Poll Average Details- AZ Governor - 2022-11-08 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Kari Lake	Katie Hobbs	Alice Novoa	Anthony Camboni	Liana West	Mikaela Lutes-Burton	Steph Denny	RayShawn Merrill	William Pounds IV
Trafalgar Group	11/7	X 1.00000		50.5000 - 1.8988 bias	46.9000 - -1.6435 bias
Data for Progress	11/6	X 0.98333		52.0000 - -0.9368 bias	48.0000 - 1.5464 bias
Insider Advantage	11/2	X 0.91667		51.0000 - 0.0480 bias	48.0000 - -0.0455 bias
Marist Institute	11/2	X 0.91667		48.0000 - -0.4397 bias	49.0000 - 0.7635 bias
Remington Research	11/2	X 0.91667		49.0000 - -0.4438 bias	46.0000 - 0.8599 bias
OH Predictive Insights	10/26	X 0.80000		49.0000 - 1.3069 bias	47.0000 - -0.8237 bias
HighGround	10/13	X 0.58333		44.8000 - -0.4362 bias	45.8000 - -0.5387 bias
YouGov	10/4	X 0.43333		49.0000 - 0.0288 bias	49.0000 - 1.4134 bias
SSRS	10/2	X 0.40000		46.0000 - -0.8430 bias	49.0000 - 1.4667 bias
Suffolk University	9/25	X 0.28333		45.4000 - -2.1317 bias	46.2000 - 1.6356 bias
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research	9/15	X 0.11667		48.0000 - 1.2782 bias	49.0000 - -0.6142 bias
TOTAL				49.048540	47.237925	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000