Poll Average Details- MI Prop 22-3: Reproductive Freedom for All - 2022-11-08 22:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Yes No
Cygnal (R)11/4X 1.00000   51.7000 - 1.1522 bias 43.6000 - -1.1522 bias
Mitchell Research & Communications11/3X 0.98333   51.0000 - -4.0814 bias 46.0000 - 4.0814 bias
EPIC/MRA11/1X 0.95000   57.0000 - 2.1418 bias 40.0000 - -2.1418 bias
Emerson College10/31X 0.93333   50.6000 - -1.7331 bias 42.2000 - 1.7331 bias
Glengariff Group10/28X 0.88333   55.0000 - 5.6503 bias 41.0000 - -5.6503 bias
SSRS10/18X 0.71667   54.0000 - -2.1133 bias 45.0000 - 2.1133 bias
YouGov10/7X 0.53333   54.0000 - 6.7300 bias 38.0000 - -6.7300 bias
TOTAL 52.448021 43.262534