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  UT District 04
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Utah > UT - District 04
OfficeHouse of Representatives
Type General Election
Filing Deadline May 01, 2018 - 06:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 09:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedKyle November 14, 2018 06:15pm
Data Sources[Link]

[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameMia Love Votes147,957 (53.82%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2019 Margin34,544 (+12.56%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Apr 21, 2018 UT District 04 - R Convention Mia Love
R 1
Apr 28, 2018 UT District 04 - D Convention Benjamin M. McAdams
D 100
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
10/19/2017 11/06/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Mia Love 8 5 ----
Benjamin M. McAdams 6 1 ----
Tossup 2 ------
Leaning Call: Mia Love (64.29%)
Weighted Call: Mia Love (47.04%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

10/09/2017 10/26/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name County Mayor Benjamin M. McAdams (I) Rep. Mia Love (W) Jonathan Peterson  
PartyDemocratic Republican Independent  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes (90.07% in)121,519 (50.18%) 120,646 (49.82%) 0 (0.00%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -873 (-0.36%) -121,519 (-50.18%)  
Estimated Final134,060 (49.68%) 135,784 (50.32%) 0 (0.00%)  
Predict Avg.48.67% 51.33% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 4/8 $863,946.94 10/17 $323,274.56 $--  
Website [Website]  
Entry Date 10/19/2017 00/00/2017 05/01/2018  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (12 from 6 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg47.04%-- 44.54%-- 0.00%--  
Siena Research Institute 
10/24/18-10/26/18
45.00% -- 45.00% -- 0.00% --
Dixie Strategies 
10/25/18-10/25/18
49.50% -- 43.00% -- 0.00% --
Hinckley Institute of Politics 
10/03/18-10/11/18
46.00% -- 46.00% -- 0.00% --
Mellman Group (D) 
10/07/18-10/10/18
47.00% 3.0 46.00% -- 0.00% --
Dan Jones & Associates 
08/22/18-09/06/18
46.00% -- 49.00% -- 0.00% --
Mellman Group (D) 
08/20/18-08/23/18
44.00% 4.0 46.00% 3.0 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/22/2018 Mia Love TVAd Biography eng Vote For Mia Love  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/17/2018 vs Benjamin M. McAdams TVAd Attack eng Stinks  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/15/2018 Mia Love vs Benjamin M. McAdams TVAd Attack eng Bigger Government  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/26/2018 vs Benjamin M. McAdams TVAd Attack eng Big Spendin McAdams  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/26/2018 vs Benjamin M. McAdams TVAd Attack eng McAdams & the Clintons- Best Friends  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
08/21/2018 Benjamin M. McAdams TVAd Biography eng Kids  00:00:30 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 10, 2018 05:00am Oops Rep. Mia Love's campaign admits to improperly raising primary election funds  Article RP 

DISCUSSION
[View All
14
Previous Messages]
 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 195.5159 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 11:41:40 PM UTC0:00
Margin down to 1357 with 85% counted.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 432.2575 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 11:46:50 PM UTC0:00
Most of Utah County has been counted. This will come down to Salt Lake County; Love has done very well there over the last couple days of counting and if she continues the trend, she would win by a few hundred votes. But, based on the greater picture, McAdams is still the favorite.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 195.5159 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 11:54:30 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: Most of Utah County has been counted. This will come down to Salt Lake County; Love has done very well there over the last couple days of counting and if she continues the trend, she would win by a few hundred votes. But, based on the greater picture, McAdams is still the favorite.

Any idea how much is left in Salt Lake County and Utah County?

Not much on the state website about outstanding precincts. [Link]

 
I:7114Kyle ( 432.2575 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 11:58:01 PM UTC0:00
@BrentinCO: Robert Gehrke of the Salt Lake Tribune is a must follow on Twitter and elsewhere for his stuff on this race.

He currently projects there are about 34k votes left in Salt Lake County in this race and a little over 5k left in Utah County to count.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 11.2748 points)
Wed, November 14, 2018 12:24:50 AM UTC0:00
Brentin: Any chance Love wins by a miracle ?

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 195.5159 points)
Wed, November 14, 2018 12:49:25 AM UTC0:00
BLUEDOGS: Brentin: Any chance Love wins by a miracle ?

A chance, but probably not likely.

Here’s the analysis from Kyles reccomended follower Robert Gehrke. Both scenarios point to a McAdams victory.



Looks like this is one more set to add to the Dems column. I think alll we are waiting for now is ME-2.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 432.2575 points)
Wed, November 14, 2018 12:58:05 AM UTC0:00
Brent, in his second projection based off today's Salt Lake County vote, Love would win by 226 votes. But, that is if she gets 48-49% of the remaining vote in a county where she has gotten 45-46%.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2952.3037 points)
Wed, November 14, 2018 01:00:09 AM UTC0:00
BrentinCO: I think all we are waiting for now is ME-2.

I expect CA-39 and CA-45 to flip Democratic as more of the vote comes in.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 195.5159 points)
Wed, November 14, 2018 01:24:49 AM UTC0:00
CA Pol Junkie: I expect CA-39 and CA-45 to flip Democratic as more of the vote comes in.

Forgot about those two, although I’ve already sorta written off Mimi Walters in CA-45. A Young Kim loss would hurt though. Seems like the future leadership of Republicans in California has been totally decapitated in this election.

NJ-3 is still technically out too, but looks to have swung to the Democrat.

 
D:1RP ( 3598.5261 points)
Wed, November 14, 2018 11:05:59 PM UTC0:00
Losing in Utah’s 4th District, Rep. Mia Love sues Salt Lake County to suspend vote counting until she has the chance to challenge ballots - [Link]

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 11.2748 points)
Wed, November 14, 2018 11:12:04 PM UTC0:00
How long before Love pulls a Rick Scott on voter fraud ?

 
I:7114Kyle ( 432.2575 points)
Wed, November 14, 2018 11:39:31 PM UTC0:00
BLUEDOGS: How long before Love pulls a Rick Scott on voter fraud ?

Mia graciously lost by 700 votes in 2012. Here in Utah, we pride ourselves in integrity and decency. She will accept the result either way

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 195.5159 points)
Thu, November 15, 2018 12:06:45 AM UTC0:00
Even if this ends in a loss for Love, I’m pretty sure this isn’t the last we’ve heard of her in politics and in Utah.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 432.2575 points)
Thu, November 15, 2018 12:12:48 AM UTC0:00
New numbers out of Salt Lake County go over 50% for Love. She is poised to go ahead for the first time when Utah County updates next.

That is three straight days of her doing significantly better in Salt Lake County. Not an anomaly anymore. Pure tossup right now.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 432.2575 points)
Thu, November 15, 2018 12:20:56 AM UTC0:00
FWIW: Silver had this as Likely DEM on Monday, Leans DEM yesterday, and now tossup.

Wasserman says Love is the favorite.

Waiting for Gehrke's updated prediction.

 
D:1989RBH ( 2556.0742 points)
Thu, November 15, 2018 06:21:42 AM UTC0:00
the rare place where the votes reported after election day break more Republican than the votes counted through election day