Valadao ran far behind his usual percentages this cycle so I would not be surprised if the remaining votes are less than favorable to him. There are almond growers in this district and tariffs are not good for them, so I suspect that and increased Latino turnout pulled Valadao down.
Valadao ran far behind his usual percentages this cycle so I would not be surprised if the remaining votes are less than favorable to him. There are almond growers in this district and tariffs are not good for them, so I suspect that and increased Latino turnout pulled Valadao down.
A batch of votes came in from Fresno, Kings, and Tulare Counties (all but Kern). In that batch, Cox was running 10.6% ahead of the combined overall votes in those 3 counties. There should be about 12,000 votes left to count - my projection is that Valadao will win by 173 votes. Most of the remaining ballots are provisional and election day registrations which may be even more Democratic than this last batch, though, which would put Cox over the top. This race may have been "called" on election night, but it will end up being the closest House race in the country.
A batch of votes came in from Fresno, Kings, and Tulare Counties (all but Kern). In that batch, Cox was running 10.6% ahead of the combined overall votes in those 3 counties. There should be about 12,000 votes left to count - my projection is that Valadao will win by 173 votes. Most of the remaining ballots are provisional and election day registrations which may be even more Democratic than this last batch, though, which would put Cox over the top. This race may have been "called" on election night, but it will end up being the closest House race in the country.
The latest batch closed the gap between Valadao and Cox from 2,178 to 930. I haven't seen the outstanding ballots report updated but Kern should still have about 1,159 left in CA-21. About 4,560 are left from Fresno, 2,278 from Kings, and 851 from Tulare. The latter 2 counties should give Valadao a small number of votes, but Fresno and the remainder of Kern should shift the margin substantially toward Cox.
The latest batch closed the gap between Valadao and Cox from 2,178 to 930. I haven't seen the outstanding ballots report updated but Kern should still have about 1,159 left in CA-21. About 4,560 are left from Fresno, 2,278 from Kings, and 851 from Tulare. The latter 2 counties should give Valadao a small number of votes, but Fresno and the remainder of Kern should shift the margin substantially toward Cox.
Most or all of the remaining Fresno County votes just came in. Cox got 54.9% and gained over 500 votes. I estimate 4,125 ballots left, about half of which are from Kern County. My projection is now a Cox win by 149 votes.
Most or all of the remaining Fresno County votes just came in. Cox got 54.9% and gained over 500 votes. I estimate 4,125 ballots left, about half of which are from Kern County. My projection is now a Cox win by 149 votes.
I'm seeing it reported that Fresno County still has 15,000 ballots left, which would mean their estimate of 30,000 left before this latest results dump was way too low. My estimate of a Cox win by 149 votes assumes no outstanding votes from Fresno County, so if there are 15,000 votes left Cox would be a strong favorite to win at this point.
I'm seeing it reported that Fresno County still has 15,000 ballots left, which would mean their estimate of 30,000 left before this latest results dump was way too low. My estimate of a Cox win by 149 votes assumes no outstanding votes from Fresno County, so if there are 15,000 votes left Cox would be a strong favorite to win at this point.
Yeah, they have updated the outstanding ballots list https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf?_ga=2.239144771.1185529446.1541696745-1813463894.1541538118 and Fresno County does indeed have 15,200 left. Kings County also reduced their total by about 10% as well which hurts Valadao. That shifts my projection to Cox +435 votes but we'll have to wait until Monday late afternoon for the next update from the counties.
Yeah, they have updated the outstanding ballots list [Link] and Fresno County does indeed have 15,200 left. Kings County also reduced their total by about 10% as well which hurts Valadao. That shifts my projection to Cox +435 votes but we'll have to wait until Monday late afternoon for the next update from the counties.
Guess we will know in the next few days who's won. I'm not surprised Valadao could lose as this was a pretty blue seat to begin with. I've no idea what's going to happen with TJ Cox and the residency issue, he did say that it was an honest mistake but I'm assuming he'll take all steps to correct it if he's the Rep-Elect. Have to wonder if Valadao could have won this seat if he voted against the Health Care Repeal bill.
Guess we will know in the next few days who's won. I'm not surprised Valadao could lose as this was a pretty blue seat to begin with. I've no idea what's going to happen with TJ Cox and the residency issue, he did say that it was an honest mistake but I'm assuming he'll take all steps to correct it if he's the Rep-Elect. Have to wonder if Valadao could have won this seat if he voted against the Health Care Repeal bill.
Most of Kern County's outstanding ballots came in and Cox won them 1,384-499 or 73.5%-26.5%. He's now ahead by 438 votes and I project him to win by 599 votes.
Most of Kern County's outstanding ballots came in and Cox won them 1,384-499 or 73.5%-26.5%. He's now ahead by 438 votes and I project him to win by 599 votes.
All 4 of California's districts were represented by Democrats in 1884, so technically it's not a record, but yeah a 46-7 delegation is pretty shocking.
All 4 of California's districts were represented by Democrats in 1884, so technically it's not a record, but yeah a 46-7 delegation is pretty shocking.
Kings County just reported inn all or nearly all of its remaining ballots. This is the most conservative part of the district and Valadao's best chance, but in this batch of mostly provisionals and same-day registrations Cox actually won 52% of the vote and extended his lead. This race is over.
Kings County just reported inn all or nearly all of its remaining ballots. This is the most conservative part of the district and Valadao's best chance, but in this batch of mostly provisionals and same-day registrations Cox actually won 52% of the vote and extended his lead. This race is over.
In the latest batch of provisionals and same-day registrations from Tulare County, Cox received 68% of the vote compared to only 46% in the county overall.
In the latest batch of provisionals and same-day registrations from Tulare County, Cox received 68% of the vote compared to only 46% in the county overall.
57,239 (50.38%)
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D:7918
