bolsonaro regime will only see rainbows over the horizon from now on:

* The economy can only go up, way up, in fact, after the worst recession in Brazil's history. Chicago-boy inspiration, international plaudits to the strongman await (remind you of something?).

* 175 murders a day? [Link] - the crime rate dramatically drops, replaced by 175 (quiet) Rodrigo Duterte-style executions a day - 1970's death squads the norm, with hardly a dent on personal appeal (let's not forget that Duterte's still the single-most popular leader the Philippines has ever had).

* The end of the Worker's Party. Bad memories will not recede, not in our lifetimes (and I intend to live 200 years).

* A new movement cemented. The 'populist right' can only build on it sway from here.

Welcome to the party, pal.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
x2
Mon, October 29, 2018 04:16:47 PM UTC0:00
Bojicat: Bolsonaro will be makin' Brazil GREAT AGAIN.

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
x3
Wed, October 31, 2018 07:40:29 PM UTC0:00
okay, the new display for the primary vote totals by parties is a lot better here