Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A historical political resource." 
Email: Password:

  AZ US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Turnout 67.91% Registered 34.55% Total Population
ContributorAndy
Last ModifiedRBH November 12, 2018 06:45pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameJeff Flake Votes1,104,457 (49.23%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin67,915 (+3.03%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - D Primary Kyrsten Sinema
D 509,970
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - R Primary Martha McSally
R 655,298
MAP
United States 1959 - MAP
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/02/2013 11/06/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Kyrsten Sinema 15 3 ----
Martha McSally 4 3 1 2
Tossup 2 ------
Leaning Call: Kyrsten Sinema (47.73%)
Weighted Call: Kyrsten Sinema (87.05%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/13/2016 11/04/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. Kyrsten Sinema Rep. Martha McSally Angela Green (W) Jeff Pearce (W) Barry J. Hess, II (W) Michael DeCarlo (W) Sheila Bilyeu
PartyDemocratic Republican Green Independent Libertarian No Party Affiliation Independent Democrat
Campaign Logo
Uncertified Votes1,097,321 (49.69%) 1,059,124 (47.96%) 52,122 (2.36%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -38,197 (-1.73%) -1,045,199 (-47.32%) -1,097,321 (-49.68%) -1,097,321 (-49.68%) -1,097,321 (-49.68%) -1,097,321 (-49.68%)
Predict Avg.47.72% 47.62% 2.40% 0.00% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 9/30 $2,108,612.25 9/30 $3,343,668.25 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 09/28/2017 01/12/2018 01/01/2018 09/27/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (49 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg47.32%-- 45.93%-- 1.81%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Harris Interactive 
11/02/18-11/04/18
47.30% 1.3 46.40% 1.6 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
11/02/18-11/03/18
48.00% 3.0 49.00% 3.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/01/18-11/03/18
46.00% 2.0 48.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Research Co. 
11/01/18-11/03/18
45.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
11/01/18-11/03/18
49.00% -- 48.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Gravis Marketing 
10/24/18-11/02/18
46.00% 2.0 47.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Robert Kay (W) Edward Davida (W) Jonathan Ringham  
PartyIndependent Republican Anti-Terror Party Old Republic  
Campaign Logo  
Uncertified Votes0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,097,321 (-49.68%) -1,097,321 (-49.68%) -1,097,321 (-49.68%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.05%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018  
MATCHUP POLLS (49 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Harris Interactive 
11/02/18-11/04/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
11/02/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Research Co. 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Gravis Marketing 
10/24/18-11/02/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT
Adam Kokesh (LBT)
Jan 01, 2018 - Jan 04, 2018
Doug Marks (LBT)
Jan 01, 2018 - Jan 02, 2018

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/25/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Ahead  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/22/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Nurse  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng 18 Years  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng advocated  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/12/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Arizona is the Meth Lab of Democracy  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/09/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Frontlines  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/26/2018 Martha McSally TVAd Issue eng Martha McSally - Clean Energy Champion  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/24/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography eng Defend Arizona: Right  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/14/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Act  00:00:30 RP 
09/14/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Marco  00:00:30 RP 
09/11/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Looked  00:00:30 RP 
09/08/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Lynn  00:00:30 RP 
08/30/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Refuse  00:00:30 RP 
08/23/2018 Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Mixed eng National Security  00:00:30 RP 
07/16/2018 Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography spa What Matters  00:00:30 RP 
04/04/2018 Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography eng Paul  00:00:30 RP 
09/28/2017 Kyrsten Sinema Candidacy Announcement Biography eng Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona  00:03:20 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 09, 2018 12:25pm Strategy Republicans claim Arizona election fraud amid tight McSally-Sinema race for Senate  Article RP 
Nov 08, 2018 07:10am Strategy Arizona GOP sues to limit mail-in ballots in McSally-Sinema race  Article RP 
Oct 24, 2017 04:25pm Analysis How Does Jeff Flakeā€™s Retirement Change The Arizona Senate Race?   Article RP 

DISCUSSION
[View All
27
Previous Messages]
 
D:1989RBH ( 2556.0742 points)
Sat, November 10, 2018 05:27:31 AM UTC0:00
it sorta reads like Bart insisting that Krusty was going to save them from Kamp Krusty..

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2952.3037 points)
Sun, November 11, 2018 04:23:46 AM UTC0:00
In the late absentees and provisionals being counted now, Sinema is running mostly 1.5-5 points ahead of her overall performance in each county. She's only running behind in Navajo County. There are about 266,000 ballots left.

 
D:10124BLUEDOGS ( 11.2748 points)
x2
Mon, November 12, 2018 04:27:28 PM UTC0:00
Which means McSally still has a chance.

 
D:9602Old Dominion Democrat ( 87.1026 points)
Mon, November 12, 2018 11:26:05 PM UTC0:00
Has Kyl stated if he intends to serve until the 2020 election? If not, I think I read somewhere before the election that if McSally were to lose there was some talk that Kyl would resign and Ducey would appoint her.

 
I:1038PA Indy ( 832.8793 points)
Mon, November 12, 2018 11:28:48 PM UTC0:00
That's an option, but it's kind of crappy to appoint a recent loser to a seat that has someone capable of serving until the next election.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2952.3037 points)
Tue, November 13, 2018 01:38:09 AM UTC0:00
McSally has conceded.