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  NM US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > New Mexico > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorAndy
Last ModifiedPennsylvania Historian August 14, 2018 08:55pm
Data Sources
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2012
NameMartin Heinrich Votes395,717 (51.01%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin44,458 (+5.73%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jun 05, 2018 NM US Senate - R Primary Mick Rich R 67,502
Jun 05, 2018 NM US Senate - D Primary Martin Heinrich D 152,145
United States 1959 - MAP
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/02/2013 08/18/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Martin Heinrich ----3 6
Gary Johnson 1 ------
Leaning Call: Martin Heinrich (97.06%)
Weighted Call: Martin Heinrich (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/13/2018 07/29/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Sen. Martin Heinrich Gov. Gary Johnson Mick Rich  
PartyDemocratic Libertarian Republican  
Campaign Logo  
Predict Avg.41.50% 34.00% 24.00%  
Cash On Hand 9/30 $3,658,447.00
Donate
$--
Donate
9/30 $259,470.34  
Website [Website] [Website] [Campaign Site]  
Entry Date -- 08/14/2018 04/18/2017  
MATCHUP POLLS (3 from 3 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg41.78%-- 34.00%-- 31.13%--  
Lux Research 
07/28/18-07/29/18
40.00% -- 42.00% -- 0.00% --
NSON Opinion Research 
07/15/18-07/17/18
38.00% -- 24.00% -- 25.00% --
Carroll Strategies 
06/13/18-06/17/18
49.80% -- 0.00% -- 39.30% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT
Aubrey L. Dunn, Jr. (LBT)
Feb 06, 2018 - Jul 30, 2018

EVENTS
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VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
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INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Aug 04, 2018 10:45pm News Libertarian Party courts Gary Johnson for Senate run  Article Pennsylvania Historian 

DISCUSSION
[View All
6
Previous Messages]
 
I:9626Bojicat ( -15.1152 points)
Fri, August 17, 2018 02:31:49 PM UTC0:00
Dodo-be-do Johnson is sure to synch up enthusiasm and energy to the dullest race in the Union. It fuel-injects the unused spark plug socket in cipher Heinrich's pants.

Gary just might take it. 50-50, in my view.

 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 164.6621 points)
Fri, August 17, 2018 04:31:05 PM UTC0:00
It's impossible for Johnson to win 50-50 win there is a Republican in the race. That aside, Johnson has no chance at all.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( -15.1152 points)
Fri, August 17, 2018 05:24:15 PM UTC0:00
I meant a 50-50 chance of taking it. I don't know about Johnson having 'no chance at all' though. After all, he's ahead in (perhaps a somewhat disputable) poll released recently [Link] and he will draw away Republicans and Democrats who may have feelings of nostalgia for the old dodo. I'd give the race a slight-to-lean Heinreich, and I'd bet the race-interpreters (Sabato, Cook, Gonzalez, et al.) will readjust their forecasts shortly.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2904.0913 points)
Fri, August 17, 2018 06:41:50 PM UTC0:00
I think the only scenario by which this gets interesting is if the Republican drops out of the race, and that seems unlikely.

 
D:1989RBH ( 2550.8992 points)
Fri, August 17, 2018 09:58:57 PM UTC0:00
so, there's multiple polling firms willing to do "Libertarian vs Dem/Rep one on one" polls? (I recall that the NYS Libertarian had some polls like that, and that was an idea to try and game the requirements to get Johnson into debates in 2016)