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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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US President - Popular Vote
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Parents |
> United States > U.S. Executive > Popular Vote
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Office | U.S. President |
Honorific | U.S. President - Abbr: U.S. President |
Type | General Election |
Filing Deadline | June 01, 2020 - 12:00pm Central |
Polls Open | November 03, 2020 - 06:00am Central |
Polls Close | November 03, 2020 - 07:00pm Central |
Term Start | January 20, 2021 - 12:00am |
Term End | January 20, 2025 - 12:00am |
Contributor | DylanSH99 |
Last Modified | Charlotte Rose August 17, 2023 08:39pm |
Data Sources | [Link] |
Description |
Includes several post certification updates, primarily in NY State's Suffolk County.
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CANDIDATES |
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Photo | |
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Name |
Vice President
Joe Biden |
(I) President
Donald J. Trump |
Jo Jorgensen |
Howie Hawkins |
(W)
Write-In |
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente |
Gloria E. La Riva |
Party | Democratic |
Republican |
Libertarian |
Green |
Nonpartisan |
Alliance |
Socialism and Liberation |
Campaign Logo | |
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Certified Votes | 81,285,571 (51.31%) |
74,225,038 (46.86%) |
1,865,622 (1.18%) |
406,676 (0.26%) |
159,752 (0.10%) |
88,256 (0.06%) |
85,778 (0.05%) |
Margin | 0 (0.00%) |
-7,060,533 (-4.46%) |
-79,419,949 (-50.13%) |
-80,878,895 (-51.06%) |
-81,125,819 (-51.21%) |
-81,197,315 (-51.26%) |
-81,199,793 (-51.26%) |
Predict Avg. | 49.65% |
43.14% |
0.34% |
0.14% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Cash On Hand |
$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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Website |
[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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Entry Date |
00/00/2016
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00/00/2016
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00/00/2020
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07/11/2020
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00/00/2020
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04/25/2020
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09/25/2019
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Bar | |
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Adj Poll Avg | 49.40%-- |
44.13%-- |
0.92%-- |
0.29%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 10/30/20-11/01/20 |
53.00% 2.0 |
41.00% -- |
1.00% -- |
1.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
YouGov 10/30/20-11/01/20 |
49.00% 3.0 |
41.00% 2.0 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Quinnipiac University 10/28/20-11/01/20 |
50.00% 1.0 |
39.00% 2.0 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies 10/29/20-10/31/20 |
52.00% -- |
42.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Morning Consult 10/29/20-10/31/20 |
52.00% -- |
44.00% 1.0 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Survey USA 10/29/20-10/31/20 |
52.00% 1.0 |
44.00% 1.0 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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Endorsements | |
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MORE CANDIDATES |
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Name |
Kanye West |
Don Blankenship |
Brock Pierce |
Brian T. Carroll |
None of These Candidates |
Jade Simmons |
Alyson Kennedy |
Party | Birthday |
Constitution |
Independent |
American Solidarity |
Independent |
Independent |
Socialist Workers |
Campaign Logo | |
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Certified Votes | 71,073 (0.05%) |
60,124 (0.04%) |
49,798 (0.03%) |
40,230 (0.03%) |
14,079 (0.01%) |
7,272 (0.01%) |
6,805 (0.00%) |
Margin | -81,214,498 (-51.27%) |
-81,225,447 (-51.27%) |
-81,235,773 (-51.28%) |
-81,245,341 (-51.29%) |
-81,271,492 (-51.30%) |
-81,278,299 (-51.31%) |
-81,278,766 (-51.31%) |
Predict Avg. | 0.11% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Cash On Hand |
$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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Website |
[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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Entry Date |
07/04/2020
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05/02/2020
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06/01/2020
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00/00/2019
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06/01/2020
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06/01/2020
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01/29/2020
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Adj Poll Avg | 0.02%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 10/30/20-11/01/20 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
YouGov 10/30/20-11/01/20 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Quinnipiac University 10/28/20-11/01/20 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies 10/29/20-10/31/20 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Morning Consult 10/29/20-10/31/20 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Survey USA 10/29/20-10/31/20 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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Endorsements | |
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VIEW 33 MORE CANDIDATES |
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Start Date |
End Date |
Type |
Title |
Contributor |
Sep 15, 2020 08:00pm |
Sep 15, 2020 09:00pm |
Town Hall |
ABC News Town Hall with Donald Trump
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IndyGeorgia |
Sep 17, 2020 07:00pm |
Sep 17, 2020 09:00pm |
Town Hall |
CNN Town Hall with Joe Biden
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RP |
Sep 29, 2020 08:00pm |
Sep 29, 2020 09:30pm |
Debate |
First 2020 US Presidential Debate
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RP |
Oct 15, 2020 07:00pm |
Oct 15, 2020 09:00pm |
Town Hall |
NBC News Town Hall with Donald Trump
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RP |
Oct 15, 2020 07:00pm |
Oct 15, 2020 09:00pm |
Town Hall |
ABC News Town Hall with Joe Biden
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RP |
Oct 15, 2020 08:00pm |
Oct 15, 2020 09:30pm |
Debate |
Second 2020 US Presidential Debate - Canceled
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RP |
Oct 22, 2020 08:00pm |
Oct 22, 2020 09:30pm |
Debate |
Third 2020 US Presidential Debate
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RP |
| VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS |
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Lng |
Title |
Run Time |
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Contributor |
| INFORMATION LINKS |
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DISCUSSION |
[View All 143 Previous Messages] |
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D:6086 | Jason (11889.0225 points)
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Fri, October 30, 2020 06:10:55 AM UTC0:00
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I very much buy into the "shy Trump voter" theory if for no other reason than the fact that the states Trump did unexpectedly well in were states that elected Obama twice. There's no denying that there were working-class voters who were willing to take a chance on Trump back when he was running on a protectionist, pro-industrial, economic nationalist message. But maybe they didn't want to be affiliated with the racist and sexist stuff, either, and were generally reserved regarding their support.
That being said, I think the greater issue in 2020 is the potential failure for polls to accurately gauge voter turnout in rural areas. In places like Florida and Ohio in 2018, there was still a last-minute rural surge that led to Republican candidates overperforming in those states. For that reason, I'm not really buying into the idea of Biden maintaining a 1-point lead in places like Georgia or North Carolina either. I could be wrong, and there have been years when polls were accurate. But it has been a very long time since polls underestimated Democratic support.
I very much buy into the "shy Trump voter" theory if for no other reason than the fact that the states Trump did unexpectedly well in were states that elected Obama twice. There's no denying that there were working-class voters who were willing to take a chance on Trump back when he was running on a protectionist, pro-industrial, economic nationalist message. But maybe they didn't want to be affiliated with the racist and sexist stuff, either, and were generally reserved regarding their support.
That being said, I think the greater issue in 2020 is the potential failure for polls to accurately gauge voter turnout in rural areas. In places like Florida and Ohio in 2018, there was still a last-minute rural surge that led to Republican candidates overperforming in those states. For that reason, I'm not really buying into the idea of Biden maintaining a 1-point lead in places like Georgia or North Carolina either. I could be wrong, and there have been years when polls were accurate. But it has been a very long time since polls underestimated Democratic support.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Fri, October 30, 2020 02:08:43 PM UTC0:00
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But it has been a very long time since polls underestimated Democratic support.
In presidential races, the last time polls underestimated Democratic support was... 2012.
Jason: But it has been a very long time since polls underestimated Democratic support.
In presidential races, the last time polls underestimated Democratic support was... 2012.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Fri, October 30, 2020 03:00:20 PM UTC0:00
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Fivethirtyeight has the data on poll performance relative to the actual outcome at this link. The polls underestimated Democratic support by 2.5 points in 2012. They overestimated Democratic performance by about a point in 2004 and 2008 and overestimated Republican support by about 2 points in 2000. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
Fivethirtyeight has the data on poll performance relative to the actual outcome at this link. The polls underestimated Democratic support by 2.5 points in 2012. They overestimated Democratic performance by about a point in 2004 and 2008 and overestimated Republican support by about 2 points in 2000. [Link]
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D:6086 | Jason (11889.0225 points)
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Fri, October 30, 2020 03:09:25 PM UTC0:00
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My memory of 2012 could be faulty. I recalled the polls being essentially correct, with polls showing a narrow lead for Obama in the national popular vote, and the end result being Obama narrowly winning the popular vote. As far as statewide polls, Obama didn't win anything he wasn't supposed to.
My memory of 2012 could be faulty. I recalled the polls being essentially correct, with polls showing a narrow lead for Obama in the national popular vote, and the end result being Obama narrowly winning the popular vote. As far as statewide polls, Obama didn't win anything he wasn't supposed to.
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Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Thu, November 5, 2020 03:09:54 AM UTC0:00
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I present this as evidence there are still defenders of polling accuracy.
https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/1324169335494057986
I present this as evidence there are still defenders of polling accuracy.
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D:1 | RP ( 5506.7227 points)
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Fri, November 6, 2020 01:01:54 AM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324469384035864577
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D:391 | Qbanito ( 3054.5449 points)
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Tue, November 10, 2020 05:10:23 PM UTC0:00
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So are we looking at about a 5 million vote margin for Biden or could that go even higher?
So are we looking at about a 5 million vote margin for Biden or could that go even higher?
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Tue, November 10, 2020 06:31:15 PM UTC0:00
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So are we looking at about a 5 million vote margin for Biden or could that go even higher?
Yes, the margin will go higher. It takes weeks for California to count all the votes. As of yesterday, this source says there were an estimated 3.6 million votes left to count. https://localnewsmatters.org/2020/11/09/with-some-4-million-ballots-to-go-what-are-the-odds-that-big-california-races-swing/
Qbanito: So are we looking at about a 5 million vote margin for Biden or could that go even higher?
Yes, the margin will go higher. It takes weeks for California to count all the votes. As of yesterday, this source says there were an estimated 3.6 million votes left to count. [Link]
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D:1 | RP ( 5506.7227 points)
x2
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Wed, November 25, 2020 03:22:01 PM UTC0:00
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Biden is now over 80 million votes and has a higher % than Reagan did in 1980.
Biden is now over 80 million votes and has a higher % than Reagan did in 1980.
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Un:9757 | BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
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Wed, December 2, 2020 12:06:59 AM UTC0:00
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1333922580223430657?s=20
?s=20
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