Poll Average Details- VA Lt. Governor - 2021-11-02 18:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Winsome Earle Sears	Hala Ayala	Write-In	Aubrey "Japharii" Jones
Trafalgar Group	10/31	X 1.00000		50.0000 - 1.8988 bias	47.0000 - -1.6435 bias
Echelon Insights	10/29	X 0.96667		48.0000 - -0.1429 bias	46.0000 - -0.5627 bias
Roanoke College	10/28	X 0.95000		44.0000 - 0.3736 bias	46.0000 - -0.8388 bias
Washington Post-Schar School	10/26	X 0.91667		46.0000 - -2.6454 bias	50.0000 - 2.6351 bias
Christopher Newport University	10/25	X 0.90000		48.0000 - -0.8496 bias	49.0000 - 0.8749 bias
Suffolk University	10/24	X 0.88333		44.4000 - -2.1317 bias	45.8000 - 1.6356 bias
Virginia Commonwealth University	10/21	X 0.83333		35.0000 - -2.1314 bias	36.0000 - 2.7282 bias
Cygnal (R)	10/21	X 0.83333		47.0000 - 0.1689 bias	47.0000 - 0.0766 bias
co/efficient	10/21	X 0.83333	X 1/2	47.0000 - 1.9160 bias	46.0000 - -1.7398 bias
Data for Progress	10/15	X 0.73333		42.0000 - -0.9368 bias	47.0000 - 1.5464 bias
University of Mary Washington	9/13	X 0.20000		47.0000 - -0.3589 bias	41.0000 - -0.7427 bias
TOTAL				45.805736	45.439618	0.000000	0.000000