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IA US President - D Caucus
RACE DETAILS
Parents
>
United States
>
Iowa
>
President
Parent Race
US President - D Primaries
Office
President
Honorific
President - Abbr: President
Type
Democratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline
January 01, 2016 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open
February 01, 2016 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close
February 01, 2016 - 07:00pm Central
Term Start
January 20, 2017 - 12:00pm
Term End
January 20, 2021 - 12:00pm
Contributor
La Fayette
Last Modified
NCdem
April 24, 2024 07:52am
Data Sources
[Link]
Description
Closed caucus, 52 proportional delegates
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
Party
Democratic
Won
11/06/2012
Name
Barack Obama
Votes
822,544 (51.99%)
Term
01/20/2013 - 01/20/2017
Margin
91,927 (+5.81%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
Party
Republican
Won
11/08/2016
Name
Donald J. Trump
Votes
800,983 (51.15%)
Term
01/20/2017 - 01/20/2021
Margin
147,314 (+9.41%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
Race
IA US President 11/08/2016
LEANING PREDICTIONS
Detail
Leaning Graph
09/03/2011
02/01/2016
Candidate
Slight
Lean
Strong
Safe
Hillary Clinton
2
2
2
4
Bernie Sanders
1
1
--
--
Leaning Call: Hillary Clinton (90.32%)
Weighted Call: Hillary Clinton (98.79%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
04/15/2011
01/31/2016
Graph Poll MoE/Time
Remove Internal Polls
Remove Firm Bias
Graph Distance
Graph Falloff
Graph Days
Graph Day Offset
Ignore Pollsters:
American Research Group
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News
Emerson College
Gravis Marketing
Harper Polling
Loras College
Marist Institute
Monmouth University
Morning Consult
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)
Overtime Politics
Public Policy Polling
Quinnipiac University
Reuters/Ipsos
Selzer & Co.
Suffolk University
YouGov
CANDIDATES
Photo
Name
Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton
Sen.
Bernie Sanders
Gov.
Martin J. O'Malley
Uncommitted
Party
Democratic
Democratic
Democratic
Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes
700 (49.82%)
697 (49.61%)
8 (0.57%)
0 (0.00%)
Margin
0 (0.00%)
-3 (-0.21%)
-692 (-49.25%)
-700 (-49.82%)
Predict Avg.
51.96%
38.00%
4.67%
0.00%
Cash On Hand
$--
$--
$--
$--
Website
[Website]
[Website]
[Website]
Entry Date
00/00/2015
00/00/2015
00/00/2015
01/01/2016
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (62 from 17 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg
48.06%
--
43.85%
--
4.28%
--
0.00%
--
Emerson College
01/29/16-01/31/16
50.60%
1.2
42.60%
0.1
4.10%
1.2
0.00%
--
Quinnipiac University
01/25/16-01/31/16
46.00%
2.0
49.00%
--
3.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Overtime Politics
01/28/16-01/30/16
47.00%
2.0
48.00%
4.0
3.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Selzer & Co.
01/26/16-01/29/16
45.00%
3.0
42.00%
2.0
3.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
01/26/16-01/27/16
53.00%
4.0
42.00%
6.0
5.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
01/26/16-01/27/16
48.00%
2.0
40.00%
--
7.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
01/24/16-01/26/16
48.00%
--
45.00%
--
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Monmouth University
01/23/16-01/26/16
47.00%
18.0
42.00%
18.0
6.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
American Research Group
01/21/16-01/24/16
45.00%
1.0
48.00%
1.0
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News
01/18/16-01/21/16
48.00%
2.0
42.00%
6.0
3.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
YouGov
01/18/16-01/21/16
46.00%
4.0
47.00%
2.0
5.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Emerson College
01/18/16-01/20/16
51.80%
--
42.50%
--
2.90%
--
0.00%
--
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)
01/15/16-01/20/16
43.00%
11.0
51.00%
15.0
4.00%
--
0.00%
--
Monmouth University
01/18/16-01/19/16
47.70%
--
39.30%
--
7.40%
--
0.00%
--
Loras College
01/13/16-01/18/16
59.00%
0.1
30.00%
2.7
7.00%
3.2
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
01/11/16-01/12/16
57.00%
8.0
36.00%
5.0
7.00%
3.0
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
01/08/16-01/10/16
46.00%
6.0
40.00%
6.0
8.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Selzer & Co.
01/07/16-01/10/16
42.00%
6.0
40.00%
1.0
4.00%
--
0.00%
--
American Research Group
01/06/16-01/10/16
44.00%
--
47.00%
--
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Quinnipiac University
01/05/16-01/10/16
44.00%
7.0
49.00%
9.0
4.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
Overtime Politics
01/06/16-01/09/16
49.00%
--
44.00%
5.0
4.00%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
01/02/16-01/07/16
48.00%
15.0
45.00%
17.0
5.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
12/18/15-12/21/15
49.00%
8.1
31.00%
6.2
10.00%
7.1
0.00%
--
YouGov
12/14/15-12/17/15
50.00%
17.0
45.00%
2.0
4.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
12/10/15-12/13/15
52.00%
5.0
34.00%
9.0
7.00%
--
0.00%
--
Quinnipiac University
12/04/15-12/13/15
51.00%
--
40.00%
2.0
6.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
Loras College
12/07/15-12/10/15
58.90%
2.7
27.30%
3.7
3.80%
0.6
0.00%
--
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News
12/07/15-12/10/15
50.00%
--
36.00%
--
5.00%
--
0.00%
--
Selzer & Co.
12/07/15-12/10/15
48.00%
6.0
39.00%
2.0
4.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
Overtime Politics
12/04/15-12/08/15
49.00%
--
39.00%
--
4.00%
--
0.00%
--
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)
11/28/15-12/06/15
54.00%
4.0
36.00%
5.0
4.00%
3.0
0.00%
--
Quinnipiac University
11/16/15-11/22/15
51.00%
1.0
42.00%
9.0
4.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
10/30/15-11/01/15
57.00%
14.0
25.00%
3.0
7.00%
4.0
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
10/29/15-11/01/15
57.10%
17.6
24.80%
5.8
2.90%
1.4
0.00%
--
Monmouth University
10/22/15-10/25/15
65.00%
--
24.00%
--
5.00%
--
0.00%
--
Loras College
10/19/15-10/22/15
61.60%
--
23.60%
--
3.20%
--
0.00%
--
Selzer & Co.
10/16/15-10/19/15
42.00%
5.0
37.00%
7.0
2.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
09/23/15-09/30/15
33.00%
5.0
28.00%
1.0
3.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
09/27/15-09/27/15
39.50%
--
30.60%
--
1.50%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
09/18/15-09/20/15
43.00%
9.0
22.00%
3.0
3.00%
4.0
0.00%
--
YouGov
09/03/15-09/10/15
33.00%
--
43.00%
--
5.00%
--
0.00%
--
Quinnipiac University
08/27/15-09/08/15
40.00%
--
41.00%
--
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
08/26/15-09/02/15
38.00%
11.0
27.00%
2.0
4.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Selzer & Co.
08/23/15-08/26/15
37.00%
--
30.00%
--
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Suffolk University
08/20/15-08/24/15
54.00%
9.0
20.00%
--
4.00%
--
0.00%
--
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)
08/07/15-08/11/15
50.00%
3.0
31.00%
26.0
1.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
08/07/15-08/09/15
52.00%
--
25.00%
--
7.00%
--
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
07/29/15-07/29/15
50.80%
--
24.00%
--
4.70%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
07/14/15-07/21/15
49.00%
19.0
25.00%
18.0
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Quinnipiac University
06/20/15-06/29/15
52.00%
--
33.00%
--
3.00%
--
0.00%
--
Morning Consult
05/31/15-06/08/15
54.00%
--
12.00%
--
1.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
04/23/15-04/26/15
62.00%
4.0
14.00%
--
6.00%
6.0
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
02/03/15-02/10/15
68.00%
--
7.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Reuters/Ipsos
10/23/14-10/29/14
60.00%
--
2.00%
--
1.00%
--
0.00%
--
Opinion Research Corporation (CNN)
09/08/14-09/10/14
53.00%
--
5.00%
--
2.00%
--
0.00%
--
Suffolk University
04/03/14-04/08/14
62.96%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Harper Polling
01/29/13-01/29/13
65.38%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
11/03/12-11/04/12
58.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
07/12/12-07/15/12
0.00%
62.0
0.00%
--
2.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
07/12/12-07/15/12
60.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
05/03/12-05/06/12
62.00%
18.0
0.00%
--
1.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
04/15/11-04/17/11
44.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
D
Robert Dvorsky
🔗
Sioux City Journal
N
Matt Hayek
🔗
Des Moines Register
D
Janet Petersen
🔗
D
Jo Oldson
🔗
D
Ruth Ann Gaines
🔗
D
Marti Anderson
🔗
D
Liz Mathis
🔗
D
Sally Stutsman
🔗
D
Vicki Lensing
🔗
D
Janet L. Adams
🔗
D
Michael L. Fitzgerald
🔗
D
Tom Miller
🔗
D
Mary S. Mascher
🔗
D
Tyler Olson
🔗
D
Staci Appel
🔗
D
Abby Finkenauer
🔗
D
Wesley Whitead
🔗
D
Jeff Danielson
🔗
D
Bill Dotzler
🔗
D
Timi Brown-Powers
🔗
D
Phyllis Thede
🔗
D
Sally Pederson
🔗
D
Pam Jochum
🔗
D
Timothy H. Kacena
🔗
NPA
Daniel Clark
🔗
D
Pete D'Alessandro
🔗
I
Ed Fallon
🔗
Quad City Times
Council Bluffs Daily Nonpareil
D
Beverly A. Hannon
🔗
D
Daryl Beall
🔗
D
Tod R. Bowman
🔗
D
Kevin Kinney
🔗
D
Bruce Hunter
🔗
D
Charlie McConkey
🔗
R
Dan Kelley
D
Rich Taylor
D
Berkley Bedell
DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Lawrence Lessig (D)
Nov 02, 2015
Lincoln Chafee (D)
00, 2015 - Oct 23, 2015
Jim Webb (D)
00, 2015 - Oct 20, 2015
Joe Biden (D)
00, 2015
Cory Booker (D)
00, 2014
Andrew Cuomo (D)
00, 2014
Russ Feingold (D)
00, 2014
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
00, 2014
Deval L. Patrick (D)
00, 2014
Brian Schweitzer (D)
00, 2014
Mark Warner (D)
00, 2014
Elizabeth Warren (D)
00, 2014
Oprah Winfrey (D)
00, 2014
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