Poll Average Details- Île-de-France Regional President - 2021-06-20 02:00:00
The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window -
the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0.
If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals
in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively
be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus).
[TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed.
Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.
Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal |
Valérie Pécresse | Laurent Saint-Martin | Jordan Bardella | Julien Bayou | Audrey Pulvar | Clémentine Autain | Victor Pailhac | Nathalie Arthaud | Fabiola Conti | Éric Berlingen | Lionel Brot |
OpinionWay | 6/6 | X 1.00000 |
|
33.0000 - -3.1913 bias |
16.0000 - 0.2479 bias |
17.0000 - 4.3633 bias |
12.0000 - -1.1339 bias |
10.0000 - -1.0954 bias |
11.0000 - -1.9274 bias |
0.0000 - -1.7889 bias |
1.0000 - -0.1440 bias |
0.0000 - -0.2115 bias |
0.0000 - 0.0408 bias |
0.0000 - -0.2115 bias |
BVA | 6/6 | X 1.00000 |
|
33.0000 - -3.1913 bias |
15.0000 - -0.6573 bias |
19.0000 - 3.0969 bias |
12.0000 - 0.6267 bias |
10.0000 - -1.0954 bias |
8.0000 - -2.4274 bias |
1.0000 - -0.7889 bias |
1.5000 - -0.0183 bias |
0.5000 - 0.1139 bias |
0.0000 - -0.5866 bias |
0.0000 - 0.1139 bias |
Elabe | 5/31 | X 0.90000 |
|
35.0000 - -1.1913 bias |
15.0000 - -0.3266 bias |
16.0000 - 4.2656 bias |
10.0000 - -4.1291 bias |
12.0000 - 0.9046 bias |
9.0000 - -0.2118 bias |
0.0000 - -1.7889 bias |
1.0000 - -0.4593 bias |
1.0000 - 0.0110 bias |
1.0000 - 0.4134 bias |
0.0000 - 0.0110 bias |
IFOP | 5/18 | X 0.68333 |
|
33.0000 - -2.8580 bias |
15.0000 - 0.3386 bias |
16.0000 - 4.6575 bias |
11.0000 - -1.4132 bias |
10.0000 - -1.9815 bias |
10.0000 - -0.0984 bias |
|
1.0000 - -0.4847 bias |
|
|
|
TOTAL |
36.127740 |
15.410780 |
13.074828 |
12.755091 |
11.264377 |
10.757021 |
1.788900 |
1.392618 |
0.513000 |
0.370255 |
0.030241 |