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  TX US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Texas > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Turnout 33.29% Total Population
ContributorAJ
Last ModifiedRBH December 04, 2018 04:18pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameTed Cruz Votes4,440,137 (56.46%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin1,245,210 (+15.83%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Mar 06, 2018 TX US Senate - D Primary
Beto O'Rourke
D 1,042,914
Mar 06, 2018 TX US Senate - R Primary
Ted Cruz
R 1,549,573
Apr 15, 2018 TX US Senate - LBT Convention
Neal Dikeman
LBT 1
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/02/2013 11/06/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Ted Cruz 10 13 2 3
Beto O'Rourke 3 1 ----
Tossup 1 ------
Leaning Call: Ted Cruz (90.00%)
Weighted Call: Ted Cruz (98.63%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

04/03/2017 11/05/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Sen. Ted Cruz Rep. Beto O'Rourke Neal Dikeman  
PartyRepublican Democratic Libertarian  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes4,260,553 (50.89%) 4,045,632 (48.33%) 65,470 (0.78%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -214,921 (-2.57%) -4,195,083 (-50.11%)  
Predict Avg.50.21% 47.36% 2.57%  
Cash On Hand 9/30 $11,262,609.00 10/17 $10,336,214.00 $--  
Website [Website] [Campaign Site] [Website]  
Entry Date 00/00/2017 03/31/2017 00/00/2017  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (39 from 23 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg50.08%-- 45.52%-- -0.55%--  
Trafalgar Group 
11/03/18-11/05/18
52.10% -- 43.20% -- 0.00% --
Change Research 
11/01/18-11/02/18
49.00% -- 49.00% -- 1.00% --
Emerson College 
10/28/18-10/30/18
50.00% 3.0 47.00% 5.0 1.00% --
Quinnipiac University 
10/22/18-10/28/18
51.00% 3.0 46.00% 1.0 0.00% --
University of Texas - Tyler 
10/15/18-10/28/18
47.00% -- 43.40% -- 0.00% --
Dixie Strategies 
10/25/18-10/26/18
52.00% 6.0 42.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements  


EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/27/2018 vs Ted Cruz Web Only Ad Attack eng Ted Cruz Ain't Funny  00:00:30 RP 
10/18/2018 vs Ted Cruz TVAd Attack eng Cruz Throws In The Towel, Campaigns With Trump  00:01:00 Poll Vaulter 
10/15/2018 vs Ted Cruz TVAd Attack eng Ted Cruz loves White Castle  00:00:36 RP 
10/08/2018 vs Ted Cruz TVAd Biography eng Is Ted Cruz "Tough As Texas"?  00:00:30 BrentinCO 
10/01/2018 Ted Cruz vs Beto O'Rourke TVAd Issue eng Stand for the Anthem  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/04/2018 vs Beto O'Rourke TVAd Biography eng Bulldozer  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
07/26/2018 Beto O'Rourke TVAd Feel Good eng Showing Up  00:01:00 RP 
03/06/2018 Ted Cruz vs Beto O'Rourke Radio Ad Biography eng If You're Gonna Run in Texas, you can't be a Liberal Man  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 09, 2018 02:00pm Poll Native Texans voted for native Texan Beto O'Rourke, transplants went for Ted Cruz, exit poll shows   Article RP 
Oct 22, 2018 01:00am General Will Donald Trump's Houston rally for Ted Cruz motivate Republicans — or Democrats?  Article IndyGeorgia 
Oct 19, 2018 08:00am News Beto O'Rourke says he'd vote to impeach Trump, given the chance  Article Poll Vaulter 
Oct 17, 2018 06:00pm Video What Happens When 16 Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz Supporters Debate in One Room  Article BrentinCO 
Oct 15, 2018 04:00pm News Libertarian Candidate Files Federal Complaint Against Beto O’Rourke and CNN  Article Candidate Information Needed 
Oct 15, 2018 10:00am News Cruz plays the inside game to beat O'Rourke  Article PA Indy 

DISCUSSION
[View All
115
Previous Messages]
 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
Sun, April 8, 2018 08:46:24 PM UTC0:00
If anything O'Rourke can help boost turnout in House districts that Democrats are targeting so even if he doesn't win his presence on the ballot is still a plus for Democrats. That aside, Cruz does seem to be taking him seriously.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
Sun, April 8, 2018 09:07:33 PM UTC0:00
I agree with the turnout idea. I also belive If O’Rouke geniuinely is within 10 points of Cruz, the benefit to Democrats is enormous on another front. Republicans will need to spend money in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin TV markets. They haven’t had todo this for the last couple of cycles to the degree they will need to this year. Thats big.

Every dollar spent in Houston probably means money can’t be spent somewhere in Ohio or Missouri or North Dakota or West Virginia.

I can’t see Cruz losing this election. But as the saying goes, sometimes the best defense is a good offense.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, April 18, 2018 06:51:04 PM UTC0:00
Wow.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4306.3022 points)
Wed, April 18, 2018 06:56:36 PM UTC0:00
Favorability ratings among independents:

Cruz 34-54
O'Rourke 35-13

Cue the attack ads against O'Rourke...

 
I:7114Kyle ( 745.3659 points)
Wed, April 18, 2018 10:15:15 PM UTC0:00
The Governors race is also in single digits according to the poll, which I don’t buy. Take this with a grain of salt until something else comes out backing it up

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, April 18, 2018 10:34:55 PM UTC0:00
Hillary lost by about the same amount (as the Gov poll), so it's plausible.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
Thu, April 19, 2018 12:53:38 AM UTC0:00
This race might be in single digits. Changing demographics, Democratic ripple to wave.

But the outcome of this race is not in doubt.

And the cross tab break down of only 31% Republicans polled? Come on even a Democratic poll put Republicans at 40% in Texas. The SoS put Republican election turn-out north of 40 as well.

 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
Thu, April 19, 2018 04:39:26 AM UTC0:00
Party ID is fluid in polling and might not necessarily effect the overall top line of the poll.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1099.1687 points)
Thu, April 19, 2018 05:31:48 AM UTC0:00
The poll doesn't surprise me, Democrats haven't been this energized in the state like this for a long time and they are all rallying behind Beto. Even in rural and traditionally Republican areas, his town halls have been receiving good turnout (not saying he'll win these areas as Republicans outnumber the Dems there, but they show that there's enthusiasm).

Unless something drastic happens, Cruz's name recognition plus the fact that Texas is still a conservative state will ultimately put Cruz over the top in November, but the race will be close.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4306.3022 points)
Thu, April 19, 2018 06:08:23 PM UTC0:00
There will be no doubt that all Republicans win statewide until they don't. While I wouldn't bet on O'Rourke winning, O'Rourke will be close enough that if the blue wave turns into a blue tsunami he can win.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Mon, August 6, 2018 12:25:25 PM UTC0:00
O'Rourke raised over a million dollars over the weekend.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Tue, August 7, 2018 07:38:33 PM UTC0:00
It would sure be nice if we could see him start leading in some polling.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, August 7, 2018 07:54:03 PM UTC0:00
It's Texas. I would be surprised.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, August 7, 2018 07:54:35 PM UTC0:00
I do wonder if any other candidates for the same spot live as far apart.

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 1352.2366 points)
Tue, August 7, 2018 08:23:16 PM UTC0:00
Old Dominion Democrat: It would sure be nice if we could see him start leading in some polling.

It would be, but I think the best you can hope for is within the margin of error. If things break for O'Rourke maybe you'll see something like that in October.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Tue, August 7, 2018 09:12:21 PM UTC0:00
Eventually Texas will experience a California 1998 type year where there is a large, consistent swing in the opposite direction. I am just not convinced that 2018 will be that year. There is going to have to be a historical registering and mobilizing of Latino voters for that to happen in Texas. The urban centers in the state already seem to be there--with the exceptions of places like Fort Worth.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Tue, August 7, 2018 09:14:17 PM UTC0:00
I saw somebody say that Cruz is getting around 40% of Hispanic voters in polls.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Tue, August 7, 2018 09:20:27 PM UTC0:00
Republicans in Texas tend to do better with Hispanics at the state level than in other places. George W. Bush laid much of that outreach two decades ago.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, August 8, 2018 07:39:58 PM UTC0:00
Surprised that outreach is lasting so well through the Trump era.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Wed, August 8, 2018 11:06:07 PM UTC0:00
This will be the first real test in Texas to see if it survives the Epoch of Trump in the Lone Star State.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1099.1687 points)
Mon, August 20, 2018 04:17:21 AM UTC0:00
Looks like Beto's trying to win the youth vote by unorthodox means:

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1099.1687 points)
Wed, August 22, 2018 10:17:53 PM UTC0:00
I am skeptical of O'Rourke's chances in November, but this newest poll (from Marist, an A-rated pollster by 538) shows him down by just 4 behind Cruz. This is probably his best poll performance yet (when combining his polling numbers with the quality of the pollster), and I can't wait to see more as we get closer to election day.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1517.5498 points)
Thu, August 23, 2018 01:25:34 AM UTC0:00
He has focused heavier on rural Texas and solid red parts of Texas much more so than any Texas Democrat in a generation.

 
R:9757BrentinCO ( 3307.2993 points)
Tue, August 28, 2018 01:34:45 AM UTC0:00
@ Emerson College poll. Way too many undecideds

But this race is going to be closer than contemporary wisdom expects. Feels like this race is about 5-7 points favoring Cruz now. Should be about 10 - 15 points.

The question for me in this race and other mid-term tight races is will Democrats get their voters out to the poll. Repubicans generally have an off-year advantage,

Cruz’s campaign seems like its an auto-pilot. But given that he’s ditching Senate votes and hitting the campaign trail, one of his advisors probably finally got to him to tell him he actually needs to campaign to win instead of just sending out press releases and putting up ads.

Let’s see where this race is at at the begining of October. If O’Rourke is still within 5, then it means Cruz might need to further change tactics.

 
D:1RP ( 5218.4644 points)
Wed, August 29, 2018 06:02:51 PM UTC0:00
This tweet backfired pretty badly. Click through to read the responses.