Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource." 
Email: Password:

  US President - D Primaries
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > U.S. Executive > Popular Vote
OfficePresident
HonorificPresident - Abbr: President
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open February 03, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Close August 11, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorM@
Last ModifiedE Pluribus Unum July 24, 2022 09:23pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Candidates who withdrew before the Iowa Caucuses while qualifying for at least one primary ballot:

Joe Sestak (December 1st, on the ballot in NH/AR/MI/CA/FL)
Steve Bullock (December 2nd, on the ballot in NH/AR)
Kamala Harris (December 3rd, on the ballot in NH/AR/TN)
Julian Castro (January 2nd, on the ballot in 19 states)
Marianne Williamson (January 10th, on the ballot in 22 states)
Cory Booker (January 13th, on the ballot in 26 states)
John Delaney (January 31st, on the ballot in 27 states)

Candidates who dropped out after Iowa:
Andrew Yang (February 11th)
Michael Bennet (February 11th)
Deval Patrick (February 12th)
Tom Steyer (February 29th)
Pete Buttigieg (March 1st)
Amy Klobuchar (March 2nd)
Mike Bloomberg (March 4th)
Elizabeth Warren (March 5th)
Tulsi Gabbard (March 19th)
Bernie Sanders (April 8th)
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2016
NameHillary Clinton Votes65,853,514 (48.19%)
Term01/20/2017 - 01/20/2021 Margin2,868,686 (+2.10%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/03/2020
NameJoe Biden Votes81,285,571 (51.31%)
Term01/20/2021 - 01/20/2025 Margin7,060,533 (+4.46%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceUS President - Popular Vote 11/03/2020
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/18/2016 08/11/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Bernie Sanders --1 2 1
Joe Biden 7 4 1 1
Tulsi Gabbard 2 ------
Elizabeth Warren 1 2 ----
Leaning Call: Joe Biden (53.66%)
Weighted Call: Joe Biden (95.60%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

10/05/2016 03/13/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Vice President Joe Biden Sen. Bernie Sanders Sen. Elizabeth Warren Mayor Michael R. "Mike" Bloomberg Mayor Pete Buttigieg Sen. Amy Klobuchar Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 18,419,788 (51.46%) 9,531,092 (26.63%) 2,780,873 (7.77%) 2,479,805 (6.93%) 912,214 (2.55%) 524,400 (1.47%) 270,620 (0.76%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -8,888,696 (-24.83%) -15,638,915 (-43.69%) -15,939,983 (-44.54%) -17,507,574 (-48.92%) -17,895,388 (-50.00%) -18,149,168 (-50.71%)
Predict Avg.13.33% 12.67% 7.78% 0.00% 5.40% 0.00% 2.17%
Cash On Hand $-- $0.00 $0.00 $-- $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 04/25/2019 02/19/2019
Dropped Out
04/08/2020
12/31/2018
Dropped Out
03/05/2020
11/24/2019
Dropped Out
03/04/2020
04/14/2019
Dropped Out
03/01/2020
02/10/2019
Dropped Out
03/02/2020
01/11/2019
Dropped Out
03/19/2020
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (220 from 37 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg32.74%-- 30.20%-- 12.16%-- 13.70%-- 10.07%-- 4.83%-- 0.54%--
Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies 
03/11/20-03/13/20
61.00% 35.0 32.00% 19.0 0.00% 19.0 0.00% -- 0.00% 7.0 0.00% 1.0 4.00% 4.0
Chism Strategies (D) 
03/09/20-03/09/20
50.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Reuters/Ipsos 
03/06/20-03/09/20
59.00% 4.0 41.00% 4.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Quinnipiac University 
03/05/20-03/08/20
54.00% 37.0 35.00% 10.0 0.00% 14.0 0.00% 15.0 0.00% 10.0 0.00% 4.0 2.00% 1.0
Morning Consult 
03/05/20-03/08/20
56.00% 20.0 38.00% 10.0 0.00% 14.0 0.00% 19.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 3.00% --
SSRS 
03/04/20-03/07/20
52.00% 26.0 36.00% 16.0 7.00% 9.0 0.00% 5.0 0.00% 8.0 0.00% 3.0 0.00% 1.0
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Tom Steyer Andrew Yang Uncommitted Sen. Michael Bennet HUD Secretary Julián Castro Sen. Cory Booker No Preference
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 258,848 (0.72%) 160,733 (0.45%) 129,884 (0.36%) 62,260 (0.17%) 37,037 (0.10%) 31,575 (0.09%) 31,399 (0.09%)
Margin-18,160,940 (-50.74%) -18,259,055 (-51.02%) -18,289,904 (-51.10%) -18,357,528 (-51.29%) -18,382,751 (-51.36%) -18,388,213 (-51.38%) -18,388,389 (-51.38%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $0.00 $-- $-- $0.00 $0.00 $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 07/09/2019
Dropped Out
02/29/2020
11/06/2017
Dropped Out
02/00/2020
01/01/2020 05/02/2019
Dropped Out
02/11/2020
01/12/2019
Dropped Out
01/02/2020
02/01/2019
Dropped Out
01/13/2020
01/01/2020
MATCHUP POLLS (220 from 37 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg2.27%-- 3.44%-- 0.00%-- 0.49%-- 0.13%-- 2.11%-- 0.00%--
Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies 
03/11/20-03/13/20
0.00% -- 0.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Chism Strategies (D) 
03/09/20-03/09/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Reuters/Ipsos 
03/06/20-03/09/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Quinnipiac University 
03/05/20-03/08/20
0.00% 1.0 0.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
03/05/20-03/08/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SSRS 
03/04/20-03/07/20
0.00% 1.0 0.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 2.0 0.00% 3.0 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 32 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Wayne M. Messam (D)
Mar 13, 2019 - Nov 20, 2019
Brian P. Moore (D)
Nov 07, 2019 - Nov 13, 2019
Michael E. Arth (D)
Nov 09, 2018 - Nov 04, 2019
Beto O'Rourke (D)
Mar 14, 2019 - Nov 01, 2019
Tim Ryan (D)
Apr 04, 2019 - Oct 24, 2019
Bill de Blasio (D)
May 16, 2019 - Sep 20, 2019
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Jan 15, 2019 - Aug 28, 2019
Seth Moulton (D)
Apr 22, 2019 - Aug 23, 2019
Jay Inslee (D)
Jan 02, 2019 - Aug 21, 2019
John Hickenlooper (D)
Mar 04, 2019 - Aug 15, 2019
Stacey Abrams (D)
Aug 13, 2019
Mike Gravel (D)
Mar 19, 2019 - Aug 01, 2019
Ami Horowitz (D)
May 02, 2019 - Jul 31, 2019
Eric M. Swalwell (D)
Apr 08, 2019 - Jul 08, 2019
Joe Sanberg (D)
Jun 01, 2019
Terry McAuliffe (D)
Apr 17, 2019
Ryan Farber (D)
Feb 28, 2018 - Apr 04, 2019
Sherrod Brown (D)
Mar 07, 2019
Jeff Merkley (D)
Mar 05, 2019
Eric Holder (D)
Mar 04, 2019
Mitchell J. "Mitch" Landrieu (D)
Feb 06, 2019
Adam Schiff (D)
Feb 04, 2019
Eric Garcetti (D)
Jan 29, 2019
Richard Ojeda II (D)
Nov 11, 2018 - Jan 25, 2019
Chris Murphy (D)
Jan 23, 2019
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Jan 18, 2019
Martin J. O'Malley (D)
Jan 03, 2019
Mark Zuckerberg (D)
 00, 2019
John F. Kerry (D)
Dec 07, 2018
Michael Avenatti (D)
Dec 04, 2018
Patrick Little (D)
Aug 08, 2018 - Nov 13, 2018
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (D)
Jan 09, 2017 - Oct 01, 2018
Jason Kander (D)
Jun 25, 2018
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (D)
Apr 00, 2018
Roy Cooper (D)
Mar 29, 2018
Luis V. Gutierrez (D)
Mar 00, 2018
Oprah Winfrey (D)
Feb 22, 2018
Andrew Cuomo (D)
 00, 2018
William McRaven (D)
 00, 2018
Howard Schultz (D)
 00, 2018
Nina Turner (D)
 00, 2018
Al Franken (D)
Dec 00, 2017
Joseph P. Kennedy, III (D)
Jul 18, 2017
Hillary Clinton (D)
Apr 00, 2017
Tim Kaine (D)
Nov 17, 2016
Gavin Newsom (D)
 00, 2016

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor
Jun 26, 2019 06:00pm Jun 27, 2019 09:00pm Debate First 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Jul 30, 2019 07:00pm Jul 31, 2019 10:00pm Debate Second 2020 Democratic Presidental Primary Debate  RP 
Sep 04, 2019 06:00pm Sep 04, 2019 09:00pm Town Hall Democratic Primary Climate Town Hall  RP 
Sep 12, 2019 08:00pm Sep 12, 2019 10:00pm General Election Third 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate   RP 
Oct 10, 2019 08:00pm Oct 10, 2019 10:00pm Town Hall Democratic Primary LGBTQ Town Hall  RP 
Oct 15, 2019 07:00pm Oct 15, 2019 10:00pm Debate Fourth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Nov 20, 2019 07:00pm Nov 20, 2019 09:00pm Debate Fifth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Dec 07, 2019 07:00pm Dec 07, 2019 10:00pm Interview Teamsters Presidential Forum  RP 
Dec 19, 2019 07:00pm Dec 19, 2019 09:00pm Debate Sixth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Jan 14, 2020 07:00pm Jan 14, 2020 10:00pm Debate Seventh 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate   RP 
Feb 07, 2020 07:00pm Feb 07, 2020 10:00pm Debate Eighth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate   RP 
Feb 19, 2020 07:00pm Feb 19, 2020 10:00pm Debate Ninth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Feb 25, 2020 07:00pm Feb 25, 2020 10:00pm Debate Tenth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Mar 15, 2020 07:00pm Mar 15, 2020 09:00pm Debate Eleventh 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
02/24/2020 Tulsi Gabbard TVAd Issue eng Stop Big Pharma Greed  00:02:10 data 
01/14/2020 Deval L. Patrick Interview Biography eng Coffee with Candidates: Deval Patrick  00:05:05 data 
12/27/2019 Tulsi Gabbard TVAd Feel Good eng I will always respect & listen to you  00:02:17 data 
12/21/2019 Deval L. Patrick TVAd Biography eng 'Later, but not late:’ Deval Patrick on his presidential bid  00:05:13 data 
12/19/2019 Cory Booker TVAd Feel Good eng Together  00:00:30 RP 
12/15/2019 Marianne Williamson TVAd Feel Good eng For Review: Exeter, NH couple reacts to Marianne's speech: "She would be an outstanding candidate."  00:01:47 data 
12/04/2019 Marianne Williamson TVAd Issue eng A Mother in the White House | Democratic Candidate Marianne Williamson  00:02:14 data 
12/04/2019 Joe Biden TVAd Contrast eng Laughed At  00:01:03 EastTexasDem 
11/15/2019 Andrew Yang TVAd Issue eng Paycheck  00:00:30 data 
11/13/2019 Elizabeth Warren TVAd Issue eng Elizabeth Warren Stands Up to Billionaires  00:00:30 RP 
09/17/2019 Michael Bennet TVAd Biography eng Most  00:00:30 RP 
09/17/2019 Michael Bennet TVAd Issue eng Truth  00:00:30 RP 
09/05/2019 Pete Buttigieg TVAd Mixed eng The Only Way  00:00:30 RP 
08/22/2019 Joe Biden TVAd Feel Good eng President Obama's First Decision  00:01:00 RP 
08/08/2019 Kamala Harris TVAd Mixed eng Me, Maya, and Mom  00:01:00 RP 
08/07/2019 Web Only Ad Mixed eng Rock 2.0  00:03:30 RP 
06/17/2019 Andrew Yang TVAd Biography eng Andrew Yang for President | Humanity First  00:02:30 Candidate Information Needed 
04/14/2019 Pete Buttigieg Candidacy Announcement Biography eng Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend announces presidential bid  01:55:39 RP 
01/21/2019 Marianne Williamson TVAd Issue eng Marianne For America - National Security  00:02:35 data 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Apr 09, 2020 03:00pm Announcement Biden adopts parts of Sanders' policies: lowering Medicare age and forgiving some college debt  Article RP 
Apr 05, 2020 10:00pm Election Guide Sanders’ ’narrow path’ to victory gets even narrower  Article WA Indy 
Mar 25, 2020 12:00pm News Could a ‘Draft Cuomo’ Movement Be in the Democrats’ Future?  Article BrentinCO 
Mar 19, 2020 09:55am News Tulsi Gabbard Drops Out and Endorses Biden  Article RP 
Mar 14, 2020 09:30pm News A 'Never Biden' movement vows not to vote for Joe  Article WA Indy 
Mar 10, 2020 07:00pm Opinion Press: Bernie Sanders has already won  Article WA Indy 

DISCUSSION
[View All
706
Previous Messages]
 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
x2
Tue, March 3, 2020 07:28:55 PM UTC0:00
Polls that don't show a Bernie lead are biased and rigged

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Thu, March 5, 2020 03:41:43 PM UTC0:00
Not necessarily the best day for Yang to be declaring his candidacy for Mayor considering Warren dropping out will overshadow that news. You hate to see it

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Mon, March 9, 2020 04:39:30 AM UTC0:00
Biden wins the membership vote of the Machinists Union:
?s=20

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, March 11, 2020 04:14:24 AM UTC0:00
At this hour Biden has won Michigan, a must win for Bernie.
Should Bernie drop out?
Yes 5 (62.5%)
No 3 (37.5%)
8 Votes Cast
Polls Close March 17, 2020 12:00am

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Wed, March 11, 2020 06:14:05 AM UTC0:00
I don't think Bernie should drop out as long as he still has money. He can keep his supporters engaged and give them an opportunity to vote for him and support his issues. He should acknowledge, however, that Biden will win and run a strictly positive campaign accordingly.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Wed, March 11, 2020 06:45:03 AM UTC0:00
One could make a good argument for both. He *should* drop out in that the margins he's losing these states by indicates that he cannot make a turnaround large enough to win the nomination. Things could change rapidly, as this primary has proven, but if things continue to go this badly for Bernie, staying in would just be a waste of time.

His campaign's argument for not dropping out likely hinges on the hopes that he will have a great debate performance next week that will help him through the rest of the primary, although who knows how much that would actually change things. For the good of the party, Bernie staying in the race would help turnout downballot, as a one-person primary might encourage voters to stay home. Of course, Bernie would have to hold his back on his attacks to encourage party unity, which Bernie has not exactly been known to do.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, March 11, 2020 02:54:55 PM UTC0:00
I'm gonna say no, there's still 2115 Delegates on the table. And he pulls his punches at every step of the primary, yes he criticizes Joe, but he always stops at a certain point. EX: "My good FRIEND Joe Voted for the Iraq War, which was a terrible descision, My FRIEND". Bernie supporters see that there's more things he can criticise him for, But he pulls his punches to not go that far

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Wed, March 11, 2020 04:08:35 PM UTC0:00
Bernie would have to win all the remaining states at the same level he won Vermont.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Wed, March 11, 2020 09:53:27 PM UTC0:00
Corporate media saying increased turnout is helping Biden -[Link]

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, March 12, 2020 02:55:09 AM UTC0:00
?s=20

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Thu, March 12, 2020 03:40:38 AM UTC0:00
I saw that tweet, proof there was a line at that particular voting place. Results are proof that turnout didn't help Bernie this year. And I doubt everyone in that line is a student, but okay. I mean, Sanders still lost every county, but okay.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, March 12, 2020 02:54:10 PM UTC0:00
The denial is strong with this one.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, March 12, 2020 03:03:31 PM UTC0:00

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, March 12, 2020 03:17:04 PM UTC0:00
WA Indy: I saw that tweet, proof there was a line at that particular voting place. Results are proof that turnout didn't help Bernie this year. And I doubt everyone in that line is a student, but okay. I mean, Sanders still lost every county, but okay.

Same things happened in Texas and other states, mostly to students.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Thu, April 9, 2020 04:54:05 PM UTC0:00
DylanSH99: Is it time to put Biden in the various races for the general instead of Democratic Primary Winner?

What you don't think Roque De La Fuente III or Henry Hewes can pull it off?

 
D:8509DylanSH99 ( 1716.1335 points)
Thu, April 9, 2020 07:00:02 PM UTC0:00
E Pluribus Unum: What you don't think Roque De La Fuente III or Henry Hewes can pull it off?

In all seriousness, we already have Trump inputted because he already clinched and Biden is the only relevant Democrat left and is already officially the presumptive nominee.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, April 9, 2020 08:25:06 PM UTC0:00
Technically, we waited until Trump got a delegate majority.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, April 9, 2020 08:26:59 PM UTC0:00
I should add something where the dropped out people still show up in the main area if they actually receive votes. But with a drop out note.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, April 9, 2020 09:08:05 PM UTC0:00
Yeah, it's done now.

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 84.4516 points)
Sun, April 12, 2020 01:59:27 AM UTC0:00
I updated the popular vote totals. For some reason I couldn't add President Trump - he has 1,302 write-in votes so far.

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 84.4516 points)
Sun, April 12, 2020 02:00:38 AM UTC0:00
Also I have an Excel file with the Democratic primary totals that I would be glad to share with anyone.

 
R:114particleman ( 1080.6908 points)
Mon, April 27, 2020 01:48:44 AM UTC0:00
Chronicler (or anyone else...), do you know of a site that breaks down votes in the recent elections between in-person and early/absentee? I could swear I've seen this reported before but cannot find it listed on any of the sites I looked at including the official ones.

 
WmP:879Chronicler ( 84.4516 points)
Mon, April 27, 2020 11:04:07 AM UTC0:00
Hi Phil - this is not an easy type of statistic to find. You can get absentee results by contacting the counties and asking for the precinct breakdown. I don't know if they include early voting with those numbers or not.

 
R:114particleman ( 1080.6908 points)
Mon, April 27, 2020 05:30:45 PM UTC0:00
Well dang, I was hoping it was easier than that since I still have my own job to do and don't have time to do that. (Was trying to see if one could determine the effect of holding an in-person election on the spread of coronavirus by state and the results look pretty strong in most cases, but there are, as always, a couple outliers.)

Maybe I'll just email 538 or RCP and see if they want to pursue it since they probably have that data saved in a file somewhere.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
Fri, July 2, 2021 07:26:46 PM UTC0:00
Where's Comma-Lah Harris?

[View Next Page]