This looks like a game-changer: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/10/31/libertarian_drops_out_of_montana_senate_race_backs_rosendale_138519.html

@Bojicat: I completely disagree. The 5% or so who vote libertarian don't do it with the expectation of victory. It's more of a protest vote, regardless of who the candidate is. Most of the people who said they were voting 3rd party probably have no idea who the candidate is, and aren't going to care who he supports.

From a candidate with significantly less than the margin between the top two, who remains on the ballot, while a large amount of the vote has already been cast early?

RP, Kyle - I'm thinking back when Tester tapped Rehberg in 2012 (a super year for Democrats) by only a hair with the obvious help (remarked on by everybody in the business) of the Libertarian that year. Hope you haven't forgotten. No cushion this time, which to me spells O-M-I-N-O-U-S for Sen. Tester (and am I not entitled to this rather obvious point? And a pretty wise one at that, I immodestly say, backed by much empirical and historical evidence). BTW, how do I get access to apply the thumbs up/thumbs down mark? Rather one-sided, otherwise. Would love to play.

The Lib endorsement may come to late to be of significance considering nearly 245k Montanans have already voted.

BTW, how do I get access to apply the thumbs up/thumbs down mark? Rather one-sided, otherwise. Would love to play. If you have access to create a post, you should have access to use the 2¢ feature.

No cushion this time, which to me spells O-M-I-N-O-U-S for Sen. Tester (and am I not entitled to this rather obvious point? Sure. I'll give you that if the polls are wrong and it's an almost even race that the maybe 0.5% (on the high end) this declaration makes could make the difference.

Even though Breckenridge dropped out, his name is still on the ballot because he did it very late in the game.

Thanks for letting us know that. I'm sure we would have totally missed that without you.

Does Montana have early voting? What percent has already voted?

They have both "absentee in-person" voting and allows anyone to request a ballot by mail. At least 220,000 ballots have been cast early as of yesterday, which is about half of the total cast in this race in 2012.

POTUS Trump coming to MT holding campaign rally for Rosendale.

Sorry, folks, but you're sort of tilting at windmills if you contend that the libertarian's withdrawal from the race/endorsement of Rosendale will have no effect on the outcome of this Senate contest. ALL outlets are reporting this as a significant change of fortune. The NYT today headlines this as a "Turn of Luck for Tester" and says "make no mistake: It’s good news for Mr. Rosendale, whose campaign — once considered a serious long shot — has piqued top-level Republican interest in recent weeks in a state Mr. Trump carried by 20 points." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/01/us/politics/house-elections-trump-ryan.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage Tester may hold on in the end, but his game's now thrown off a tad.

Bojicat: Rosendale might have just gotten the boost he needed. Even if he falls short, do you see him running for the MT Governor's Mansion in 2020 ?

So what then are the effects of the news that Breckenridge says he didn't drop out? - https://reason.com/blog/2018/10/31/despite-donald-trump-jr-retweet-libertar

Probably the same as always: Tester wins. Those voting for Breckenridge as is normally the case with voting Independent/third party are principally rebelling against the status quo, and this is even more the case in Montana, the most stubbornly contrarian of all the western states. Not sure if the misinterpretation of his words was on purpose but little Trump's pushing of the narrative most likely stems from the GOP's fundamental misunderstanding of what drives most Libertarians' thinking.

Coming to save Gianforte and calling it two birds? It's almost certainly sour grapes, though. Virtually everyone I know expects Tester to win.

Change Research, where Billie Sutton is winning by 6 and Jon Tester is losing

Tester has pulled ahead. I used number for the SOS office. However, CNN has slightly different numbers. All of the outstanding vote sees to be from 3 heavily blue counties. It looks like Landslide Tester will join Murkowski as the only three-peat plurality winners in the history of the US Senate.

Also, every good Democrat owes an ongoing debt of gratitude to the Montana Libertarian Party for electing Tester year after year after year.

Tester got lucky.

Closer than expected, but then somebody as liberal as Tester will never be safe in MT. As for the above comment, after Breckenridge my vote would be for Tester. If you vote outside the party system and can still stomach voting for a major party candidate, what matters is who you hate most. Lots of Libertarians hate the Trump GOP more than anything short of literal Nazis.

biggest upset of the night is if Tester wins with a majority..