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  AZ US Senate - R Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2018 - 06:00pm Central
Polls Open August 28, 2018 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close August 28, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedCharlotte Rose April 30, 2019 05:15pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameJeff Flake Votes1,104,457 (49.23%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin67,915 (+3.03%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2018
NameKyrsten Sinema Votes1,191,100 (49.96%)
Term01/03/2019 - 12/09/2022 Margin55,900 (+2.34%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceAZ US Senate 11/06/2018
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
05/12/2017 08/28/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Martha McSally 4 8 --1
Joseph M. "Joe" Arpaio 1 ------
Leaning Call: Martha McSally (96.00%)
Weighted Call: Martha McSally (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

10/26/2017 08/22/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Rep. Martha McSally St. Sen. Kelli Ward County Sheriff Joseph M. "Joe" Arpaio (W) Nicholas Glenn (W) William Gonzales  
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 357,626 (54.58%) 180,926 (27.61%) 116,555 (17.79%) 121 (0.02%) 70 (0.01%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -176,700 (-26.96%) -241,071 (-36.79%) -357,505 (-54.56%) -357,556 (-54.56%)  
Predict Avg.48.00% 28.25% 21.25% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- 8/8 $256,784.64 $-- $-- $--  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 01/12/2018 10/27/2016 01/09/2018 06/01/2018 06/01/2018  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (16 from 9 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg46.63%-- 24.43%-- 15.82%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Data Orbital 
08/21/18-08/22/18
48.10% 17.1 22.10% 3.1 17.60% 4.4 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
08/14/18-08/15/18
47.00% 12.0 27.00% -- 13.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
07/23/18-07/25/18
35.00% 4.0 27.00% 2.5 15.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Gravis Marketing 
06/27/18-07/02/18
34.60% -- 24.80% -- 20.60% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
06/21/18-06/22/18
32.30% -- 19.40% -- 18.20% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
06/17/18-06/21/18
30.00% -- 28.00% -- 21.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
D Jason
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Jay Heiler (R)
Jan 12, 2018
Craig Brittain (R)
 00, 2018
Christian Diegel (R)
 00, 2018
Michelle Griffin (R)
 00, 2018
Matthew J. "Matt" Salmon (R)
 00, 2018
Nicholas Tutora (R)
 00, 2018
Jeff DeWit (R)
Nov 30, 2017
John Shadegg (R)
Nov 07, 2017
Trent Franks (R)
Oct 26, 2017
Paul Gosar (R)
Oct 25, 2017
David Schweikert (R)
Oct 25, 2017
Jeff Flake (R)
Jan 01, 2017 - Oct 24, 2017

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
08/22/2017 vs Kelli Ward TVAd Attack eng ChemtrailKelli  00:01:17 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 24, 2017 03:15pm Speculative Joe Arpaio still considering Arizona Senate run, says he met Steve Bannon twice  Article RP 

DISCUSSION
[View All
25
Previous Messages]
 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Tue, January 9, 2018 09:30:21 PM UTC0:00
Reminds me of a famous Monty Python sketch [Link] The candidates for Luton are, for the Sensible Party, Alan Jones; for the Slightly Silly Party, Kevin Phillips-Bong; and for the Silly Party, Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F'tang-F'tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel.

 
D:9583Caprice ( 91.5054 points)
Wed, January 10, 2018 01:19:19 AM UTC0:00
Don't forget the spoiler candidate, Malcolm Peter Brian Telescope Adrian Umbrella Stand Jasper Wednesday (pops mouth twice) Stoatgobbler John Raw Vegetable (whinnying) Arthur Norman Michael (blows squeaker) Featherstone Smith (whistle) Northcott Edwards Harris (fires pistol, then 'whoop') Mason (chuff-chuff-chuff-chuff) Frampton Jones Fruitbat Gilbert (sings) 'We'll keep a welcome in the' (three shots) Williams If I Could Walk That Way Jenkin (squeaker) Tiger-drawers Pratt Thompson (sings) 'Raindrops Keep Falling On My Head' Darcy Carter (horn) Pussycat (sings) 'Don't Sleep In The Subway' Barton Mainwaring (hoot, 'whoop') Smith. :P

 
I:9767BusyBusbee ( 308.6044 points)
Wed, January 10, 2018 02:26:54 PM UTC0:00
I would be freaking surprised if Arpaio somehow squeezed in by little winning margin in the primaries thanks to the splitted vote. I wonder how he would do against presumptive Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema...

 
I:9767BusyBusbee ( 308.6044 points)
Wed, January 10, 2018 02:33:52 PM UTC0:00
Synema will probably win her primaries decisively with minor opposition and have more time to focus on general and save up some cash, obviously while GOP will have three serious candidates, and all of these three contenders will probably have to focus both of their financial resources and time on primaries before going into the general election, any parties competitive primaries for any office won't certainly help anyone who wins this thing (primaries I mean).

 
I:9767BusyBusbee ( 308.6044 points)
Wed, January 10, 2018 02:36:56 PM UTC0:00
Oops got her last name wrong.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Wed, April 18, 2018 10:53:04 PM UTC0:00
Duelling polls. OHPI says they will release the general election results late tonight.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Thu, July 19, 2018 03:20:20 AM UTC0:00
From Mr. Gosar's endorsement:

Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar has endorsed Kelli Ward over fellow Arizona Rep. Martha McSally ahead of the state’s Republican primary next month.

Gosar criticized McSally in his announcement, saying “we cannot afford another establishment patsy who promises one thing and votes differently,” AZCentral reported.

Gosar said while he liked McSally personally, he found her to be “inconsistent politically.”

“None of us can count on Martha keeping a campaign promise as she will fall for whatever the D.C. elite tells her to do at the time. I have seen that firsthand,” he said.
[Link]

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Thu, August 16, 2018 06:45:13 PM UTC0:00
This must be the longest-running primary contest in history. Believe it or not, it began when Ward announced a 2018 primary challenge against Flake in October 2016 (!) Arpaio and McSally launched in January - 8 months of campaigning - almost 2 years for Ward (!) AZ must put restrictions on this for the next go-around, maybe set primary elections earlier.

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