There has never really been a Bradley Effect. It's just a theory that always gets brought up whenever a black candidate is running in any race that isn't centered on a majority black area.

also there's the whole thing with Obama carrying Florida twice to throw the whole Bradley Effect claim into some doubt

It most certainly existed and affected Bradley himself as well as Doug Wilder to an extent. But those days are long gone and 2008 should have dispelled any notion of the Bradley effect's lingering relevance.

The energy in Gillum’s camp is something I’ve never seen in the prior Florida gubernatorial races. Hoping it turns into actual votes!

You're an idiot.

You know POTUS Trump will be holding a rally for DeSantis at some point.

I guess Safe DeSantis then...

RP: I do recall some of the pollsters thought Crist was going to win in 2014.... only to see Scott get reelected.

You really are incapable of seeing that all of these things you say can work both ways...

Gubernatorial Debate this Sunday: https://www.theledger.com/news/20181019/1st-debate-between-ron-desantis-and-andrew-gillum-this-sunday-in-tampa

Gillum up by 12, where’s that DeSantis surge?

I still remember the narrative after the primaries was that Gillum was too liberal for the state. Not nearly enough people mentioned how DeSantis is very right-wing and strongly ties himself to Trump. In an environment where Democrats are favored and angry at Trump, that has not proven to be the best strategy, as Gillum has lead every poll of the race thus far.

Great point by EastTexasDem. Far-left vs. far right in a year where voters are leaning against the far right president isn't going to end well for DeSantis. The only problem is if Democrats feel like candidates like Gillum are their path to victory in the future. The tables turn very quickly in politics.

I’m pretty sure Gillum wins at this point if he doesn’t screw up in a big way and there is no Florida version of an “October Suprise.” DeSantis’s problem is he didn’t change the narrative after his screw up on election night, that defined him and he didn’t redefine himself in the coming weeks. Good conservatives can still win in Florida. Republicans can complain about liberal mainstream media, but its still about controlling the message with voters. DeSantis has done a crappy job of that. He’ll be an amazing DC Lobbyist come January.

Brentin: I just don't trust that polling survey showing Gillum up by 12 percentage points. Crazy things can happen in 2 weeks.

Brentin: I just don't trust that polling survey showing Gillum up by 12 percentage points. Crazy things can happen in 2 weeks. I don’t believe its a 12 point race either. But I do beleive its a 3 or 4 point race and that Gillum will out-poll Nelson statewide. I’ve been waiting to see if there is any October Surprise (like the FBI raid you have advanced) to change this race. But i don’t think it will happen. The only question I have about Florida Polling is how much impact displaced panhandle voters who can’t vote will have on the race. Seems to me that in close races lost votes in the panhandle could determine these races. I don’t know if it hurts Republicans or Democrats more.

Brentin: I'm thinking the FBI raids at Tallahassee City Hall could happen any moment now because the allegations of corruption are serious.

2nd Gubernatorial Debate tomorrow night at Broward College in Weston, FL: https://www.c-span.org/video/?453499-1/florida-gubernatorial-debate

The October Surprise appears to have doomed Gillum because if the FBI can connect the dots of those e-mails, you better start saying Governor DeSantis on January 8th, 2019.

Repeating the same thing over and over doesn't make it reality.

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1055163932783063041 The officer in question is the Sheriff of Gilchrist County. There is no Hillcrest County in the US.

a pretty sizable portion of Florida voters vote early.. so that may diminish the impact of any late revelations

https://twitter.com/AndrewGillum/status/1055265872930095104

Gillum has led in every poll since the primaries.

Here’s the link to the live poll being conducted by the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-flgov-3.html