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NV US Senate
RACE DETAILS
Parents
>
United States
>
Nevada
>
Senate Class I
Office
Senate
Honorific
Senator - Abbr: Sen.
Type
General Election
Filing Deadline
March 16, 2012 - 12:00pm Central
Polls Open
November 06, 2012 - 09:00am Central
Polls Close
November 06, 2012 - 09:00pm Central
Term Start
January 03, 2013 - 12:00pm
Term End
January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Contributor
Ashley
Last Modified
RBH
December 01, 2012 09:20pm
Data Sources
[Link]
Description
Filing deadline speculative.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
Party
Republican
Won
04/27/2011
Name
Dean Heller
Votes
1 (100.00%)
Term
05/09/2011 - 01/03/2013
Margin
1 (+100.00%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
Party
Democratic
Won
11/06/2018
Name
Jacky Rosen
Votes
490,071 (50.41%)
Term
01/03/2019 - 01/03/2025
Margin
48,869 (+5.03%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Jun 12, 2012
NV US Senate - D Primary
Shelley Berkley
D
78,098
Jun 12, 2012
NV US Senate - R Primary
Dean Heller
R
103,062
LEANING PREDICTIONS
Detail
Leaning Graph
12/08/2008
11/06/2012
Candidate
Slight
Lean
Strong
Safe
Dean Heller
47
10
3
--
Shelley Berkley
19
1
--
1
Leaning Call: Dean Heller (75.25%)
Weighted Call: Dean Heller (90.44%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
01/03/2011
11/04/2012
Graph Poll MoE/Time
Remove Internal Polls
Remove Firm Bias
Graph Distance
Graph Falloff
Graph Days
Graph Day Offset
Ignore Pollsters:
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
Gravis Marketing
Grove Insight (D)
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)
Marist Institute
Mellman Group (D)
Precision Opinion
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
Public Policy Polling
Rasmussen Reports
Suffolk University
Survey USA
Tarrance Group (R)
University of Nevada-Las Vegas
We Ask America
YouGov
CANDIDATES
Photo
Name
(I)
Sen.
Dean Heller
Rep.
Shelley Berkley
David Vanderbeek
None of These Candidates
Party
Republican
Democratic
Independent American
Independent
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes
457,656 (45.87%)
446,080 (44.71%)
48,792 (4.89%)
45,277 (4.54%)
Margin
0 (0.00%)
-11,576 (-1.16%)
-408,864 (-40.98%)
-412,379 (-41.33%)
Predict Avg.
48.91%
46.23%
0.94%
0.64%
Cash On Hand
$0.00
6/30 $4,027,866.00
$--
$--
Website
[Website]
[Website]
Entry Date
00/00/2011
00/00/2011
00/00/2012
00/00/2012
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (43 from 16 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg
46.11%
--
41.01%
--
3.91%
--
3.24%
--
Public Policy Polling
11/03/12-11/04/12
48.00%
4.0
46.00%
2.0
4.00%
3.0
0.00%
--
YouGov
10/31/12-11/03/12
49.00%
7.0
40.00%
4.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Survey USA
10/23/12-10/29/12
46.00%
--
40.00%
--
6.00%
--
4.00%
--
Grove Insight (D)
10/27/12-10/28/12
44.00%
--
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
10/23/12-10/24/12
48.00%
1.0
45.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
10/22/12-10/24/12
44.00%
3.0
44.00%
--
7.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
10/23/12-10/23/12
50.00%
--
45.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Mellman Group (D)
10/15/12-10/17/12
38.00%
1.0
41.00%
1.0
5.00%
--
4.00%
2.0
Rasmussen Reports
10/15/12-10/15/12
50.00%
2.0
43.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Survey USA
10/11/12-10/15/12
46.00%
--
40.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
YouGov
10/04/12-10/11/12
42.00%
--
36.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Mellman Group (D)
10/08/12-10/10/12
39.00%
2.0
42.00%
--
5.00%
--
6.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
10/08/12-10/10/12
47.00%
3.0
44.00%
4.0
5.00%
--
0.00%
--
Suffolk University
10/06/12-10/09/12
40.00%
--
37.00%
--
7.00%
--
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
10/08/12-10/08/12
48.00%
6.0
45.00%
4.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Precision Opinion
10/06/12-10/06/12
45.00%
--
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Gravis Marketing
10/04/12-10/04/12
52.50%
--
35.80%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
We Ask America
09/25/12-09/27/12
45.20%
--
44.90%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
09/23/12-09/25/12
49.00%
--
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
09/19/12-09/20/12
44.00%
4.0
39.00%
3.0
4.00%
--
9.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
09/18/12-09/20/12
44.00%
3.0
48.00%
3.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
09/18/12-09/18/12
42.00%
9.0
41.00%
1.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
YouGov
09/07/12-09/14/12
42.00%
--
35.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
08/23/12-08/26/12
47.00%
2.0
45.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Survey USA
08/16/12-08/21/12
44.00%
--
39.00%
--
0.00%
--
5.00%
--
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
08/13/12-08/15/12
42.00%
--
44.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
07/24/12-07/24/12
51.00%
--
42.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)
07/16/12-07/17/12
45.00%
--
42.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
06/07/12-06/10/12
44.00%
--
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Marist Institute
05/22/12-05/24/12
46.00%
--
44.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
04/30/12-04/30/12
51.00%
--
40.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
03/29/12-04/01/12
46.00%
5.0
43.00%
5.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Rasmussen Reports
03/19/12-03/19/12
47.00%
--
40.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
University of Nevada-Las Vegas
12/12/11-12/20/11
43.00%
--
44.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
10/20/11-10/23/11
45.00%
1.0
45.00%
2.0
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Opinion Strategies (R)
09/14/11-09/15/11
48.00%
--
42.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
07/28/11-07/31/11
46.00%
1.0
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Tarrance Group (R)
07/12/11-07/13/11
48.00%
--
44.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)
06/21/11-06/22/11
44.00%
--
46.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Mellman Group (D)
06/11/11-06/14/11
37.00%
--
42.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
04/21/11-04/24/11
47.00%
--
43.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Mellman Group (D)
03/13/11-03/15/11
38.00%
--
42.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
Public Policy Polling
01/03/11-01/05/11
51.00%
--
38.00%
--
0.00%
--
0.00%
--
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
Las Vegas Review-Journal
R
CAGOP
R
Maryland Republican
Human Rights Campaign
Reno News & Review
I
Oscar B. Goodman
🔗
Las Vegas Sun
Ahora Latino Journal Reno
Asian-American Group of Las Vegas
D
Bill Clinton
🔗
El Mundo
La Presna Latina Newspaper
SNP
Progressive Scot
LBT
Jed
EVENTS
Start Date
End Date
Type
Title
Contributor
Sep 27, 2012 08:00pm
Sep 27, 2012 09:00pm
Debate
NV Sen First Debate
Progressive Scot
Oct 11, 2012 08:00pm
Oct 11, 2012 09:00pm
General Election
Nevada Second Senate Election Debate
Progressive Scot
VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date
Candidate
Category
Ad Tone
Lng
Title
Run Time
Contributor
10/23/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Endorsement
eng
Oscar
00:00:30
Progressive Scot
10/17/2012
vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
Dean Heller Gets A Failing Grade On Education
00:00:30
Progressive Scot
10/15/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Endorsement
eng
Rally
00:00:30
Progressive Scot
10/09/2012
vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
Dean Heller: Bad for women, Bad for Nevada
00:00:30
Progressive Scot
10/03/2012
vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
spa
Dean Heller: Blocking Opportunities for Nevadans
00:00:31
RP
10/03/2012
vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Spending
00:00:31
RP
10/02/2012
vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Contrast
eng
Credit
00:00:32
RP
10/01/2012
Shelley Berkley vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Contrast
eng
Jobs
00:00:33
Progressive Scot
09/27/2012
vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
Cynthia
00:00:33
RP
09/26/2012
vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
Wall Street's Favorite Senator
00:00:30
RP
09/22/2012
Dean Heller vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Diversion
00:00:31
RP
09/21/2012
vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Big
00:00:32
RP
09/17/2012
vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
With Dean Heller, Nevadans Are Going To Need A Much Bigger Piggy Bank
00:00:30
RP
09/13/2012
vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Shameful
00:00:35
RP
09/12/2012
Shelley Berkley vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Defend
eng
Cracked Down
00:00:28
RP
09/12/2012
Dean Heller vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Issue
eng
Energy (EspaƱol)
00:00:33
RP
09/12/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Issue
eng
Fighter
00:00:30
Progressive Scot
09/11/2012
Shelley Berkley vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Issue
eng
El Futuro de los DREAMers
00:00:31
RP
09/11/2012
vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Laughable
00:00:33
RP
09/10/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Issue
eng
Fighter
00:00:32
RP
09/05/2012
Shelley Berkley vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Defend
eng
Cracked Down
00:00:32
RP
09/05/2012
Shelley Berkley vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Mixed
eng
Side
00:00:32
RP
09/04/2012
Dean Heller vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Wrong
00:00:32
RP
08/31/2012
Dean Heller vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Facts
00:00:31
RP
08/31/2012
Dean Heller vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Our Turn
00:00:32
RP
08/14/2012
vs Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Business
00:00:31
RP
08/13/2012
Dean Heller
TVAd
Issue
eng
Gas
00:00:31
RP
08/10/2012
Shelley Berkley vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
Never Been
00:00:32
RP
08/01/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Contrast
eng
El Camino
00:00:31
Crimson
07/31/2012
Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
Credit
00:00:31
Crimson
07/31/2012
Shelley Berkley vs Dean Heller
Radio Ad
Attack
eng
Twice
00:01:01
RP
07/12/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Attack
eng
Proud
00:00:32
RP
07/12/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Issue
eng
Quote
00:00:32
RP
07/09/2012
Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
Care
00:00:32
Crimson
06/17/2012
Dean Heller
TVAd
Issue
eng
Job
00:00:31
Crimson
05/29/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Biography
eng
Waiter
00:00:32
RP
05/11/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Issue
eng
Medals
00:00:32
RP
05/03/2012
Shelley Berkley
TVAd
Issue
eng
Bailey
00:01:03
RP
03/15/2012
vs Dean Heller
TVAd
Attack
eng
Dean Heller: Nevada Common Sense?
00:00:47
RP
BOOKS
Title
Purchase
Contributor
INFORMATION LINKS
NEWS
Date
Category
Headline
Article
Contributor
Nov 05, 2012 06:00pm
News
Nevada Republican Sen. Dean Heller: I Need Obama Voters To Win
Article
COSDem
Oct 14, 2012 07:00pm
Analysis
Nevada Polls May Understate Democratic Support
Article
The Sunset Provision
Mar 09, 2012 01:00pm
Strategy
Berkley tries to use Limbaugh controversy to paint Heller into a corner
Article
Jason
Nov 24, 2010 01:25pm
General
Nevada politicos gear up for new battles
Article
Jason
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