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  AZ US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type General Election
Filing Deadline January 01, 2018 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open November 06, 2018 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close November 06, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
Turnout 73.32% Registered 37.30% Total Population
ContributorAJ
Last Modified'96for96th April 30, 2019 05:17pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameJeff Flake Votes1,104,457 (49.23%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin67,915 (+3.03%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - D Primary
Kyrsten Sinema
D 509,970
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - R Primary
Martha McSally
R 655,298
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - LBT Primary
Adam Kokesh
LBT 2,169
Aug 28, 2018 AZ US Senate - G Primary
Angela Green
G 389
MAP

Curve
Embed Code Data
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/02/2013 11/06/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Kyrsten Sinema 15 3 ----
Martha McSally 4 3 1 2
Tossup 2 ------
Leaning Call: Kyrsten Sinema (47.73%)
Weighted Call: Kyrsten Sinema (61.96%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

05/13/2016 11/04/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. Kyrsten Sinema Rep. Martha McSally Angela Green (W) Barry J. Hess, II (W) Jonathan Ringham (W) Michael DeCarlo (W) Sheila Bilyeu
PartyDemocratic Republican Green Libertarian Old Republic No Party Affiliation Independent Democrat
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes1,191,100 (49.96%) 1,135,200 (47.61%) 57,442 (2.41%) 365 (0.02%) 46 (0.00%) 45 (0.00%) 42 (0.00%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -55,900 (-2.34%) -1,133,658 (-47.55%) -1,190,735 (-49.94%) -1,191,054 (-49.95%) -1,191,055 (-49.95%) -1,191,058 (-49.95%)
Predict Avg.47.72% 47.62% 2.40% 0.12% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 9/30 $2,108,612.25 10/17 $2,523,657.50 $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 09/28/2017 01/12/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018 01/01/2018
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (49 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg46.95%-- 45.69%-- 1.84%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Harris Interactive 
11/02/18-11/04/18
47.30% 1.3 46.40% 1.6 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
11/02/18-11/03/18
48.00% 3.0 49.00% 3.0 0.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/01/18-11/03/18
46.00% 2.0 48.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Research Co. 
11/01/18-11/03/18
45.00% -- 44.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
11/01/18-11/03/18
49.00% -- 48.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Gravis Marketing 
10/24/18-11/02/18
46.00% 2.0 47.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name (W) Robert Kay (W) Jeff Pearce (W) Edward Davida  
PartyIndependent Republican Independent Anti-Terror Party  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes37 (0.00%) 29 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%)  
Margin-1,191,063 (-49.95%) -1,191,071 (-49.95%) -1,191,098 (-49.96%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $--  
Website  
Entry Date 01/01/2018 09/27/2018 01/01/2018  
MATCHUP POLLS (49 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Harris Interactive 
11/02/18-11/04/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
11/02/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Harris Interactive 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Research Co. 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
11/01/18-11/03/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Gravis Marketing 
10/24/18-11/02/18
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

DROPPED OUT
Adam Kokesh (LBT)
Jan 04, 2018
Doug Marks (LBT)
Jan 01, 2018 - Jan 02, 2018

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
10/25/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Ahead  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/22/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Nurse  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng 18 Years  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/18/2018 Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng advocated  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/12/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Arizona is the Meth Lab of Democracy  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
10/09/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Frontlines  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/26/2018 Martha McSally TVAd Issue eng Martha McSally - Clean Energy Champion  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/24/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography eng Defend Arizona: Right  00:00:30 Poll Vaulter 
09/14/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Act  00:00:30 RP 
09/14/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Marco  00:00:30 RP 
09/11/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Looked  00:00:30 RP 
09/08/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Lynn  00:00:30 RP 
08/30/2018 vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Attack eng Refuse  00:00:30 RP 
08/23/2018 Martha McSally vs Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Mixed eng National Security  00:00:30 RP 
07/16/2018 Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography spa What Matters  00:00:30 RP 
04/04/2018 Kyrsten Sinema TVAd Biography eng Paul  00:00:30 RP 
09/28/2017 Kyrsten Sinema Candidacy Announcement Biography eng Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona  00:03:20 RP 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Nov 09, 2018 12:25pm Strategy Republicans claim Arizona election fraud amid tight McSally-Sinema race for Senate  Article RP 
Nov 08, 2018 07:10am Strategy Arizona GOP sues to limit mail-in ballots in McSally-Sinema race  Article RP 
Oct 24, 2017 04:25pm Analysis How Does Jeff Flakeā€™s Retirement Change The Arizona Senate Race?   Article RP 

DISCUSSION