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  US President - Popular Vote
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > U.S. Executive > Popular Vote
OfficeU.S. President
HonorificU.S. President - Abbr: U.S. President
Type General Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 03, 2020 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close November 03, 2020 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2021 - 12:00am
Term End January 20, 2025 - 12:00am
ContributorDylanSH99
Last ModifiedCharlotte Rose August 17, 2023 08:39pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Includes several post certification updates, primarily in NY State's Suffolk County.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2016
NameHillary Clinton Votes65,853,514 (48.19%)
Term01/20/2017 - 01/20/2021 Margin2,868,686 (+2.10%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 10, 2020 US President - CST Primaries
Don Blankenship
CST 1,928
Apr 01, 2020 US President - LBT Primary
Jacob G. Hornberger
LBT 46,821
Apr 01, 2020 US President - G Primaries
Howie Hawkins
G 15,843
Aug 11, 2020 US President - D Primaries
Joe Biden
D 35,791,449
Aug 11, 2020 US President - R Primaries
Donald J. Trump
R 19,299,115
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
04/07/2017 11/03/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Joe Biden 13 16 1 2
Donald J. Trump 4 1 2 --
Howard Schultz 1 ------
Leaning Call: Joe Biden (81.16%)
Weighted Call: Joe Biden (99.85%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

03/27/2017 11/01/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Vice President Joe Biden (I) President Donald J. Trump Jo Jorgensen Howie Hawkins (W) Write-In Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente Gloria E. La Riva
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian Green Nonpartisan Alliance Socialism and Liberation
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 81,285,571 (51.31%) 74,225,038 (46.86%) 1,865,622 (1.18%) 406,676 (0.26%) 159,752 (0.10%) 88,256 (0.06%) 85,778 (0.05%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -7,060,533 (-4.46%) -79,419,949 (-50.13%) -80,878,895 (-51.06%) -81,125,819 (-51.21%) -81,197,315 (-51.26%) -81,199,793 (-51.26%)
Predict Avg.49.65% 43.14% 0.34% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 00/00/2016 00/00/2016 00/00/2020 07/11/2020 00/00/2020 04/25/2020 09/25/2019
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (290 from 62 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg49.40%-- 44.13%-- 0.92%-- 0.29%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
10/30/20-11/01/20
53.00% 2.0 41.00% -- 1.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/30/20-11/01/20
49.00% 3.0 41.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Quinnipiac University 
10/28/20-11/01/20
50.00% 1.0 39.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies 
10/29/20-10/31/20
52.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
10/29/20-10/31/20
52.00% -- 44.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/29/20-10/31/20
52.00% 1.0 44.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
REF
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Kanye West Don Blankenship Brock Pierce Brian T. Carroll None of These Candidates Jade Simmons Alyson Kennedy
PartyBirthday Constitution Independent American Solidarity Independent Independent Socialist Workers
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 71,073 (0.05%) 60,124 (0.04%) 49,798 (0.03%) 40,230 (0.03%) 14,079 (0.01%) 7,272 (0.01%) 6,805 (0.00%)
Margin-81,214,498 (-51.27%) -81,225,447 (-51.27%) -81,235,773 (-51.28%) -81,245,341 (-51.29%) -81,271,492 (-51.30%) -81,278,299 (-51.31%) -81,278,766 (-51.31%)
Predict Avg.0.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 07/04/2020 05/02/2020 06/01/2020 00/00/2019 06/01/2020 06/01/2020 01/29/2020
MATCHUP POLLS (290 from 62 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.02%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Redfield & Wilton Strategies 
10/30/20-11/01/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
10/30/20-11/01/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Quinnipiac University 
10/28/20-11/01/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies 
10/29/20-10/31/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
10/29/20-10/31/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Survey USA 
10/29/20-10/31/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 33 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Michael B. Puskar (Un)
May 01, 2017 -  00, 2020
Howard Schultz (I)
Sep 06, 2019
Bill Bayes (PRB)
May 24, 2017 - Apr 01, 2019
Keith Davenport (I)
May 01, 2017 - Aug 17, 2018
Jeremy Gable (I)
May 11, 2015 - Oct 15, 2017

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor
Sep 15, 2020 08:00pm Sep 15, 2020 09:00pm Town Hall ABC News Town Hall with Donald Trump  IndyGeorgia 
Sep 17, 2020 07:00pm Sep 17, 2020 09:00pm Town Hall CNN Town Hall with Joe Biden  RP 
Sep 29, 2020 08:00pm Sep 29, 2020 09:30pm Debate First 2020 US Presidential Debate   RP 
Oct 15, 2020 07:00pm Oct 15, 2020 09:00pm Town Hall NBC News Town Hall with Donald Trump  RP 
Oct 15, 2020 07:00pm Oct 15, 2020 09:00pm Town Hall ABC News Town Hall with Joe Biden  RP 
Oct 15, 2020 08:00pm Oct 15, 2020 09:30pm Debate Second 2020 US Presidential Debate - Canceled  RP 
Oct 22, 2020 08:00pm Oct 22, 2020 09:30pm Debate Third 2020 US Presidential Debate  RP 

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/27/2020 Donald J. Trump TVAd Feel Good eng Middle Class Miracle  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/27/2020 Joe Biden TVAd Feel Good eng Rising  00:01:00 RP 
10/19/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Not our vote. Not our faith.  00:01:10 RP 
10/19/2020 vs Joe Biden TVAd Attack eng With Joe Biden, China is in Charge  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/12/2020 Kanye West TVAd Feel Good eng Kanye West releases his official Presidential Campaign Ad | Calling for Write-In Votes  00:01:22 data 
09/30/2020 Gloria E. La Riva TVAd Issue eng Gloria La Riva: A Socialist Answer to the Two Corporate Parties  00:02:20 data 
09/29/2020 vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Endorsement eng Our Moment  00:01:35 RP 
09/19/2020 Howie Hawkins vs Joe Biden TVAd Mixed eng Dear Bernie Supporters  00:02:07 data 
08/27/2020 Joe Biden vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Feel Good eng Keep Up  00:02:00 RP 
08/22/2020 Howie Hawkins vs Joe Biden Issue Video Attack eng Howie Responds to Joe Biden's Acceptance Speech at the Democratic Convention  00:15:39 data 
08/19/2020 Howie Hawkins vs Joe Biden TVAd Contrast eng Howie Hawkins 2020 Ad - For Our Future  00:01:17 data 
08/18/2020 Charlie Kam vs Candidacy Announcement Biography eng FUTURIST, 2020 TRANSHUMANIST PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE - CHARLIE KAM  00:49:44 data 
08/17/2020 vs Joe Biden Web Only Ad Attack eng What Happened to Joe Biden?  00:01:18 RP 
08/14/2020 Joe Biden vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Issue eng Ready to Lead   00:00:30 RP 
07/30/2020 vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Humor eng Wake Up  00:06:25 RP 
07/26/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Didn't Matter  00:01:00 RP 
07/24/2020 Joe Biden vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Attack eng Maxwell  00:01:16 RP 
07/23/2020 vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Attack eng Failure  00:02:36 RP 
07/22/2020 Donald J. Trump vs Joe Biden TVAd Defend spa Goya  00:00:30 RP 
07/21/2020 vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Humor eng Trumpfeld  00:01:45 RP 
07/17/2020 vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Attack eng New  00:01:08 RP 
07/15/2020 Donald J. Trump vs Joe Biden TVAd Attack eng You won't be safe in Joe Biden's America  00:00:30 RP 
07/13/2020 Howie Hawkins TVAd Issue eng Howie Hawkins: Hey Media! Do Your Jobs!  00:01:00 data 
07/11/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Law and Order  00:01:00 RP 
07/08/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Names  00:01:15 RP 
07/07/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Whispers  00:01:15 RP 
07/06/2020 Joe Biden vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Biography eng That's Joe  00:00:15 RP 
07/05/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Historic  00:01:10 RP 
07/02/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Rushmore  00:01:00 RP 
07/01/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack rus Fellow Traveler  00:01:38 RP 
07/01/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Contrast eng Which Side Of History  00:01:15 RP 
06/30/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Betrayed  00:01:00 RP 
06/28/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Contrast eng Debt  00:01:00 RP 
06/27/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Bounty  00:01:00 RP 
06/25/2020 Joe Biden vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Contrast eng How A President Leads  00:01:00 RP 
06/23/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Truth  00:01:00 RP 
06/22/2020 Joe Biden vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Contrast eng Biden: He can run and drink water  00:00:54 RP 
06/19/2020 Joe Biden Web Only Ad Feel Good eng Promise  00:00:15 RP 
06/18/2020 Joe Biden TVAd Feel Good eng My Commitment  00:01:00 RP 
06/18/2020 Joe Biden vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Feel Good eng Unite Us  00:01:00 RP 
06/16/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Descent  00:01:00 RP 
06/06/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Just Doesn't Care  00:00:32 RP 
06/03/2020 Joe Biden vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Feel Good eng Build The Future  00:01:00 RP 
05/31/2020 Brian T. Carroll TVAd Biography eng Brian Carroll For President 2020  00:01:00 data 
05/22/2020 vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Attack eng Deer In The Headlights  00:01:05 RP 
05/11/2020 vs Donald J. Trump Web Only Ad Attack eng Timeline  00:02:42 RP 
05/04/2020 vs Donald J. Trump TVAd Attack eng Mourning in America  00:01:00 RP 
04/17/2020 Jo Jorgensen TVAd Issue eng Break the Media Blockade  00:00:41 data 
04/14/2020 Joe Biden Web Only Ad Endorsement eng Former President Barack Obama Endorses Joe Biden for President  00:11:57 RP 
02/24/2020 Joseph "Joe" Kishore TVAd Issue eng #Socialism2020 Joseph Kishore for US president: "Free Julian Assange and Chelsea Manning!" Socialist Equality Party  00:08:27 data 
12/04/2019 Joe Biden TVAd Contrast eng Laughed At  00:01:03 EastTexasDem 
08/22/2019 Joe Biden TVAd Feel Good eng President Obama's First Decision  00:01:00 RP 
01/21/2019 Dario Hunter TVAd Mixed eng Dario Hunter - Announcement of 2020 Exploratory Committee  00:05:02 data 
10/22/2018 Web Only Ad Biography eng Be our Electors!  00:00:30 Charlotte Rose 
10/18/2018 Web Only Ad Biography eng 22 for President  00:01:17 Charlotte Rose 
08/13/2017 Donald J. Trump TVAd Defend eng Let President Trump Do His Job   00:00:30 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 20, 2020 10:55am Opinion GOP pollster Luntz blasts Trump campaign as worst he's ever seen  Article RP 
Oct 19, 2020 08:05pm News 8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign  Article WA Indy 
Oct 19, 2020 09:00am Analysis Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans   Article RP 
Oct 12, 2020 07:00pm News How Biden could end 2020 on election night — and why Trump’s path is unlikely  Article Chronicler 
Oct 07, 2020 11:50am Amusing ‘Red Sweater Guy’ Ken Bone is still an undecided voter for 2020 election  Article BrentinCO 
Oct 06, 2020 09:00pm News Trump authorizes declassification of all Russia collusion, Hillary Clinton email probe documents  Article BrentinCO 

DISCUSSION
[View All
143
Previous Messages]
 
D:6086Jason (11889.0225 points)
Fri, October 30, 2020 06:10:55 AM UTC0:00
I very much buy into the "shy Trump voter" theory if for no other reason than the fact that the states Trump did unexpectedly well in were states that elected Obama twice. There's no denying that there were working-class voters who were willing to take a chance on Trump back when he was running on a protectionist, pro-industrial, economic nationalist message. But maybe they didn't want to be affiliated with the racist and sexist stuff, either, and were generally reserved regarding their support.

That being said, I think the greater issue in 2020 is the potential failure for polls to accurately gauge voter turnout in rural areas. In places like Florida and Ohio in 2018, there was still a last-minute rural surge that led to Republican candidates overperforming in those states. For that reason, I'm not really buying into the idea of Biden maintaining a 1-point lead in places like Georgia or North Carolina either. I could be wrong, and there have been years when polls were accurate. But it has been a very long time since polls underestimated Democratic support.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Fri, October 30, 2020 02:08:43 PM UTC0:00
Jason: But it has been a very long time since polls underestimated Democratic support.

In presidential races, the last time polls underestimated Democratic support was... 2012.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Fri, October 30, 2020 03:00:20 PM UTC0:00
Fivethirtyeight has the data on poll performance relative to the actual outcome at this link. The polls underestimated Democratic support by 2.5 points in 2012. They overestimated Democratic performance by about a point in 2004 and 2008 and overestimated Republican support by about 2 points in 2000. [Link]

 
D:6086Jason (11889.0225 points)
Fri, October 30, 2020 03:09:25 PM UTC0:00
My memory of 2012 could be faulty. I recalled the polls being essentially correct, with polls showing a narrow lead for Obama in the national popular vote, and the end result being Obama narrowly winning the popular vote. As far as statewide polls, Obama didn't win anything he wasn't supposed to.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Thu, November 5, 2020 03:09:54 AM UTC0:00
I present this as evidence there are still defenders of polling accuracy.


 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Fri, November 6, 2020 01:01:54 AM UTC0:00

 
D:391Qbanito ( 3054.5449 points)
Tue, November 10, 2020 05:10:23 PM UTC0:00
So are we looking at about a 5 million vote margin for Biden or could that go even higher?

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Tue, November 10, 2020 06:31:15 PM UTC0:00
Qbanito: So are we looking at about a 5 million vote margin for Biden or could that go even higher?

Yes, the margin will go higher. It takes weeks for California to count all the votes. As of yesterday, this source says there were an estimated 3.6 million votes left to count. [Link]

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
x2
Wed, November 25, 2020 03:22:01 PM UTC0:00
Biden is now over 80 million votes and has a higher % than Reagan did in 1980.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, December 2, 2020 12:06:59 AM UTC0:00
?s=20

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