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  MT US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Montana > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 08:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 09:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorAndy
Last ModifiedCandidate Information Needed July 13, 2018 06:29pm
Data Sources
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2012
NameJon Tester Votes236,123 (48.58%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin18,072 (+3.72%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jun 05, 2018 MT US Senate - R Primary Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. R 153,346
Jun 05, 2018 MT US Senate - D Primary Jon Tester D 114,948
Jun 05, 2018 MT US Senate - G Primary Steve Kelly G 1,586
United States 1959 - MAP
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/02/2013 10/19/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Jon Tester 10 5 --1
Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. 2 ------
Tossup 2 ------
Leaning Call: Jon Tester (85.71%)
Weighted Call: Jon Tester (101.12%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

06/11/2018 09/22/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (I) Sen. Jon Tester Auditor Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. Rick Breckenridge  
PartyDemocratic Republican Libertarian  
Campaign Logo  
Predict Avg.47.00% 45.50% 7.50%  
Cash On Hand 12/31 $6,307,068.00
Donate
5/16 $392,239.28
Donate
$--
Donate
 
Website [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 00/00/2017 07/31/2017 01/01/2018  
MATCHUP POLLS (9 from 8 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg49.09%-- 41.61%-- 2.86%--  
Gravis Marketing 
09/19/18-09/22/18
49.00% 2.0 45.00% 1.0 0.00% --
Axis Research 
09/17/18-09/19/18
44.00% -- 44.00% -- 4.00% --
Benenson Strategy Group (D) 
09/06/18-09/16/18
50.00% -- 43.00% -- 0.00% --
YouGov 
09/10/18-09/14/18
47.00% -- 45.00% -- 0.00% --
University of Montana 
08/13/18-08/31/18
56.00% -- 32.00% -- 2.00% --
WPA Research 
08/20/18-08/22/18
45.00% -- 47.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT
Steve Kelly (G)
Mar 12, 2018 - Jul 10, 2018

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/08/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Humor eng Following their Leader  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/08/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng Makeup  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/08/2018 vs Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Attack eng Royalties  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/08/2018 vs Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Attack eng scandals  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/08/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng Take His Keys  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/06/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng Vote Against Beltway Jon Tester  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/27/2018 vs Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Attack eng Hat  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/26/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng The Swamp  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/11/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng Signature  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/10/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng Signature  00:00:30 RP 
09/07/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng Own Words  00:00:30 RP 
09/06/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng Defend Freedom. Defeat Two-Faced Tester!  00:00:30 RP 
09/04/2018 vs Jon Tester TVAd Attack eng Twins  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
08/27/2018 Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Issue eng Matt Rosendale Helped Montana Families  00:00:30 RP 
08/22/2018 vs Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Attack eng Captain  00:00:30 RP 
08/10/2018 Jon Tester TVAd Issue eng Open Contracts  00:00:30 RP 
07/31/2018 Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Biography eng Matt Means Business  00:00:30 RP 
06/14/2018 vs Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Attack eng Dress Up  00:00:30 RP 
06/12/2018 Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. vs Jon Tester TVAd Issue eng Get Tough  00:00:30 RP 
05/21/2018 vs Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Attack eng Maryland Matt  00:00:30 RP 
05/13/2018 Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Attack eng Stepped In It  00:00:30 RP 
05/09/2018 vs Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Contrast eng Tough  00:00:30 RP 
04/26/2018 Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. TVAd Issue eng Haircut  00:00:30 RP 
03/08/2018 Jon Tester TVAd Biography eng 13 Bills  00:00:31 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 19, 2018 07:00am News New! President Trump Makes Third Trip to Campaign in Montana  Article Poll Vaulter 

DISCUSSION
[View All
4
Previous Messages]
 
I:9626Bojicat ( -18.8713 points)
Thu, October 18, 2018 03:10:57 PM UTC0:00
My take with just two weeks to go.

Arizona and Nevada "where things aren't going entirely to plan" (see Nate Silver/538 today [Link] ) stays on red. Two-year rep Jackie (a Reid-machine prop-up not ready for prime time, it'll be discussed in retrospect), can't topple an ambling monolith like Heller. Sinema, my dream candidate, my dream girl, broke my heart, with nasty bits of her past eking out. You can't survive a contest damning the people, the state, you hope to represent. "Beto takes Texas" was always a pipe dream headline. Tennessee was never a question. Silly to think of it. Nelson swivels back to face the abyss, despite less than a 2-week hopeful poke above the clouds. Heitkamp's already out to pasture. McCaskill was doomed from the start.

RCP now sees this as a 3-seat GOP pick-up [Link] but I see it as four: add Indiana. Donnelly has a 4-pt lead, you say? I say, notorious Indiana polling (remember how we all expected a Senator Bayh to breeze right into 2016, and a
Gov. Holcomb to lose by double digits, even to the end?).

My question now: Hither Tester? No polls post-Kavanaugh. Trump rallying (again) in MT [Link] Much anticipation, waiting for that next shoe to drop.