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  NY District 27
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > New York > NY - District 27
OfficeHouse of Representatives
Type General Election
Filing Deadline April 12, 2018 - 04:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 05:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End October 01, 2019 - 12:00pm
Turnout 64.83% Registered 43.60% Total Population
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRP September 30, 2019 01:09pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Collins suspended his active campaign in August but was unable to be removed from the ballot.

Term End due to resignation before pleading guilty to insider trading. - [Link]
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameChris Collins Votes220,885 (67.18%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2019 Margin113,053 (+34.38%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won06/23/2020
NameChristopher L. Jacobs Votes81,085 (51.09%)
Term06/24/2020 - 01/03/2021 Margin8,087 (+5.10%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Sep 17, 2018 NY District 27 - R Replacement
Chris Collins
R 1
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
08/08/2018 11/06/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Chris Collins 7 6 --1
Nathan D. McMurray 3 ------
Leaning Call: Chris Collins (88.46%)
Weighted Call: Chris Collins (83.50%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

10/06/2018 10/30/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Rep. Chris Collins Supervisor Nathan D. McMurray Larry Piegza (W) Write-In  
PartyRepublican Democratic Reform Unknown  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes140,146 (49.12%) 139,059 (48.74%) 5,973 (2.09%) 122 (0.04%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -1,087 (-0.38%) -134,173 (-47.03%) -140,024 (-49.08%)  
Fusion Votes
Republican114,506
Conservative23,553
IDP Independence2,087
Democratic128,167
WFP Working Families8,090
WEP Women's Equality2,802
 
Predict Avg.48.67% 41.33% 10.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand 6/30 $1,341,644.62 10/17 $428,690.12 10/17 $227,051.88 $--  
Website [Website] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date 08/12/2018 00/00/2017 00/00/2017 04/12/2018  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (5 from 3 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg42.40%-- 41.46%-- 1.84%-- 0.00%--  
Dixie Strategies 
10/29/18-10/30/18
45.00% -- 38.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/24/18-10/29/18
44.00% 2.0 40.00% 3.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Tulchin Research 
10/25/18-10/28/18
43.00% -- 47.00% -- 4.00% -- 0.00% --
Siena Research Institute 
10/06/18-10/11/18
46.00% -- 43.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% --
Tulchin Research 
10/06/18-10/08/18
42.00% -- 42.00% -- 6.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/25/2018 Nathan D. McMurray TVAd Biography eng This Time  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/23/2018 Nathan D. McMurray TVAd Feel Good eng We're in Range  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/23/2018 Nathan D. McMurray TVAd Biography eng Who We Are  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 vs Chris Collins Web Only Ad Attack eng McMurray In, Collins Out  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/14/2018 Nathan D. McMurray TVAd Biography eng America  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/11/2018 vs Nathan D. McMurray TVAd Attack eng Impeachment  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/06/2018 vs Nathan D. McMurray TVAd Attack eng Single Payer  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/28/2018 Nathan D. McMurray TVAd Biography eng Vote for Common Sense  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/25/2018 vs Chris Collins TVAd Attack eng Collins Has Failed - We Need Jobs  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/22/2018 vs Nathan D. McMurray TVAd Attack eng Take Him At His Word  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/18/2018 vs Chris Collins TVAd Attack eng He Lied  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
08/09/2018 Larry Piegza Web Only Ad Biography eng About My Campaign, Fixit Larry Piegza  00:06:16 BrentinCO 
08/02/2018 Larry Piegza Candidacy Announcement Biography eng Fix It Larry Piegza  00:05:00 Poll Vaulter 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Sep 30, 2019 01:00pm Announcement Rep. Chris Collins announces resignation, according to aide  Article RP 
Nov 11, 2018 12:00pm General Inside the McMurray campaign: charisma and chaos  Article IndyGeorgia 
Oct 31, 2018 10:00am News Chris Collins' indictment divides voters – and defines Nate McMurray's race  Article Poll Vaulter 
Oct 01, 2018 07:00am News Nathan McMurray walks a fine line on guns as he campaigns for 27th District  Article Poll Vaulter 
Aug 14, 2018 11:00am News POLL: IN NY-27, COLLINS’S SEAT LIKELY TO REMAIN REPUBLICAN  Article Poll Vaulter 

DISCUSSION
[View All
40
Previous Messages]
 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
Mon, August 13, 2018 10:29:55 PM UTC0:00
Carl Paladino declared that he is running but it doesn't appear that the Republican Party has selected him or anyone else as their replacement. He shouldn't be here yet.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
Tue, August 14, 2018 11:46:03 PM UTC0:00
Labour Dem: Carl Paladino declared that he is running but it doesn't appear that the Republican Party has selected him or anyone else as their replacement. He shouldn't be here yet.
If its up to Republican committee people, I doubt Paladino has much of a chance.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Sun, September 16, 2018 10:09:08 PM UTC0:00
Since Collins is still on the ballot, shouldn't he remain listed here?

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Mon, September 17, 2018 12:53:35 AM UTC0:00
Is it finalized or still in limbo?

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Mon, September 17, 2018 01:18:39 AM UTC0:00
Collins is still on the ballot: [Link]

Rumblings that Republicans are still trying to figure out how to kick Collins off the ballot and are currently looking at getting Collins a spot on the Clarence Town Board by having a current member resign: [Link]

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Mon, September 17, 2018 12:46:45 PM UTC0:00
Don't add, use replace so the predictions aren't screwed up.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Mon, September 17, 2018 10:13:33 PM UTC0:00
If Collins wins the election, is there then an automatic special election?

 
D:6086Jason (10040.0127 points)
Mon, September 17, 2018 11:28:23 PM UTC0:00
No? He would win re-election, and therefore hold office for 2 more years.

I guess he could resign, but why?

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Mon, September 17, 2018 11:45:31 PM UTC0:00
If he's convicted of insider trading I believe it is likely he will be expelled.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, September 19, 2018 09:29:59 PM UTC0:00
Voters can be assured that with the recent turn of events, they can count on me to actively campaign for Congress, and to serve should voters re-elect me. The stakes are too high to allow the radical left to take control of this seat in Congress - Chris Collins - [Link]

 
D:9362An62190 ( 440.0080 points)
Thu, October 11, 2018 12:37:23 AM UTC0:00
Chris Collins doesnt show up in names of Republican candidates when I tried to add the McMurray poll

 
I:9518Charlotte Rose ( 268.6999 points)
Thu, October 11, 2018 02:11:35 AM UTC0:00
Fixed

 
D:1989RBH ( 4353.9746 points)
Thu, October 11, 2018 02:20:05 AM UTC0:00
It seems like having Collins as the 'winner' of the replacement race might be less confusing than having 'No Candidate' as the winner. Somehow.

 
I:10010Poll Vaulter ( 338.7543 points)
Tue, October 16, 2018 12:57:40 PM UTC0:00
If that new Siena poll is accurate.. its the weirdest poll of all time... According to the poll, the indicted Collins is winning 19% of Democrats... He's also doing better with women than he is with men... and he's doing better with those <50 years old, than he is with thosee >50..... I find any of those three facts to be improbable on its on... the chance of all three happening?? Its has to be really small

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4306.3022 points)
x2
Tue, October 16, 2018 04:17:14 PM UTC0:00
This cycle has really demonstrated to me how horrible polling is these days, which I assume is a by-product of the pitiful response rate. The hope is that the average of horrible polls is about right, but when you add in the big uncertainty regarding who is going to vote what's left is about 1 step above useless.

 
I:10010Poll Vaulter ( 338.7543 points)
Tue, October 16, 2018 06:25:37 PM UTC0:00
Yeah, there is absolutely no way Collins is getting one out of five democrats in this district... I mean even if he was well liked (which the poll shows he is not), he's not getting 20% of the Democrats in the district.. the Democrats in this district are REALLY BLUE... they have to be, or they would be GOP... you have to be really committed because by being a democrat you lock yourself out of all of the local GOP primaries, which dominate all of the local politics in this region.

 
D:1989RBH ( 4353.9746 points)
Wed, October 17, 2018 12:07:29 AM UTC0:00
don't worry, the Collins Ds that may not exist will be replaced by Collins Rs that may not have been polled at the 'accurate' percent of the sample

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Thu, October 18, 2018 01:18:45 AM UTC0:00
Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) received a total of $80 in contributions from donors within his district after he was indicted in August on insider trading charges.

Documents filed with the Federal Election Commission show that Collins reported close to $33,000 in campaign contributions in the third quarter of 2018, down more than $70,000 from the previous quarter.

Of his third quarter haul, most came from political action committees. After he was charged on Aug. 8, just three people from New York's 27th Congressional District contributed to his campaign for a total of $80.
[Link]

 
I:10010Poll Vaulter ( 338.7543 points)
Tue, October 23, 2018 01:01:36 PM UTC0:00
I normally vote GOP, but I cannot support Collins. The charges against him are credible. I hate Wall Street cheaters. Voting McMurray

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4306.3022 points)
Tue, October 23, 2018 03:19:17 PM UTC0:00
Poll Vaulter: I normally vote GOP, but I cannot support Collins. The charges against him are credible. I hate Wall Street cheaters. Voting McMurray

You will most likely get a better Republican than Collins in two years so you will have a Republican representing you in the end and the country will be better off if corruption isn't tolerated.

 
I:10010Poll Vaulter ( 338.7543 points)
Wed, October 24, 2018 01:59:48 AM UTC0:00
I agree.. I've said that many times.. don't be afraid to give someone a chance.. if you don't like them, vote them out in 2 years.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Sun, October 28, 2018 07:36:45 PM UTC0:00
Between 10/1 and 10/17, Collins raised $1,754. [Link]

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 122.3838 points)
Mon, October 29, 2018 11:15:50 PM UTC0:00
Even though Collins is ya know, like, still on thuh ballot, who will thuh NY St GOP get to replace that dude in thuh special election ?

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 02:27:03 AM UTC0:00
Chris Collins just won a nice bargaining chip on Tuesday.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, November 21, 2018 03:44:25 PM UTC0:00