Winning a state race and winning a federal race are two different things. If Johnson was to start polling anywhere close to winning the question of who he would caucus with would arise and that would put him at odds with one part of the coalition of voters he needs to win.

He would of course have the option of not caucusing with either.

The fundamentals & determining factors are favoring Heinrich since 2018 could be a Blue Wave (depending on which polling surveys you believe).

Third parties are always a mystery factor and its hard to gauge how their voting base will turn out.

Johnson could be down 20 on election day, or he could win. I see both as real possibilities.

the suspense in my eyes: does Johnson finish ahead of Rich and still not win any counties? with Rich winning typically Republican counties in Eastern NM and Johnson running ahead of Rich in the most populated counties to put him in 2nd place. Also worth noting that Johnson's re-election as Governor was in 1998, so there'll be a portion of the electorate that never had a chance to vote for him either due to age or due to not living in New Mexico in 1998.

This will be, by far, the most watched race on election night I think.

Most watched by Libertarians, yes. Everyone else, not so much.

Its definitely on my list to watch on election day aka my favorite holiday.

I still think Johnson could pull off the win. By the most narrow of margins (few hundred votes at most) but it could happen.

Johnson did fantastic in the most recent debate. Could probably add 5 more points to him.

Rich may as well drop out now, cause he's not beating either

I believe it's too late for Rich to drop out since the General Election is around the corner.

Even if Rich dropped out, he's the past the date where is name could be taken off the ballot.

Well it was more of a sentient thing.

the latest poll is good news for my "Rich winning counties while Johnson doesn't win any counties" guess

There was one recent poll that had Johnson less than 5 points behind Rich but I couldn't find a link to it.

Interested to see how this site would vote on this race.

BLUEDOGS I doubt it since he didn't win by that large a margin last time and he has an opponent that draws just as many votes away from him as it does from Rich, if not more so. If anything, I'd say 5 points at the most.

Johnson is done :(

Apparently, the people who were polled in the most recent poll were asked if they preferred Heinrich, Rich or Dunn, not Johnson. That could explain why the poll numbers were so low.

Where did you see that?

Apparently, the people who were polled in the most recent poll were asked if they preferred Heinrich, Rich or Dunn, not Johnson. That could explain why the poll numbers were so low. Fact check: Not True. Simply read the results of the poll; your claim is unsubstantiated.

I'd like the recent couple polls to be untrue but from where I'm sitting Gary has not felt very engaged and energetic lately. I hope he is not expecting to coast on name rec, because two-party bias or none he should be beating "Mick Rich-who?" on Tuesday night.

Kyle I'm going off of what I heard because multiple people apparently called the campaign office and wondered why Johnson had dropped out because he wasn't in the poll. This is coming from one of his campaign staff and it is currently being investigated. I'm simply reporting what happened.