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  NY District 27
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > New York > NY - District 27
OfficeHouse of Representatives
Type General Election
Filing Deadline April 12, 2018 - 04:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 05:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2021 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedRBH September 17, 2018 12:18pm
Data Sources
Description Collins suspended his active campaign in August but was unable to be removed from the ballot.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/08/2016
NameChris Collins Votes220,885 (67.18%)
Term01/03/2017 - 01/03/2019 Margin113,053 (+34.38%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Sep 17, 2018 NY District 27 - R Replacement Chris Collins R 1
NY CDs 2013-2023 MAP
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
08/08/2018 10/19/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Chris Collins 4 4 3 1
Nate McMurray 3 ------
Leaning Call: Chris Collins (89.29%)
Weighted Call: Chris Collins (73.36%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

10/06/2018 10/11/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Rep. Chris Collins Nate McMurray Larry Piegza  
PartyRepublican Democratic Reform  
Campaign Logo  
Ballot Lines
Republican
Conservative
IDP Independence
Democratic
WFP Working Families
WEP Women's Equality
 
Predict Avg.48.67% 41.33% 10.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- 6/30 $81,772.07 9/30 $229,106.33
Donate
 
Website [Website] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date 08/12/2018 00/00/2017 00/00/2017  
MATCHUP POLLS (2 from 2 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg44.13%-- 42.61%-- -7.24%--  
New!Siena Research Institute 
10/06/18-10/11/18
46.00% -- 43.00% -- 1.00% --
Tulchin Research 
10/06/18-10/08/18
42.00% -- 42.00% -- 6.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/18/2018 vs Chris Collins Web Only Ad Attack eng New! McMurray In, Collins Out  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/14/2018 Nate McMurray TVAd Biography eng America  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/11/2018 vs Nate McMurray TVAd Attack eng Impeachment  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/06/2018 vs Nate McMurray TVAd Attack eng Single Payer  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/25/2018 vs Chris Collins TVAd Attack eng Collins Has Failed - We Need Jobs  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/22/2018 vs Nate McMurray TVAd Attack eng Take Him At His Word  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/18/2018 vs Chris Collins TVAd Attack eng He Lied  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
08/09/2018 Larry Piegza Web Only Ad Biography eng About My Campaign, Fixit Larry Piegza  00:06:16 BrentinCO 
08/02/2018 Larry Piegza Candidacy Announcement Biography eng Fix It Larry Piegza  00:05:00 Poll Vaulter 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 01, 2018 07:00am News Nathan McMurray walks a fine line on guns as he campaigns for 27th District  Article Poll Vaulter 
Aug 14, 2018 11:00am News POLL: IN NY-27, COLLINS’S SEAT LIKELY TO REMAIN REPUBLICAN  Article Poll Vaulter 

DISCUSSION
[View All
4
Previous Messages]
 
I:10010Poll Vaulter ( 75.2824 points)
Tue, October 16, 2018 12:57:40 PM UTC0:00
If that new Siena poll is accurate.. its the weirdest poll of all time... According to the poll, the indicted Collins is winning 19% of Democrats... He's also doing better with women than he is with men... and he's doing better with those <50 years old, than he is with thosee >50..... I find any of those three facts to be improbable on its on... the chance of all three happening?? Its has to be really small

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2950.5901 points)
x2
Tue, October 16, 2018 04:17:14 PM UTC0:00
This cycle has really demonstrated to me how horrible polling is these days, which I assume is a by-product of the pitiful response rate. The hope is that the average of horrible polls is about right, but when you add in the big uncertainty regarding who is going to vote what's left is about 1 step above useless.

 
I:10010Poll Vaulter ( 75.2824 points)
Tue, October 16, 2018 06:25:37 PM UTC0:00
Yeah, there is absolutely no way Collins is getting one out of five democrats in this district... I mean even if he was well liked (which the poll shows he is not), he's not getting 20% of the Democrats in the district.. the Democrats in this district are REALLY BLUE... they have to be, or they would be GOP... you have to be really committed because by being a democrat you lock yourself out of all of the local GOP primaries, which dominate all of the local politics in this region.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 124.2026 points)
Tue, October 16, 2018 10:37:29 PM UTC0:00
CA Pol Junkie: This cycle has really demonstrated to me how horrible polling is these days, which I assume is a by-product of the pitiful response rate. The hope is that the average of horrible polls is about right, but when you add in the big uncertainty regarding who is going to vote what's left is about 1 step above useless.

Totally agree. I’m not sure either party has much confidence in what the polls are showing now even when it shows there side up. In the past a turn-out model could be relatively accurate. I don’t think either party or any of the polling companies have a high degree of confidence in their turn-out models.

 
D:1989RBH ( 2555.7664 points)
Wed, October 17, 2018 12:07:29 AM UTC0:00
don't worry, the Collins Ds that may not exist will be replaced by Collins Rs that may not have been polled at the 'accurate' percent of the sample

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 1647.0699 points)
Thu, October 18, 2018 01:18:45 AM UTC0:00
Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) received a total of $80 in contributions from donors within his district after he was indicted in August on insider trading charges.

Documents filed with the Federal Election Commission show that Collins reported close to $33,000 in campaign contributions in the third quarter of 2018, down more than $70,000 from the previous quarter.

Of his third quarter haul, most came from political action committees. After he was charged on Aug. 8, just three people from New York's 27th Congressional District contributed to his campaign for a total of $80.
[Link]