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  KY Governor
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Kentucky > Governor
OfficeGovernor
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 29, 2019 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 05, 2019 - 05:00am Central
Polls Close November 05, 2019 - 05:00pm Central
Term Start December 09, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End December 12, 2023 - 12:00pm
Turnout 41.81% Registered 33.26% Total Population
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedRBH December 06, 2019 03:32pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/03/2015
NameMatt Bevin Votes511,374 (52.52%)
Term12/08/2015 - 12/09/2019 Margin84,754 (+8.70%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
May 21, 2019 KY Governor - R Primary
Matt Bevin
R 259,866
May 21, 2019 KY Governor - D Primary
Andy Beshear
D 394,513
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
08/19/2018 11/05/2019
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Matt Bevin 6 3 2 1
Andy Beshear 13 1 ----
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Matt Bevin (57.89%)
Weighted Call: Andy Beshear (62.71%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

12/12/2018 11/01/2019

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Attorney General Andy Beshear (I) Gov. Matt Bevin John Hicks (W) Blackii Effing Whyte  
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Independent  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes709,890 (49.19%) 704,754 (48.84%) 28,433 (1.97%) 46 (0.00%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -5,136 (-0.36%) -681,457 (-47.22%) -709,844 (-49.19%)  
Predict Avg.48.67% 50.00% 2.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $--  
Website [Campaign Site] [Campaign Site] [Website]  
Entry Date 07/09/2018 01/25/2019 00/00/2019 01/29/2019  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (7 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg48.86%-- 44.64%-- 2.38%-- 0.00%--  
Trafalgar Group 
10/29/19-11/01/19
47.00% -- 52.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Targoz Market Research 
10/13/19-10/20/19
55.00% -- 36.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% --
Mason-Dixon 
10/10/19-10/13/19
46.00% 2.0 46.00% 6.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) 
08/19/19-08/22/19
48.00% -- 39.00% -- 6.00% -- 0.00% --
Clarity Campaign Labs 
08/12/19-08/13/19
48.00% -- 39.00% -- 5.00% -- 0.00% --
Gravis Marketing 
06/11/19-06/12/19
42.00% -- 48.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Amy Husk (SWP)
 00, 2019 -  00, 2019

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/30/2019 Andy Beshear TVAd Feel Good eng Andy Beshear for Kentucky Governor  00:00:30 RP 
10/28/2019 Andy Beshear vs Matt Bevin TVAd Biography eng Respect  00:00:30 RP 
10/24/2019 John Hicks TVAd Biography eng John Hicks the unknown third running for Kentucky governor  00:02:06 data 
10/17/2019 Andy Beshear vs Matt Bevin TVAd Attack eng Cares  00:00:30 RP 
10/14/2019 Andy Beshear vs Matt Bevin TVAd Endorsement eng Rocky  00:00:30 RP 
10/10/2019 Andy Beshear vs Matt Bevin TVAd Endorsement eng Done  00:00:30 RP 
10/07/2019 Andy Beshear vs Matt Bevin TVAd Attack eng Laura  00:00:30 RP 
09/23/2019 vs Matt Bevin TVAd Attack eng Bones  00:00:30 RP 
09/17/2019 Matt Bevin vs Andy Beshear TVAd Contrast eng Life  00:00:30 RP 
09/16/2019 Matt Bevin vs Andy Beshear TVAd Attack eng Safe  00:00:30 RP 
09/06/2019 Matt Bevin TVAd Biography eng Family  00:00:30 RP 
09/06/2019 vs Andy Beshear TVAd Attack eng Takeover  00:00:30 RP 
09/05/2019 Andy Beshear TVAd Issue eng Lights Out  00:00:30 RP 
09/04/2019 Matt Bevin TVAd Feel Good eng Forward  00:00:30 RP 
08/05/2019 Andy Beshear TVAd Biography eng Dignity  00:00:30 RP 
07/22/2019 John Hicks TVAd Issue eng Hicks 4 Libertarian Choices  00:00:52 data 
07/22/2019 John Hicks TVAd Issue eng The Themes of Our Campaign  00:02:10 data 
07/05/2019 John Hicks TVAd Biography eng John Hicks, Libertarian Candidate for Governor of Kentucky, answers the burning question, "Why me?"  00:03:01 data 
06/30/2019 John Hicks TVAd Biography eng John Hicks candidate for Governor of Kentucky   00:02:10 data 
05/21/2019 vs Andy Beshear TVAd Attack eng Family Business  00:00:30 RP 
05/06/2019 vs Andy Beshear TVAd Attack eng Told You  00:00:30 RP 
05/02/2019 Matt Bevin TVAd Biography eng We are Just Getting Started  00:01:00 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 25, 2019 12:00pm Proposed Legislation Bill would strip Kentucky governor’s power to name state Transportation Secretary   Article RP 
Nov 21, 2019 03:05pm Profile Covington Woman Explains Why She Told GOP Crowd Bevin Won  Article RP 
Nov 08, 2019 02:50pm News Matt Bevin’s Libertarian opponent says the Kentucky election just proved his point  Article ev0lv 

DISCUSSION
[View All
38
Previous Messages]
 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
x3
Fri, September 27, 2019 12:25:40 AM UTC0:00
John Bel Edwards has a much better chance of winning because of incumbency and because Louisiana has a sizable African-American electorate.

 
I:10200Jeaux ( 85.0405 points)
Sat, September 28, 2019 02:14:33 PM UTC0:00
John Bel is also quite popular in Louisiana and is tying his opponents to the unpopular tenure of Jindal...I'd say JBE is in a pretty good spot (especially when you add in what Labour Dem pointed out)

 
I:9775Natalie ( 155.0022 points)
Mon, September 30, 2019 04:27:47 AM UTC0:00
Beshear has this one in the bag. I'm usually way too optimistic though.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4353.9746 points)
Sat, October 26, 2019 08:26:15 PM UTC0:00
Targoz Market Research is hoping to be more reliable than Torgoz Market Research ("We poll the place while the Master is away")

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 5, 2019 12:00:57 AM UTC0:00
Trump Campaign Rally for Bevin in Lexington tonight:

[Link]


 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, November 5, 2019 11:37:08 PM UTC0:00
PBS is showing the results here:

[Link]

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 01:40:16 AM UTC0:00
Beshear's performance in the Cincinnati suburbs is very impressive. Part national suburban trend, part Beshear being a good candidate, part Bevin being a uniquely terrible candidate.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 02:09:43 AM UTC0:00
The % change map is interesting.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4353.9746 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 02:45:47 AM UTC0:00
why yes, Bell/Harlan/McCreary counties are in different TV markets than their neighbors. [Link]

Not sure what happened in Nicholas County, in a few senses

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 03:01:26 AM UTC0:00
Hm. Maybe I should have a media market overlay option for the maps.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 03:00:56 PM UTC0:00

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 03:31:46 PM UTC0:00
Correct me if I am wrong, but pending the outcome in Louisiana, Republicans have yet to flip a governorship from D to R under the Trump presidency?

 
D:6086Jason (10040.0127 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 04:25:10 PM UTC0:00
Not a terribly impressive night for the Dems in Kentucky, considering they got pulverized in the other statewide races and Beshear barely won here despite Bevin's unpopularity.

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 1352.2366 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 05:44:33 PM UTC0:00
Jason: Not a terribly impressive night for the Dems in Kentucky, considering they got pulverized in the other statewide races and Beshear barely won here despite Bevin's unpopularity.

Typical Dem, taking a win and turning it into an L

How long before the legislature strips the governor of his powers ala Michigan and NC?

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 08:26:42 PM UTC0:00
PA Indy: How long before the legislature strips the governor of his powers ala Michigan and NC?

Well, first we have to see if the legislature overturns this election result. Bevin hasn't conceded and apparently there's an old law on the books that lets the legislature decide who wins if there is a "disputed election".

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, November 6, 2019 08:54:17 PM UTC0:00
"We are always happy to split the vote in a way that causes delicious tears. Tonight there are plenty of delicious tears from Bevin supporters," the [Libertarian] party said in a Facebook post. [Link]

 
D:10409Tar Heel Conservative Dem ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, November 7, 2019 12:04:56 AM UTC0:00
Who will the KY GOP push to be the standard bearer for 2023 against Beshear ?

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
x3
Thu, November 7, 2019 12:17:23 AM UTC0:00
Tar Heel Conservative Dem: Who will the KY GOP push to be the standard bearer for 2023 against Beshear ?

AG Daniel Cameron will be on almost any speculative list for Gov or any other statewide race.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Thu, November 7, 2019 01:25:19 AM UTC0:00
James Comer could make another run.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 377.6979 points)
x3
Fri, November 8, 2019 12:04:32 AM UTC0:00
Obviously, the national media will try to maximize the anti-Trump spin here, but if almost any other person had been the nominee of either party, the Democrats would not have prevailed. Trump carried Kentucky by 30 points, and will likely do similarly next year.

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 189.9475 points)
Fri, November 8, 2019 12:26:19 AM UTC0:00
Old Dominion Democrat: Correct me if I am wrong, but pending the outcome in Louisiana, Republicans have yet to flip a governorship from D to R under the Trump presidency?

West Virginia on a technicality. Alaska on a different technicality.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4353.9746 points)
Sat, November 9, 2019 03:46:49 AM UTC0:00
I think Montana will technically answer that "flipped under Trump" question if JBE wins next week (unless there's a bunch of technicalities about flips on the day of a Pres election)

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Thu, November 14, 2019 07:37:32 PM UTC0:00
Bevin has conceded - [Link]

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, November 19, 2019 02:30:36 AM UTC0:00
I have finished hand-entering all the counties that are reporting precinct data.

And I have no idea what's going on with Owensboro.