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  AZ US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Turnout 64.16% Registered 37.30% Total Population
ContributorAJ
Last ModifiedCharlotte Rose April 30, 2019 05:17pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameJeff Flake Votes1,104,457 (49.23%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin67,915 (+3.03%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - D Primary
Kyrsten Sinema
D 509,970
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - R Primary
Martha McSally
R 655,298
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - LBT Primary
Adam Kokesh
LBT 2,169
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - G Primary
Angela Green
G 389
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/02/2013 11/06/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Kyrsten Sinema 15 3 ----
Martha McSally 4 3 1 2
Tossup 2 ------
Leaning Call: Kyrsten Sinema (47.73%)
Weighted Call: Kyrsten Sinema (68.75%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/13/2016 11/05/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. Kyrsten Sinema Rep. Martha McSally Angela Green (W) Barry J. Hess, II (W) Jonathan Ringham (W) Michael DeCarlo (W) Sheila Bilyeu
PartyDemocratic Republican Green Libertarian Old Republic No Party Affiliation Independent Democrat
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes1,191,100 (49.96%) 1,135,200 (47.61%) 57,442 (2.41%) 365 (0.02%) 46 (0.00%) 45 (0.00%) 42 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -55,900 (-2.34%) -1,133,658 (-47.55%) -1,190,735 (-49.94%) -1,191,054 (-49.95%) -1,191,055 (-49.95%) -1,191,058 (-49.95%)
Predict Avg.47.72% 47.62% 2.40% 0.12% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 9/30 $2,108,612.25 10/17 $2,523,657.50 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 09/28/2017 01/12/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (51 from 23 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg46.64%-- 45.59%-- 1.84%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Trafalgar Group 
11/04/18-11/05/18
45.30% 4.5 47.40% 0.3 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/02/18-11/04/18
47.30% 1.3 46.40% 1.6 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
11/02/18-11/03/18
48.00% 3.0 49.00% 3.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/01/18-11/03/18
46.00% 2.0 48.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Research Co. 
11/01/18-11/03/18
45.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
11/01/18-11/03/18
49.00% -- 48.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Robert Kay (W) Jeff Pearce (W) Edward Davida  
PartyIndependent Republican Independent Anti-Terror Party  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes37 (0.00%) 29 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,191,063 (-49.95%) -1,191,071 (-49.95%) -1,191,098 (-49.96%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 01/01/2018 09/27/2018 01/01/2018  
MATCHUP POLLS (51 from 23 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Trafalgar Group 
11/04/18-11/05/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/02/18-11/04/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
11/02/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Research Co. 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Adam Kokesh (LBT)
Jan 04, 2018
Doug Marks (LBT)
Jan 01, 2018 - Jan 02, 2018

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/25/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Ahead  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/22/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Nurse  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng 18 Years  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng advocated  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/12/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Arizona is the Meth Lab of Democracy  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/09/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Frontlines  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/26/2018 Martha McSally TVAd Issue eng Martha McSally - Clean Energy Champion  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/24/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography eng Defend Arizona: Right  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/14/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Act  00:00:30 RP 
09/14/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Marco  00:00:30 RP 
09/11/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Looked  00:00:30 RP 
09/08/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Lynn  00:00:30 RP 
08/30/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Refuse  00:00:30 RP 
08/23/2018 Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Mixed eng National Security  00:00:30 RP 
07/16/2018 Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography spa What Matters  00:00:30 RP 
04/04/2018 Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography eng Paul  00:00:30 RP 
09/28/2017 Kyrsten Sinema Candidacy Announcement Biography eng Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona  00:03:20 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 09, 2018 12:25pm Strategy Republicans claim Arizona election fraud amid tight McSally-Sinema race for Senate  Article RP 
Nov 08, 2018 07:10am Strategy Arizona GOP sues to limit mail-in ballots in McSally-Sinema race  Article RP 
Oct 24, 2017 04:25pm Analysis How Does Jeff Flakeā€™s Retirement Change The Arizona Senate Race?   Article RP 

DISCUSSION
[View All
67
Previous Messages]
 
D:7918Labour Dem ( 152.8636 points)
Tue, September 11, 2018 03:12:31 AM UTC0:00
A 1% lead in a traditionally Republican state is hardly a sign of a guaranteed win for McSally and there isn't much that should be drawn from just one poll anyway. Sinema is far from being out of this and is still in a very good position.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -300.4630 points)
Thu, September 13, 2018 02:03:29 AM UTC0:00
Screw Kyrsten Sinema we don't need another Blue Dog Dem in the senate

 
I:9518Charlotte Rose ( 268.6999 points)
Wed, September 19, 2018 04:33:50 PM UTC0:00
Can someone remove Nicholas Glenn and Bill Gonzales? They were WI candidates in the primary

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 122.3838 points)
Wed, September 19, 2018 06:32:48 PM UTC0:00
Have they've scheduled any debates yet ?

 
D:9583Caprice ( 52.6125 points)
Wed, September 19, 2018 10:21:44 PM UTC0:00
What's so special about Trump's endorsement of McSally?

 
I:9518Charlotte Rose ( 268.6999 points)
Thu, September 27, 2018 04:44:08 PM UTC0:00
Can someone take out Camboni? I meant to add him to the Attorney General race

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 1352.2366 points)
Thu, October 4, 2018 12:58:26 AM UTC0:00
BLUEDOGS: Does it look like McSally is surging?

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 122.3838 points)
Thu, October 4, 2018 08:11:58 PM UTC0:00
Amelia: How are Independents bein' polled in this US Senate contest ?

 
D:9583Caprice ( 52.6125 points)
Thu, October 4, 2018 11:08:22 PM UTC0:00
BLUEDOGS: Amelia: How are Independents being polled in this US Senate contest ?
I can only assume they're being polled randomly.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 122.3838 points)
Wed, October 10, 2018 09:19:11 PM UTC0:00
Caprice: POTUS Cheeto Dude might do a rally for McSally at some point....

 
LBT:10038Pennsylvania Historian ( -145.0272 points)
Sun, October 14, 2018 11:23:30 PM UTC0:00
This one could go either way at this point honestly.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 122.3838 points)
Tue, October 16, 2018 04:42:59 PM UTC0:00
I watched thuh debate last night.... super hostile.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1099.1687 points)
Wed, October 17, 2018 06:10:24 PM UTC0:00
I don't think the Siena poll should be included yet, they are not done polling the state.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 122.3838 points)
Wed, October 17, 2018 08:21:31 PM UTC0:00
RBH: I'm thinkin' thuh videos showin' Sinema trashin' Arizonans is goin' to bite that chick in thuh expletive.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 745.3659 points)
Sat, October 20, 2018 03:41:09 PM UTC0:00
McSally's attacks on Sinema appear to be working.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 122.3838 points)
Mon, October 22, 2018 04:08:14 PM UTC0:00
Kyle: I think McSally wins super easily that chick.. The videos showin' Sinema bashin' Arizonans didn't help.


 
I:7114Kyle ( 745.3659 points)
x3
Mon, October 22, 2018 05:42:07 PM UTC0:00
I would disagree, BLUEDOGS. I don't think McSally wins "very easily". I just think that a pretty obvious Sinema lead has turned into a slight McSally advantage. A lot of things could happen between now and election day, but I see the winning candidate only winning by 3% or less.

 
D:8255My Congressman is a Weiner ( -19.7986 points)
Mon, October 22, 2018 09:14:14 PM UTC0:00
"Meth lab of democracy" was a slam on policies of the state government, not Arizonans.

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3015.9092 points)
Fri, November 2, 2018 01:49:03 AM UTC0:00
Green endorsing Sinema. [Link]

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -300.4630 points)
Fri, November 2, 2018 03:42:54 AM UTC0:00
Glad I didn't endorse Angela since she pulled this crap

 
I:9775Natalie ( 155.0022 points)
Fri, November 2, 2018 04:08:44 AM UTC0:00
My endorsement now goes to Sinema as well. This race is too important.

 
I:9951E Pluribus Unum ( -300.4630 points)
Fri, November 2, 2018 04:23:01 AM UTC0:00
au contraire

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 122.3838 points)
x5
Fri, November 2, 2018 05:02:51 PM UTC0:00
Indy: McSally thinks that Green endorsin' Sinema will turn off Independent voters.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 745.3659 points)
Mon, November 5, 2018 02:12:10 PM UTC0:00
Recent polling seems to point to a bit of a momentum gain for Sinema, but considering their respective margins of errors, this race could do anything from +7 McSally to +5 Sinema.

 
I:7114Kyle ( 745.3659 points)
Fri, November 9, 2018 12:20:28 AM UTC0:00
Sinema has taken a 2,000 vote lead after a large number of votes reported in Maricopa County. Those were early votes that favored her slightly.

The remaining votes seem to tilt towards Sinema (still around 70,000-80,000 left in Pima county), but with such a narrow margin it is still very, very tight.

Though, this is good news for the Sinema campaign. There didn't seem to be the expectation that they would make up the entire 17,000 vote difference in just today's result. Definitely trending in a positive way for Democrats.