Poll Average Details- US President - Popular Vote - 2024-11-05 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Donald J. Trump Donald J. TrumpJoe Biden Joe BidenRobert F. Kennedy, Jr. Libertarian Primary Winner Rachele Fruit Green Primary Winner Jasmine ShermanTulsi Gabbard Thomas L. Knapp Howard Stern Constitution Primary Winner Robert "Robby" Wells William Stodden Shiva Ayyadurai William McRaven Jimmy Dore Joseph "Joe" Kishore Sorinne Ardeleanu Huhnkie Lee Michael Wood Peter Sonski Claudia De la Cruz Literally Anybody Else Cornel West
Quinnipiac University4/22X 1.00000   46.0000 - -0.2682 bias 46.0000 - 1.0754 bias 16.0000 - 4.3101 bias                                       3.0000 - 4.3101 bias
Marist Institute4/18X 0.93333   48.0000 - -0.4397 bias 51.0000 - 0.7635 bias 14.0000 - 3.3151 bias                                       2.0000 - 3.3151 bias
Emerson College4/17X 0.91667   51.0000 - 0.6906 bias 48.0000 - 0.8084 bias 8.0000 - 0.7151 bias                                       1.0000 - 0.7151 bias
YouGov4/16X 0.90000   44.0000 - 0.0288 bias 44.0000 - 1.4134 bias 3.0000 - 1.2001 bias                                       1.0000 - 1.2001 bias
Pew Research4/14X 0.86667   49.0000 - -1.7614 bias 48.0000 - 1.4784 bias                                          
Reuters/Ipsos4/8X 0.76667   37.0000 - 0.8563 bias 41.0000 - 3.1158 bias                                          
TIPP4/5X 0.71667   40.0000 - 0.4288 bias 43.0000 - 0.1636 bias 11.0000 - 0.7281 bias                                       2.0000 - 0.7281 bias
Trafalgar Group3/31X 0.63333   43.0000 - 1.8988 bias 40.0000 - -1.6435 bias 11.0000 - 1.9277 bias                                       2.0000 - 1.9277 bias
Morning Consult3/31X 0.63333   42.0000 - -1.6394 bias 44.0000 - 3.1429 bias                                          
Marquette University Law School3/28X 0.58333   48.0000 - 0.0598 bias 52.0000 - 1.0486 bias                                          
Big Village3/13X 0.33333   31.0000 - bias 40.0000 - bias 9.0000 - bias                                       2.0000 - bias
Civiqs3/12X 0.31667   44.0000 - -1.4007 bias 45.0000 - 2.9404 bias                                          
Suffolk University3/11X 0.30000   40.0000 - -2.1317 bias 38.0000 - 1.6356 bias 9.0000 - 1.6824 bias                                       2.0000 - 1.6824 bias
Siena Research Institute2/28X 0.10000   48.0000 - -0.0165 bias 43.0000 - 0.4840 bias                                          
TOTAL 43.188362 42.594025 8.417931 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.128580