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  AZ US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End December 09, 2022 - 05:00am
ContributorAshley
Last ModifiedIndyGeorgia December 09, 2022 05:27am
Data Sources[Link]
Description Term End due to party switch
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameJeff Flake Votes1,104,457 (49.23%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin67,915 (+3.03%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyIndependent Won12/09/2022
NameKyrsten Sinema Votes1 (100.00%)
Term12/09/2022 - 01/03/2025 Margin1 (+100.00%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - D Primary
Kyrsten Sinema
D 509,970
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - R Primary
Martha McSally
R 655,298
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - LBT Primary
Adam Kokesh
LBT 2,169
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - G Primary
Angela Green
G 389
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/02/2013 11/06/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Kyrsten Sinema 15 3 ----
Martha McSally 4 3 1 2
Tossup 2 ------
Leaning Call: Kyrsten Sinema (47.73%)
Weighted Call: Kyrsten Sinema (84.13%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/13/2016 11/05/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. Kyrsten Sinema Rep. Martha McSally Angela Green (W) Barry J. Hess, II (W) Jonathan Ringham (W) Michael DeCarlo (W) Sheila Bilyeu
PartyDemocratic Republican Green Libertarian Old Republic No Party Affiliation Independent Democrat
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 1,191,100 (49.96%) 1,135,200 (47.61%) 57,442 (2.41%) 365 (0.02%) 46 (0.00%) 45 (0.00%) 42 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -55,900 (-2.34%) -1,133,658 (-47.55%) -1,190,735 (-49.94%) -1,191,054 (-49.95%) -1,191,055 (-49.95%) -1,191,058 (-49.95%)
Predict Avg.47.72% 47.62% 2.40% 0.12% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 9/30 $2,108,612.25 10/17 $2,523,657.50 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 09/28/2017 01/12/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (51 from 23 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg46.17%-- 45.93%-- 1.92%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Trafalgar Group 
11/04/18-11/05/18
45.30% 4.5 47.40% 0.3 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/02/18-11/04/18
47.30% 1.3 46.40% 1.6 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
11/02/18-11/03/18
48.00% 3.0 49.00% 3.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Research Co. 
11/01/18-11/03/18
45.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
11/01/18-11/03/18
49.00% -- 48.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/01/18-11/03/18
46.00% 2.0 48.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
LBR Old LW
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Robert Kay (W) Jeff Pearce (W) Edward Davida  
PartyIndependent Republican Independent Anti-Terror Party  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 37 (0.00%) 29 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,191,063 (-49.95%) -1,191,071 (-49.95%) -1,191,098 (-49.96%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 01/01/2018 09/27/2018 01/01/2018  
MATCHUP POLLS (51 from 23 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Trafalgar Group 
11/04/18-11/05/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/02/18-11/04/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
11/02/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Research Co. 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Adam Kokesh (LBT)
Jan 04, 2018
Doug Marks (LBT)
Jan 01, 2018 - Jan 02, 2018

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/25/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Ahead  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/22/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Nurse  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng 18 Years  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng advocated  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/12/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Arizona is the Meth Lab of Democracy  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/09/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Frontlines  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/26/2018 Martha McSally TVAd Issue eng Martha McSally - Clean Energy Champion  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/24/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography eng Defend Arizona: Right  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/14/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Act  00:00:30 RP 
09/14/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Marco  00:00:30 RP 
09/11/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Looked  00:00:30 RP 
09/08/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Lynn  00:00:30 RP 
08/30/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Refuse  00:00:30 RP 
08/23/2018 Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Mixed eng National Security  00:00:30 RP 
07/16/2018 Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography spa What Matters  00:00:30 RP 
04/04/2018 Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography eng Paul  00:00:30 RP 
09/28/2017 Kyrsten Sinema Candidacy Announcement Biography eng Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona  00:03:20 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 09, 2018 12:25pm Strategy Republicans claim Arizona election fraud amid tight McSally-Sinema race for Senate  Article RP 
Nov 08, 2018 07:10am Strategy Arizona GOP sues to limit mail-in ballots in McSally-Sinema race  Article RP 
Oct 24, 2017 04:25pm Analysis How Does Jeff Flakeā€™s Retirement Change The Arizona Senate Race?   Article RP 

DISCUSSION
[View All
67
Previous Messages]
 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Fri, November 2, 2018 01:49:03 AM UTC0:00
Green endorsing Sinema. [Link]

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Fri, November 2, 2018 03:42:54 AM UTC0:00
Glad I didn't endorse Angela since she pulled this crap

 
I:9775Natalie ( 108.7084 points)
Fri, November 2, 2018 04:08:44 AM UTC0:00
My endorsement now goes to Sinema as well. This race is too important.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -193.5252 points)
Fri, November 2, 2018 04:23:01 AM UTC0:00
au contraire

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
x5
Fri, November 2, 2018 05:02:51 PM UTC0:00
Indy: McSally thinks that Green endorsin' Sinema will turn off Independent voters.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Mon, November 5, 2018 02:12:10 PM UTC0:00
Recent polling seems to point to a bit of a momentum gain for Sinema, but considering their respective margins of errors, this race could do anything from +7 McSally to +5 Sinema.

 
R:7114Kyle ( 752.3616 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 12:20:28 AM UTC0:00
Sinema has taken a 2,000 vote lead after a large number of votes reported in Maricopa County. Those were early votes that favored her slightly.

The remaining votes seem to tilt towards Sinema (still around 70,000-80,000 left in Pima county), but with such a narrow margin it is still very, very tight.

Though, this is good news for the Sinema campaign. There didn't seem to be the expectation that they would make up the entire 17,000 vote difference in just today's result. Definitely trending in a positive way for Democrats.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 12:53:21 AM UTC0:00
I'm more convinced now that if Sinema wins this election, McSally will be appointed to take Kyl's spot if he steps down prior to 2020.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 06:16:46 PM UTC0:00
If the remaining vote by mail ballots vote the same as their counties, Sinema will gain another 16,000 votes. I think these late votes tend to skew Democratic, so that would add more to Sinema's margin.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 08:42:15 PM UTC0:00
Information on outstanding ballots is available from AZ Data Guru's twitter feed: [Link]

Based on that, CNN's statewide margin (Sinema +8,256), and their county results, I estimate Sinema's final margin to be 21,444 votes. That assumes that CNN is as up to date as AZ Data Guru.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 11:13:05 PM UTC0:00
Odds we'll get a winner ?

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Sat, November 10, 2018 12:14:29 AM UTC0:00
Maricopa County (Phoenix) just did a data drop along with a few smaller counties and now Sinema has a 21,000 vote lead, so it's pretty clear that the late absentees are in fact more Democratic leaning than the overall vote in the counties from which they come. Maricopa County still has around 265,000 votes to count and Pima (Tucson) still has about 60,000. I think Sinema's lead only grows from here - this race is over.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Sat, November 10, 2018 12:43:14 AM UTC0:00
I heard they still needed to count ballots that people dropped off at polling places on Election Day, which were supposed to favor McSally. Don't know how many of those there are. Is that correct?

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Sat, November 10, 2018 01:09:00 AM UTC0:00
Those should be in the group of late absentee ballots they are verifying and counting (about 362,000 remaining), but I don't know why they would favor McSally. When Flake won 6 years ago, I remember how his margin kept shrinking as the late absentees were counted. It happens in other states too as the big urban counties take longer to process all the ballots.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Sat, November 10, 2018 01:14:43 AM UTC0:00
Was reading this article. Last sentence is the most important:

The good news for Sinema is there still are another 150,000 ballots from the Democratic-favorable days waiting to be counted in Maricopa County. And Pima County has another 50,000 in the pipeline. While some of the more rural, conservative counties also have ballots piled up, they can't match the numbers in the urban areas.

The good news for McSally is that, after Maricopa gets through the 150,000 ballots it received during the Democratic pre-election surge, it will open about 200,000 that were dropped off on Election Day. The McSally campaign believes those will favor the Republican because they will be cast by older voters who like the tradition of going to the polling places. Maricopa's initial Election Day turnout was also heavily Republican, though Democrats came closer to evening it up with a surge of voters after work.

There's only one way to find out who is right - wait for the ballots to be counted.
[Link]

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Sat, November 10, 2018 05:27:31 AM UTC0:00
it sorta reads like Bart insisting that Krusty was going to save them from Kamp Krusty..

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Sun, November 11, 2018 04:23:46 AM UTC0:00
In the late absentees and provisionals being counted now, Sinema is running mostly 1.5-5 points ahead of her overall performance in each county. She's only running behind in Navajo County. There are about 266,000 ballots left.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
x3
Mon, November 12, 2018 04:27:28 PM UTC0:00
Which means McSally still has a chance.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 1532.0786 points)
Mon, November 12, 2018 11:26:05 PM UTC0:00
Has Kyl stated if he intends to serve until the 2020 election? If not, I think I read somewhere before the election that if McSally were to lose there was some talk that Kyl would resign and Ducey would appoint her.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Mon, November 12, 2018 11:28:48 PM UTC0:00
That's an option, but it's kind of crappy to appoint a recent loser to a seat that has someone capable of serving until the next election.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 4947.9873 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 01:38:09 AM UTC0:00
McSally has conceded.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 02:17:20 AM UTC0:00
I thought Kyl suggested that he would only serve until the end of the year?

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 04:55:39 AM UTC0:00
Yup, turns out he hasn't comitted to serving until 2020. [Link]

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 68.1367 points)
x2
Tue, November 13, 2018 04:03:04 PM UTC0:00
RP: Ducey could appoint McSally to McCain's US Senate seat.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 05:14:55 PM UTC0:00
Oh my ****ing Jeebus.

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