The Republican Party in the Kennedy Administration
The Republican Party rebounded in the early 1960s from its 1958 disaster. In 1960, the party gained 19 U.S. House seats and two seats in the Senate. Although the Republicans took Lyndon Johnson's Senate seat in Texas in a 1961 special election (won by John Tower), they lost a special election in New Hampshire. The midterm election of 1962 disappointed the party; it only gained three seats in the U.S. House and actually lost three in the Senate. However, the party gained governorships in PA, OH, and MI.
Early Presidential Maneuvering
As the year 1963 opened, several Republicans were named as potential candidates. One was New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, who had just been re-elected in 1962. Rockefeller visited Republicans in the midwest in the spring of 1963 to see how they would respond to his candidacy. He was encouraged by the response [New York Times 3/14/1963]. Former Gov. Goodwin Knight of California opened a Rockefeller campaign office in California, but Rockefeller convinced him to close it on 3/29 until he had decided to run [NYT 3/30/1963]. Rockefeller's popularity declined when he was remarried on 5/4/1963 after being divorced the previous year. The Republican Citizens Committee, a caucus of moderate Republicans, had decided by 7/16/63 not to support Rockefeller [NYT 7/17/1963]. Rocky plowed ahead anyway, and on 9/16 he announced that former Gov. Hugh Gregg of New Hampshire was on his team to help direct his efforts in the first primary [NYT 9/17/1963].
Other potential contenders included Sen. Barry Goldwater, former Sen. Henry C. Lodge, and Govs. Romney and Scranton. Goldwater headquarters were being informally opened in critical states by mid-1963; his Oregon office opened on 6/20/63 [NYT 6/21/1963], and in the summer he was leading in some opinion polls among Republicans. The New York Times reported on 7/7/1963 that a movement was underfoot in the northeast for "favorite sons" to run in state primaries to prevent a Goldwater nomination, since they feared major losses with Goldwater.
A conference of western Republicans was held in Eugene OR on 10/12/1963. Both Rockefeller and Goldwater attended. Rockefeller challenged Goldwater to a debate on "how our party can best deal with the vital issues before the American people today." Goldwater said he did not favor a Republican debate, which he believed would tarnish the party's unity [NYT 10/13/1963].
Rockefeller began his semi-official campaigning soon thereafter. He spent two days in New Hampshire, visiting with local Republicans and answering the question how he would govern differently from Pres. Kennedy [NYT 10/19/1963]. The following week, Henry C. Lodge declined to enter the New Hampshire primary, apparently opening the way for Rockefeller to consolidate moderate Republicans there against Goldwater [NYT 10/25/1963]. On 11/7/1963, Rockefeller became the first candidate to officially enter the race [NYT 11/8/1963].
The assassination of Pres. Kennedy on 11/22/1963 rattled the Republican field. Sen. Goldwater was attending the funeral of his mother-in-law when he heard the news. Govs. Rockefeller and Scranton announced a one-month period of mourning [NYT 11/23/1963]. During this month, Republican leaders looked at the electoral map to see if Goldwater could win. At the time, they reasoned that Goldwater would probably be locked out of the northeast and would split the South with LBJ. Former Pres. Eisenhower came out on 12/7/1963 and called on Lodge to enter the race as a compromise candidate [NYT 12/8/1963].
As the election year dawned, the field became clearer. Goldwater announced his candidacy on 1/3 [NYT 1/4/64], and on the following day, Lodge renounced the efforts to draft him [NYT 1/5/64]. Nixon was still mentioned as a possibility, as were Scranton and Romney. Harold Stassen entered the race on 1/20 but was never a factor [NYT 1/21/1964]. Sen. Margaret C. Smith jumped in seven days later as the first major woman to run for President [NYT 1/28/1964].
New Hampshire Primary
The first test for the candidates came in New Hampshire. There, a poll a few weeks before the primary showed that 60% of the Republicans had not made up their minds. The stakes were quite high. Goldwater's staff wanted to soft-pedal his right wing philosophy there. He did say that he wanted to use a newly revealed spy plane for reconnaissance over the Soviet Union, and he denied rumors that he would abolish the Social Security program [NYT 3/4/1964]. Goldwater spent 21 days campaigning continuously in NH, leaving the state on 3/7 with the prediction "I have it made." For part of that time, he campaigned while wearing a cast (he had surgery on his right foot to remove a calcium spur). One reason for his optimism was that moderate Republicans were divided three ways: among Rockefeller and write-in efforts for Lodge and Nixon [NYT 3/8/1964]. The movement for Lodge received a boost the day before the primary when it was announced that Lodge did not have his name removed from the Oregon primary ballot [NYT 3/10/1964]. This bit of information was received as a declaration of candidacy for moderate Republicans, and in a record turnout they gave him a solid victory with 36% of the vote to 22% for Goldwater, 21% for Rockefeller, and 17% for Nixon. The voters on the sleety and snowy primary day also selected a solid slate of delegates pledged to Lodge, defeating several well-known state politicians [NYT 3/11/1964].
Northeast Primaries
In the four-week lull after New Hampshire, Goldwater and Rockefeller both worked on trying to win endorsements in various states. Both worked on a Republican volunteer organization in California, where the two were scheduled to appear on the ballot in the primary on 6/2/64. The Field Research Associates released a poll showing Lodge in the lead in the state with 31% to 25% for Goldwater, 21% for Nixon, and just 12% for Rockefeller. Upon hearing the poll results, Goldwater said that Lodge would not do what was needed to win the nomination, and if chosen he would not work hard enough to win the election [NYT 4/5/1964]. Soon thereafter, both Gallup and Harris released polls showing Lodge as the front-runner with Nixon second and Goldwater a poor third [NYT 4/7/1964]. Scranton stated on 4/10 that he was not a candidate, thus reducing the field [NYT 4/11/64].
Illinois held its primary on 4/14. With the state Republican leadership almost solidly behind Goldwater, only Margaret C. Smith chose to file for the primary against Goldwater. During the campaign, Nixon and Lodge asked followers not to mount a campaign there. Goldwater defeated Smith 62-25%, which was far and away Smith's best primary performance. Lodge placed third on write-ins and Nixon fourth [NYT 4/15/64]. The Republican presidential primary in Illinois foreshadowed future problems, as one in five Republicans left the presidential preference vote blank but voted in state and local primaries. The delegate count: Goldwater 159, Rockefeller 90, Lodge 14 [NYT 4/18/1964].
New Jersey voted on 4/21. No candidates filed, so all votes were write-ins. Lodge again placed first with 42% to Goldwater 28%, Nixon 22%, and only 8% for all others.
Massachusetts and Pennsylvania voted on 4/28. No candidate appeared on the ballot in either. On the day before the two primaries, Rockefeller took the controversial stand of calling for US air strikes into Laos and Cambodia to help the government of South Vietnam [NYT 4/28/1964]. Lodge won MA with 77% of the vote to 10% for Goldwater and only 6% for Nixon. Scranton won his home state with 52% to Lodge 21%, Nixon 10%, and Goldwater 9%. It was clear that the Republican voters were not lining up behind either Goldwater or Rockefeller, who at this point had won together just 35% of the primary vote. In fact, if Illinois is taken out of the numbers, Lodge had 21% of the vote to Scranton 25%, Goldwater 8%, Nixon 7%, and Rockefeller 3%.
Texas to Florida
Another large chunk of delegates was chosen in the month following the Pennsylvania primary. During this time, eight states held primaries. Rockefeller recognized that the stakes were higher than ever; he was only mounting a serious campaign in two of the eight primary states. He attacked Goldwater as irresponsible and extreme, a candidate who would ruin the Republican Party [NYT 4/29]. Rockefeller also publicly chastised the supporters of Lodge. Since moderate Republicans were dividing their primary votes among Rockefeller, Lodge, and Scranton, they were allowing Goldwater to win many delegates he otherwise would not win. Campaigning in West Virginia, Rockefeller said that Lodge was "a person who isn't there, who says nothing on any issues" [NYT 5/1].
Goldwater spent the early part of the month in the South. He won 75% of the vote in the first Republican presidential primary in Texas. That same day, his supporters pushed the small cadre of black voters out of the Georgia Republican Party on 5/2, taking 22 out of the 24 national delegates [NYT 5/3]. Goldwater supporters the following day forced through Tennessee's first all-white delegation to the Republican National Convention in half a century [NYT 5/3]. With these delegate appointments, the AP estimated that Goldwater had 209 delegates; uncommitted was second with 143 to Scranton 63, Lodge 43, and 55 for others. Rockefeller had not won a single delegate at the time [NYT 5/4]. Four states held mostly uncontested primaries in the following two weeks; Goldwater won Indiana and Nebraska, Rockefeller won West Virginia, and Gov. Rhodes won his home state of Ohio.
The Oregon primary was held on 5/15. As one of the most important primaries of the year, all candidates spent time trying to win the state. Lodge took the lead in Oregon opinion polls soon after the New Hampshire primary, but Rockefeller pressed on his supporters to abandon him for not taking a stand against Goldwater. The primary was widely seen as a precursor to the California primary, which Goldwater needed to win in order to have a majority of convention delegates. Two days before Oregon voted, a California poll showed Goldwater leading Rockefeller there by 43-27% [NYT 5/14]. The poll precipitated a critical Rockefeller win in the Oregon primary. Rockefeller placed first with 33%, followed by Lodge with 28%, Goldwater with 18%, and Nixon with 17%.
In the latter half of the month, Goldwater continued to move towards the nomination. The only contested primary was in Florida, where a slate of uncommitted delegates unexpectedly defeated a Goldwater slate. However, AP estimated on 5/24 that Goldwater led with 304 delegates. Scranton was second with 70, followed by Rhodes with 58. Lodge had 44, and Rockefeller had 39; the uncommitted total was 224. The estimate was published the same day that Goldwater supporters were easily defeated in Alaska [NYT 5/25].
California and South Dakota
Sen. Goldwater's overall strategy was to lock up the delegate votes from the South and the West. If he could win California, he would be able to win the presidential nomination on the first ballot. His support in California public opinion polls remained a steady 43% throughout the spring, not deterred by his underperformance in primary after primary. Even when Lodge's supporters agreed to join Rockefeller in California in a "stop Goldwater" move [NYT 5/19], the polls only showed a minimal gain for Rocky [NYT 5/22]. With both candidates campaigning full-time, both drawing large crowds of interested Republicans, the division in the party was quite clear. Another thing became clear: the California voters finally began shifting to Rocky, who took the lead in opinion polls in the week preceding the primary [NYT 5/31]. As often happens in politics, a mostly unrelated event took place that changed everything. On 5/30/1964, Margaretta Rockefeller had a baby son. Newspaper coverage included the information that Margaretta had worked on Rockefeller's staff before the two of them divorced their long-time spouses to marry each other. This was not new information, but it had been mostly forgotten by the voters [NYT 5/31/1964].
Just over two million people voted in California's Republican primary, approximately one third of all nationwide votes in the Republican primaries of 1964. CBS used computers to sample the data collected from various polling places to announce at 7:22 p.m. Pacific time that Goldwater would win the race [NYT 6/3]. Other news organizations were slower to make that prediction, and at one point Rockefeller took the lead temporarily. In the end, Goldwater won the California primary by 3%. Goldwater addressed supporters as the networks showed him in the lead; he said "This is a victory not for Barry Goldwater, but for the mainstream of Republican thinking" [NYT 6/3]. By gaining the 86 delegates from California, he was just 30 delegates short of a majority. South Dakota chose 14 delegates on the same day as California, but an uncommitted slate easily defeated a Goldwater slate by a 2:1 margin.
With all primaries held, Sen. Goldwater was just a few small steps away from the presidential nomination. He had won 38% of the vote in the primaries, but his organization's successful work in non-primary states meant that he had 49% of the delegates. Gov. Rockefeller won 22% of the primary vote, 75% of which came from California. The favorite son candidates and unofficial candidates won 40% of the vote - more than either of the two leading candidates and a sign that the Republican faithful was remarkably dissatisfied with their choices.
Republican primaries of 1960
Republican primaries of 1968
Republican National Convention of 1964
Popular Vote of 1964
Electoral Vote of 1964
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