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  US President - D Primaries
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > U.S. Executive > Popular Vote
OfficePresident
HonorificPresident - Abbr: President
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open February 03, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Close August 11, 2020 - 12:00pm Central
Term Start January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorM@
Last ModifiedE Pluribus Unum July 24, 2022 09:23pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Candidates who withdrew before the Iowa Caucuses while qualifying for at least one primary ballot:

Joe Sestak (December 1st, on the ballot in NH/AR/MI/CA/FL)
Steve Bullock (December 2nd, on the ballot in NH/AR)
Kamala Harris (December 3rd, on the ballot in NH/AR/TN)
Julian Castro (January 2nd, on the ballot in 19 states)
Marianne Williamson (January 10th, on the ballot in 22 states)
Cory Booker (January 13th, on the ballot in 26 states)
John Delaney (January 31st, on the ballot in 27 states)

Candidates who dropped out after Iowa:
Andrew Yang (February 11th)
Michael Bennet (February 11th)
Deval Patrick (February 12th)
Tom Steyer (February 29th)
Pete Buttigieg (March 1st)
Amy Klobuchar (March 2nd)
Mike Bloomberg (March 4th)
Elizabeth Warren (March 5th)
Tulsi Gabbard (March 19th)
Bernie Sanders (April 8th)
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/08/2016
NameHillary Clinton Votes65,853,514 (48.19%)
Term01/20/2017 - 01/20/2021 Margin2,868,686 (+2.10%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/03/2020
NameJoe Biden Votes81,285,571 (51.31%)
Term01/20/2021 - 01/20/2025 Margin7,060,533 (+4.46%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceUS President - Popular Vote 11/03/2020
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/18/2016 08/11/2020
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Bernie Sanders --1 2 1
Joe Biden 7 4 1 1
Tulsi Gabbard 2 ------
Elizabeth Warren 1 2 ----
Leaning Call: Joe Biden (53.66%)
Weighted Call: Joe Biden (95.85%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

10/05/2016 03/13/2020

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Vice President Joe Biden Sen. Bernie Sanders Sen. Elizabeth Warren Mayor Michael R. "Mike" Bloomberg Mayor Pete Buttigieg Sen. Amy Klobuchar Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 18,419,788 (51.46%) 9,531,092 (26.63%) 2,780,873 (7.77%) 2,479,805 (6.93%) 912,214 (2.55%) 524,400 (1.47%) 270,620 (0.76%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -8,888,696 (-24.83%) -15,638,915 (-43.69%) -15,939,983 (-44.54%) -17,507,574 (-48.92%) -17,895,388 (-50.00%) -18,149,168 (-50.71%)
Predict Avg.13.33% 12.67% 7.78% 0.00% 5.40% 0.00% 2.17%
Cash On Hand $-- $0.00 $0.00 $-- $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 04/25/2019 02/19/2019
Dropped Out
04/08/2020
12/31/2018
Dropped Out
03/05/2020
11/24/2019
Dropped Out
03/04/2020
04/14/2019
Dropped Out
03/01/2020
02/10/2019
Dropped Out
03/02/2020
01/11/2019
Dropped Out
03/19/2020
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (220 from 37 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg32.74%-- 30.20%-- 12.16%-- 13.70%-- 10.07%-- 4.83%-- 0.54%--
Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies 
03/11/20-03/13/20
61.00% 35.0 32.00% 19.0 0.00% 19.0 0.00% -- 0.00% 7.0 0.00% 1.0 4.00% 4.0
Chism Strategies (D) 
03/09/20-03/09/20
50.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Reuters/Ipsos 
03/06/20-03/09/20
59.00% 4.0 41.00% 4.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Quinnipiac University 
03/05/20-03/08/20
54.00% 37.0 35.00% 10.0 0.00% 14.0 0.00% 15.0 0.00% 10.0 0.00% 4.0 2.00% 1.0
Morning Consult 
03/05/20-03/08/20
56.00% 20.0 38.00% 10.0 0.00% 14.0 0.00% 19.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 3.00% --
SSRS 
03/04/20-03/07/20
52.00% 26.0 36.00% 16.0 7.00% 9.0 0.00% 5.0 0.00% 8.0 0.00% 3.0 0.00% 1.0
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Tom Steyer Andrew Yang Uncommitted Sen. Michael Bennet HUD Secretary Julián Castro Sen. Cory Booker No Preference
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes 258,848 (0.72%) 160,733 (0.45%) 129,884 (0.36%) 62,260 (0.17%) 37,037 (0.10%) 31,575 (0.09%) 31,399 (0.09%)
Margin-18,160,940 (-50.74%) -18,259,055 (-51.02%) -18,289,904 (-51.10%) -18,357,528 (-51.29%) -18,382,751 (-51.36%) -18,388,213 (-51.38%) -18,388,389 (-51.38%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $0.00 $-- $-- $0.00 $0.00 $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 07/09/2019
Dropped Out
02/29/2020
11/06/2017
Dropped Out
02/00/2020
01/01/2020 05/02/2019
Dropped Out
02/11/2020
01/12/2019
Dropped Out
01/02/2020
02/01/2019
Dropped Out
01/13/2020
01/01/2020
MATCHUP POLLS (220 from 37 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg2.27%-- 3.44%-- 0.00%-- 0.49%-- 0.13%-- 2.11%-- 0.00%--
Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies 
03/11/20-03/13/20
0.00% -- 0.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% 1.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Chism Strategies (D) 
03/09/20-03/09/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Reuters/Ipsos 
03/06/20-03/09/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Quinnipiac University 
03/05/20-03/08/20
0.00% 1.0 0.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Morning Consult 
03/05/20-03/08/20
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SSRS 
03/04/20-03/07/20
0.00% 1.0 0.00% 3.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 2.0 0.00% 3.0 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 32 MORE CANDIDATES

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Wayne M. Messam (D)
Mar 13, 2019 - Nov 20, 2019
Brian P. Moore (D)
Nov 07, 2019 - Nov 13, 2019
Michael E. Arth (D)
Nov 09, 2018 - Nov 04, 2019
Beto O'Rourke (D)
Mar 14, 2019 - Nov 01, 2019
Tim Ryan (D)
Apr 04, 2019 - Oct 24, 2019
Bill de Blasio (D)
May 16, 2019 - Sep 20, 2019
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Jan 15, 2019 - Aug 28, 2019
Seth Moulton (D)
Apr 22, 2019 - Aug 23, 2019
Jay Inslee (D)
Jan 02, 2019 - Aug 21, 2019
John Hickenlooper (D)
Mar 04, 2019 - Aug 15, 2019
Stacey Abrams (D)
Aug 13, 2019
Mike Gravel (D)
Mar 19, 2019 - Aug 01, 2019
Ami Horowitz (D)
May 02, 2019 - Jul 31, 2019
Eric M. Swalwell (D)
Apr 08, 2019 - Jul 08, 2019
Joe Sanberg (D)
Jun 01, 2019
Terry McAuliffe (D)
Apr 17, 2019
Ryan Farber (D)
Feb 28, 2018 - Apr 04, 2019
Sherrod Brown (D)
Mar 07, 2019
Jeff Merkley (D)
Mar 05, 2019
Eric Holder (D)
Mar 04, 2019
Mitchell J. "Mitch" Landrieu (D)
Feb 06, 2019
Adam Schiff (D)
Feb 04, 2019
Eric Garcetti (D)
Jan 29, 2019
Richard Ojeda II (D)
Nov 11, 2018 - Jan 25, 2019
Chris Murphy (D)
Jan 23, 2019
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Jan 18, 2019
Martin J. O'Malley (D)
Jan 03, 2019
Mark Zuckerberg (D)
 00, 2019
John F. Kerry (D)
Dec 07, 2018
Michael Avenatti (D)
Dec 04, 2018
Patrick Little (D)
Aug 08, 2018 - Nov 13, 2018
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (D)
Jan 09, 2017 - Oct 01, 2018
Jason Kander (D)
Jun 25, 2018
Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (D)
Apr 00, 2018
Roy Cooper (D)
Mar 29, 2018
Luis V. Gutierrez (D)
Mar 00, 2018
Oprah Winfrey (D)
Feb 22, 2018
Andrew Cuomo (D)
 00, 2018
William McRaven (D)
 00, 2018
Howard Schultz (D)
 00, 2018
Nina Turner (D)
 00, 2018
Al Franken (D)
Dec 00, 2017
Joseph P. Kennedy, III (D)
Jul 18, 2017
Hillary Clinton (D)
Apr 00, 2017
Tim Kaine (D)
Nov 17, 2016
Gavin Newsom (D)
 00, 2016

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor
Jun 26, 2019 06:00pm Jun 27, 2019 09:00pm Debate First 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Jul 30, 2019 07:00pm Jul 31, 2019 10:00pm Debate Second 2020 Democratic Presidental Primary Debate  RP 
Sep 04, 2019 06:00pm Sep 04, 2019 09:00pm Town Hall Democratic Primary Climate Town Hall  RP 
Sep 12, 2019 08:00pm Sep 12, 2019 10:00pm General Election Third 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate   RP 
Oct 10, 2019 08:00pm Oct 10, 2019 10:00pm Town Hall Democratic Primary LGBTQ Town Hall  RP 
Oct 15, 2019 07:00pm Oct 15, 2019 10:00pm Debate Fourth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Nov 20, 2019 07:00pm Nov 20, 2019 09:00pm Debate Fifth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Dec 07, 2019 07:00pm Dec 07, 2019 10:00pm Interview Teamsters Presidential Forum  RP 
Dec 19, 2019 07:00pm Dec 19, 2019 09:00pm Debate Sixth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Jan 14, 2020 07:00pm Jan 14, 2020 10:00pm Debate Seventh 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate   RP 
Feb 07, 2020 07:00pm Feb 07, 2020 10:00pm Debate Eighth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate   RP 
Feb 19, 2020 07:00pm Feb 19, 2020 10:00pm Debate Ninth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Feb 25, 2020 07:00pm Feb 25, 2020 10:00pm Debate Tenth 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 
Mar 15, 2020 07:00pm Mar 15, 2020 09:00pm Debate Eleventh 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Debate  RP 

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
02/24/2020 Tulsi Gabbard TVAd Issue eng Stop Big Pharma Greed  00:02:10 data 
01/14/2020 Deval L. Patrick Interview Biography eng Coffee with Candidates: Deval Patrick  00:05:05 data 
12/27/2019 Tulsi Gabbard TVAd Feel Good eng I will always respect & listen to you  00:02:17 data 
12/21/2019 Deval L. Patrick TVAd Biography eng 'Later, but not late:’ Deval Patrick on his presidential bid  00:05:13 data 
12/19/2019 Cory Booker TVAd Feel Good eng Together  00:00:30 RP 
12/15/2019 Marianne Williamson TVAd Feel Good eng For Review: Exeter, NH couple reacts to Marianne's speech: "She would be an outstanding candidate."  00:01:47 data 
12/04/2019 Marianne Williamson TVAd Issue eng A Mother in the White House | Democratic Candidate Marianne Williamson  00:02:14 data 
12/04/2019 Joe Biden TVAd Contrast eng Laughed At  00:01:03 EastTexasDem 
11/15/2019 Andrew Yang TVAd Issue eng Paycheck  00:00:30 data 
11/13/2019 Elizabeth Warren TVAd Issue eng Elizabeth Warren Stands Up to Billionaires  00:00:30 RP 
09/17/2019 Michael Bennet TVAd Biography eng Most  00:00:30 RP 
09/17/2019 Michael Bennet TVAd Issue eng Truth  00:00:30 RP 
09/05/2019 Pete Buttigieg TVAd Mixed eng The Only Way  00:00:30 RP 
08/22/2019 Joe Biden TVAd Feel Good eng President Obama's First Decision  00:01:00 RP 
08/08/2019 Kamala Harris TVAd Mixed eng Me, Maya, and Mom  00:01:00 RP 
08/07/2019 Web Only Ad Mixed eng Rock 2.0  00:03:30 RP 
06/17/2019 Andrew Yang TVAd Biography eng Andrew Yang for President | Humanity First  00:02:30 Candidate Information Needed 
04/14/2019 Pete Buttigieg Candidacy Announcement Biography eng Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend announces presidential bid  01:55:39 RP 
01/21/2019 Marianne Williamson TVAd Issue eng Marianne For America - National Security  00:02:35 data 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Apr 09, 2020 03:00pm Announcement Biden adopts parts of Sanders' policies: lowering Medicare age and forgiving some college debt  Article RP 
Apr 05, 2020 10:00pm Election Guide Sanders’ ’narrow path’ to victory gets even narrower  Article WA Indy 
Mar 25, 2020 12:00pm News Could a ‘Draft Cuomo’ Movement Be in the Democrats’ Future?  Article BrentinCO 
Mar 19, 2020 09:55am News Tulsi Gabbard Drops Out and Endorses Biden  Article RP 
Mar 14, 2020 09:30pm News A 'Never Biden' movement vows not to vote for Joe  Article WA Indy 
Mar 10, 2020 07:00pm Opinion Press: Bernie Sanders has already won  Article WA Indy 

DISCUSSION
[View All
706
Previous Messages]
 
D:6086Jason (11889.0225 points)
x2 x2
Thu, March 21, 2019 07:23:05 PM UTC0:00
I don't actually believe any of these candidates will beat Trump, so for the first time ever I might just vote for whomever I like the most instead of making some calculation between likability and electability.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Thu, March 21, 2019 08:17:07 PM UTC0:00
Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!: Still more impressive than a Kirsten Gillibrand campaign appearance.

I don't know. Nothing better than "What is Kirsten going to flip flop on today in hopes that it will boost her poll numbers?"

 
POUM:6380Zeus the Moose ( 691.4546 points)
Fri, March 22, 2019 03:49:33 AM UTC0:00
As was to be expected, DSA has endorsed Bernie Sanders for president, by a vote of the National Political Committee. No official statement as of yet, as the conference call/"emergency meeting" is still probably going on or just ended, but whoever controls the Twitter account seemed more than eager to rush out the announcement ASAP.

Once an official statement comes out I'll add it to the endorsement.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Sat, March 23, 2019 01:24:03 AM UTC0:00

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Sat, March 23, 2019 05:49:48 AM UTC0:00
There is talk that Biden will a) declare that he would only serve one term and/or b) (as the graphic suggests) name a youthful running mate now. Either would be a gimmick and a sign of weakness. If he is too old to just run for president without constraints, he shouldn't run.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Sat, March 23, 2019 04:24:38 PM UTC0:00
CA Pol Junkie: There is talk that Biden will a) declare that he would only serve one term and/or b) (as the graphic suggests) name a youthful running mate now. Either would be a gimmick and a sign of weakness. If he is too old to just run for president without constraints, he shouldn't run.

I feel like the ageism surrounding Biden is much, much higher than around Sanders. I would guess that it is because potential supporters of Biden are much more practical than Sanders supporters.

But, unless there is some health problem, I don't see why he should employ such a gimmick. He is just as healthy as Bernie and Trump.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Sat, March 23, 2019 04:29:14 PM UTC0:00
Don't forget Warren.

 
I:262Karma Policeman ( 7106.0791 points)
Sun, March 24, 2019 02:39:47 AM UTC0:00
I'll probably vote for Harris just because if Trump gets beaten, I want to see it done by a woman and/or a person of color. Plus she seems competent.

I don't have illusions any of these people are up to the task, though. My best guess is that the 2020 Democrat takes Michigan + the Hillary states. Maybe NE District 2 as well.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 520.1045 points)
x2
Mon, March 25, 2019 09:39:02 PM UTC0:00
It's very possible the key to the nomination will be what it was last time ie., the Southern Black primary voters. I would assume this is where Biden's interest in this ploy would lie.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Tue, March 26, 2019 04:35:55 PM UTC0:00
Every top-tier candidate in the race has seen increases in support. Why is the media just assuming Biden is going to flop the second he gets in the race? Him and his team has been preparing for this for a while.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Tue, March 26, 2019 04:41:04 PM UTC0:00
Also @RP: Is there something that can be done with the adjusted poll avg that doesn't drop candidates into negatives and put them behind non-serious candidates?

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, March 26, 2019 07:08:19 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: Also @RP: Is there something that can be done with the adjusted poll avg that doesn't drop candidates into negatives and put them behind non-serious candidates?

That's the pollster bias adjustments. I suppose it doesn't really apply to partisan primaries, maybe I can not use it then.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Wed, March 27, 2019 03:34:44 AM UTC0:00
I think Schiff and Landrieu can be removed
[Link] - [Link]

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Wed, March 27, 2019 03:36:26 AM UTC0:00
Incredible that Yang's polling average is higher than Gillibrand's

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Wed, March 27, 2019 03:55:25 AM UTC0:00
Natalie: Incredible that Yang's polling average is higher than Gillibrand's

It isn't really. Adjusted poll averages can make things appear different than they are. Look at the polls and you will see that Gillibrand has performed better.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Fri, March 29, 2019 11:36:24 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: Also @RP: Is there something that can be done with the adjusted poll avg that doesn't drop candidates into negatives and put them behind non-serious candidates?

RP: That's the pollster bias adjustments. I suppose it doesn't really apply to partisan primaries, maybe I can not use it then.

Okay, I made it not use bias adjustments where there is a party set for the Race. It won't auto-recalc old Races, but clicking on the "Adj Poll Avg" link will recalc for a Race.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Sun, March 31, 2019 11:33:42 PM UTC0:00
My ranking at the moment is
1. Bernie Sanders
2. Tulsi Gabbard
3. Pete Buttigieg
4. Marianne Williamson
5. Elizabeth Warren
6. Andrew Yang
I have electability concerns when it comes to the last 3. Williamson and Yang for obvious reasons (lack of experience) and Warren because of lack of charisma/personality. I love her, but I don't think she'd be able to beat Trump.

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Sun, March 31, 2019 11:37:09 PM UTC0:00
I've donated to all of them except Warren and Buttigieg

 
I:9518Charlotte Rose ( 255.7746 points)
Sun, March 31, 2019 11:38:14 PM UTC0:00
Nooooo not Pete :(

1. Andrew Yang
2. Marianne Williamson
3. Mike Gravel
4. Bernie Sanders
5. Tulsi Gabbard
6. Elizabeth Warren

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Mon, April 1, 2019 02:23:03 AM UTC0:00
As the only remaining young Leftist on this site, heres my DEFINITIVE 2020 Rankings:

1. Bernie Sanders
2. Tulsi Gabbard
3. Mike Gravel
4. Elizabeth Warren
5. Andrew Yang
6. Marriane Williamson
7. Jay Inslee

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Mon, April 1, 2019 11:58:51 PM UTC0:00
James Comey announced today that he's running for President in 2020.

It is, of course, April 1.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, April 2, 2019 03:30:37 PM UTC0:00
Sanders raised $18.2 million in the first quarter. - [Link]

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, April 2, 2019 11:23:09 PM UTC0:00
Andrew Yang raised $1.7 million. - [Link]

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, April 2, 2019 11:27:23 PM UTC0:00
New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand will answer questions at an April 9 town hall moderated by CNN's Erin Burnett.

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee will join CNN for a town hall on April 10. CNN's Wolf Blitzer will moderate.

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro will appear at a town hall on April 11, which CNN's Don Lemon will moderate.

Also Marianne Williams at 7pm April 14 and Andrew Yang at 8pm April 14th

[Link]

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Wed, April 3, 2019 04:33:35 AM UTC0:00
Eric Swalwell to announce something in 2 weeks

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