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AZ US Senate
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Parents |
> United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
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Office | Senate |
Honorific | Senator - Abbr: Sen. |
Type | General Election |
Filing Deadline | January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central |
Polls Open | November 06, 2018 - 07:00am Central |
Polls Close | November 06, 2018 - 08:00pm Central |
Term Start | January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm |
Term End | December 09, 2022 - 05:00am |
Contributor | Ashley |
Last Modified | IndyGeorgia December 09, 2022 05:27am |
Data Sources | [Link] |
Description |
Term End due to party switch
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CANDIDATES |
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Photo | |
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Name |
Rep.
Kyrsten Sinema |
Rep.
Martha McSally |
Angela Green |
(W)
Barry J. Hess, II |
(W)
Jonathan Ringham |
(W)
Michael DeCarlo |
(W)
Sheila Bilyeu |
Party | Democratic |
Republican |
Green |
Libertarian |
Old Republic |
No Party Affiliation |
Independent Democrat |
Campaign Logo | |
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Certified Votes | 1,191,100 (49.96%) |
1,135,200 (47.61%) |
57,442 (2.41%) |
365 (0.02%) |
46 (0.00%) |
45 (0.00%) |
42 (0.00%) |
Margin | 0 (0.00%) |
-55,900 (-2.34%) |
-1,133,658 (-47.55%) |
-1,190,735 (-49.94%) |
-1,191,054 (-49.95%) |
-1,191,055 (-49.95%) |
-1,191,058 (-49.95%) |
Predict Avg. | 47.72% |
47.62% |
2.40% |
0.12% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
Cash On Hand |
9/30 $2,108,612.25
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10/17 $2,523,657.50
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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$--
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Website |
[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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[Website]
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Entry Date |
09/28/2017
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01/12/2018
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01/01/2018
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01/01/2018
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01/01/2018
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01/01/2018
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01/01/2018
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Bar | |
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Adj Poll Avg | 46.17%-- |
45.93%-- |
1.92%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
Trafalgar Group 11/04/18-11/05/18 |
45.30% 4.5 |
47.40% 0.3 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Harris Interactive 11/02/18-11/04/18 |
47.30% 1.3 |
46.40% 1.6 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
OH Predictive Insights 11/02/18-11/03/18 |
48.00% 3.0 |
49.00% 3.0 |
0.00% 1.0 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Research Co. 11/01/18-11/03/18 |
45.00% -- |
44.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Emerson College 11/01/18-11/03/18 |
49.00% -- |
48.00% -- |
2.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Harris Interactive 11/01/18-11/03/18 |
46.00% 2.0 |
48.00% 1.0 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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Endorsements | |
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MORE CANDIDATES |
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Photo | |
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Name |
(W)
Robert Kay |
(W)
Jeff Pearce |
(W)
Edward Davida |
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Party | Independent Republican |
Independent |
Anti-Terror Party |
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Campaign Logo | |
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Certified Votes | 37 (0.00%) |
29 (0.00%) |
2 (0.00%) |
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Margin | -1,191,063 (-49.95%) |
-1,191,071 (-49.95%) |
-1,191,098 (-49.96%) |
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Predict Avg. | 0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
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Cash On Hand |
$--
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$--
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$--
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Website |
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Entry Date |
01/01/2018
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09/27/2018
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01/01/2018
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Adj Poll Avg | 0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
0.00%-- |
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Trafalgar Group 11/04/18-11/05/18 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Harris Interactive 11/02/18-11/04/18 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
OH Predictive Insights 11/02/18-11/03/18 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Research Co. 11/01/18-11/03/18 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Emerson College 11/01/18-11/03/18 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
Harris Interactive 11/01/18-11/03/18 |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
0.00% -- |
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Endorsements | |
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| INFORMATION LINKS |
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DISCUSSION |
[View All 67 Previous Messages] |
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I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
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Fri, November 2, 2018 01:49:03 AM UTC0:00
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Green endorsing Sinema. https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/sinema-endorsed-by-green-party-senate-candidate/75-0fd3f6c5-2792-4dfa-b48f-094598f6ba32
Green endorsing Sinema. [Link]
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I:9951 | E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
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Fri, November 2, 2018 03:42:54 AM UTC0:00
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Glad I didn't endorse Angela since she pulled this crap
Glad I didn't endorse Angela since she pulled this crap
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I:9775 | Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
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Fri, November 2, 2018 04:08:44 AM UTC0:00
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My endorsement now goes to Sinema as well. This race is too important.
My endorsement now goes to Sinema as well. This race is too important.
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I:9951 | E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
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Fri, November 2, 2018 04:23:01 AM UTC0:00
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au contraire
au contraire
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D:10124 | BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
x5
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Fri, November 2, 2018 05:02:51 PM UTC0:00
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Indy: McSally thinks that Green endorsing Sinema will turn off Independent voters.
Indy: McSally thinks that Green endorsin' Sinema will turn off Independent voters.
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R:7114 | Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
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Mon, November 5, 2018 02:12:10 PM UTC0:00
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Recent polling seems to point to a bit of a momentum gain for Sinema, but considering their respective margins of errors, this race could do anything from +7 McSally to +5 Sinema.
Recent polling seems to point to a bit of a momentum gain for Sinema, but considering their respective margins of errors, this race could do anything from +7 McSally to +5 Sinema.
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R:7114 | Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
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Fri, November 9, 2018 12:20:28 AM UTC0:00
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Sinema has taken a 2,000 vote lead after a large number of votes reported in Maricopa County. Those were early votes that favored her slightly.
The remaining votes seem to tilt towards Sinema (still around 70,000-80,000 left in Pima county), but with such a narrow margin it is still very, very tight.
Though, this is good news for the Sinema campaign. There didn't seem to be the expectation that they would make up the entire 17,000 vote difference in just today's result. Definitely trending in a positive way for Democrats.
Sinema has taken a 2,000 vote lead after a large number of votes reported in Maricopa County. Those were early votes that favored her slightly.
The remaining votes seem to tilt towards Sinema (still around 70,000-80,000 left in Pima county), but with such a narrow margin it is still very, very tight.
Though, this is good news for the Sinema campaign. There didn't seem to be the expectation that they would make up the entire 17,000 vote difference in just today's result. Definitely trending in a positive way for Democrats.
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I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
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Fri, November 9, 2018 12:53:21 AM UTC0:00
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I'm more convinced now that if Sinema wins this election, McSally will be appointed to take Kyl's spot if he steps down prior to 2020.
I'm more convinced now that if Sinema wins this election, McSally will be appointed to take Kyl's spot if he steps down prior to 2020.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Fri, November 9, 2018 06:16:46 PM UTC0:00
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If the remaining vote by mail ballots vote the same as their counties, Sinema will gain another 16,000 votes. I think these late votes tend to skew Democratic, so that would add more to Sinema's margin.
If the remaining vote by mail ballots vote the same as their counties, Sinema will gain another 16,000 votes. I think these late votes tend to skew Democratic, so that would add more to Sinema's margin.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Fri, November 9, 2018 08:42:15 PM UTC0:00
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Information on outstanding ballots is available from AZ Data Guru's twitter feed: https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer
Based on that, CNN's statewide margin (Sinema +8,256), and their county results, I estimate Sinema's final margin to be 21,444 votes. That assumes that CNN is as up to date as AZ Data Guru.
Information on outstanding ballots is available from AZ Data Guru's twitter feed: [Link]
Based on that, CNN's statewide margin (Sinema +8,256), and their county results, I estimate Sinema's final margin to be 21,444 votes. That assumes that CNN is as up to date as AZ Data Guru.
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D:10124 | BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
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Fri, November 9, 2018 11:13:05 PM UTC0:00
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Odds we'll get a winner ?
Odds we'll get a winner ?
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Sat, November 10, 2018 12:14:29 AM UTC0:00
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Maricopa County (Phoenix) just did a data drop along with a few smaller counties and now Sinema has a 21,000 vote lead, so it's pretty clear that the late absentees are in fact more Democratic leaning than the overall vote in the counties from which they come. Maricopa County still has around 265,000 votes to count and Pima (Tucson) still has about 60,000. I think Sinema's lead only grows from here - this race is over.
Maricopa County (Phoenix) just did a data drop along with a few smaller counties and now Sinema has a 21,000 vote lead, so it's pretty clear that the late absentees are in fact more Democratic leaning than the overall vote in the counties from which they come. Maricopa County still has around 265,000 votes to count and Pima (Tucson) still has about 60,000. I think Sinema's lead only grows from here - this race is over.
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I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
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Sat, November 10, 2018 12:43:14 AM UTC0:00
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I heard they still needed to count ballots that people dropped off at polling places on Election Day, which were supposed to favor McSally. Don't know how many of those there are. Is that correct?
I heard they still needed to count ballots that people dropped off at polling places on Election Day, which were supposed to favor McSally. Don't know how many of those there are. Is that correct?
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Sat, November 10, 2018 01:09:00 AM UTC0:00
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Those should be in the group of late absentee ballots they are verifying and counting (about 362,000 remaining), but I don't know why they would favor McSally. When Flake won 6 years ago, I remember how his margin kept shrinking as the late absentees were counted. It happens in other states too as the big urban counties take longer to process all the ballots.
Those should be in the group of late absentee ballots they are verifying and counting (about 362,000 remaining), but I don't know why they would favor McSally. When Flake won 6 years ago, I remember how his margin kept shrinking as the late absentees were counted. It happens in other states too as the big urban counties take longer to process all the ballots.
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I:6738 | IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
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Sat, November 10, 2018 01:14:43 AM UTC0:00
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Was reading this article. Last sentence is the most important:
The good news for Sinema is there still are another 150,000 ballots from the Democratic-favorable days waiting to be counted in Maricopa County. And Pima County has another 50,000 in the pipeline. While some of the more rural, conservative counties also have ballots piled up, they can't match the numbers in the urban areas.
The good news for McSally is that, after Maricopa gets through the 150,000 ballots it received during the Democratic pre-election surge, it will open about 200,000 that were dropped off on Election Day. The McSally campaign believes those will favor the Republican because they will be cast by older voters who like the tradition of going to the polling places. Maricopa's initial Election Day turnout was also heavily Republican, though Democrats came closer to evening it up with a surge of voters after work.
There's only one way to find out who is right - wait for the ballots to be counted. https://www.thestate.com/news/nation-world/national/article221418745.html
Was reading this article. Last sentence is the most important:
The good news for Sinema is there still are another 150,000 ballots from the Democratic-favorable days waiting to be counted in Maricopa County. And Pima County has another 50,000 in the pipeline. While some of the more rural, conservative counties also have ballots piled up, they can't match the numbers in the urban areas.
The good news for McSally is that, after Maricopa gets through the 150,000 ballots it received during the Democratic pre-election surge, it will open about 200,000 that were dropped off on Election Day. The McSally campaign believes those will favor the Republican because they will be cast by older voters who like the tradition of going to the polling places. Maricopa's initial Election Day turnout was also heavily Republican, though Democrats came closer to evening it up with a surge of voters after work.
There's only one way to find out who is right - wait for the ballots to be counted. [Link]
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D:1989 | RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
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Sat, November 10, 2018 05:27:31 AM UTC0:00
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it sorta reads like Bart insisting that Krusty was going to save them from Kamp Krusty..
it sorta reads like Bart insisting that Krusty was going to save them from Kamp Krusty..
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Sun, November 11, 2018 04:23:46 AM UTC0:00
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In the late absentees and provisionals being counted now, Sinema is running mostly 1.5-5 points ahead of her overall performance in each county. She's only running behind in Navajo County. There are about 266,000 ballots left.
In the late absentees and provisionals being counted now, Sinema is running mostly 1.5-5 points ahead of her overall performance in each county. She's only running behind in Navajo County. There are about 266,000 ballots left.
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D:10124 | BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
x3
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Mon, November 12, 2018 04:27:28 PM UTC0:00
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Which means McSally still has a chance.
Which means McSally still has a chance.
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Has Kyl stated if he intends to serve until the 2020 election? If not, I think I read somewhere before the election that if McSally were to lose there was some talk that Kyl would resign and Ducey would appoint her.
Has Kyl stated if he intends to serve until the 2020 election? If not, I think I read somewhere before the election that if McSally were to lose there was some talk that Kyl would resign and Ducey would appoint her.
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I:1038 | WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
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Mon, November 12, 2018 11:28:48 PM UTC0:00
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That's an option, but it's kind of crappy to appoint a recent loser to a seat that has someone capable of serving until the next election.
That's an option, but it's kind of crappy to appoint a recent loser to a seat that has someone capable of serving until the next election.
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D:7 | CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
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Tue, November 13, 2018 01:38:09 AM UTC0:00
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McSally has conceded. https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152
McSally has conceded.
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D:1 | RP ( 5506.7227 points)
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Tue, November 13, 2018 02:17:20 AM UTC0:00
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I thought Kyl suggested that he would only serve until the end of the year?
I thought Kyl suggested that he would only serve until the end of the year?
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I:1038 | WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
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Tue, November 13, 2018 04:55:39 AM UTC0:00
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Yup, turns out he hasn't comitted to serving until 2020. https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2018/09/04/6-things-you-need-know-incoming-sen-jon-kyl/1195229002/
Yup, turns out he hasn't comitted to serving until 2020. [Link]
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RP: Ducey could appoint McSally to McCain's US Senate seat.
RP: Ducey could appoint McSally to McCain's US Senate seat.
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I:1038 | WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
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Tue, November 13, 2018 05:14:55 PM UTC0:00
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Oh my fucking Jeebus.
Oh my ****ing Jeebus.
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