Poll Average Details- AB Legislative Assembly - Popular Vote - 2023-05-29 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	United Conservative Party	Alberta New Democratic Party	Alberta Party	Alberta Liberal Party	Green Party of Alberta	Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta	Reform Party	Communist Party	Independent	Alberta Advantage Party	Alberta Independence Party	Buffalo Party	Wildrose Loyalty Coaltion	Pro-Life Alberta Political Association	Solidarity Movement of Alberta
Abacus Data	5/12	X 1.00000		41.0000 - -10.3634 bias	51.0000 - 7.1125 bias	5.0000 - 4.4421 bias
Mainstreet Research	5/12	X 1.00000		49.9000 - -2.7626 bias	44.0000 - 0.4056 bias	2.1000 - -1.4248 bias		1.2000 - 2.1777 bias	1.2000 - 1.1731 bias
Ipsos	4/30	X 0.80000		48.0000 - -4.9040 bias	44.0000 - 2.2113 bias	4.0000 - 1.7590 bias
Léger	4/30	X 0.80000		43.0000 - -7.8398 bias	45.0000 - 1.6715 bias	4.0000 - 3.4541 bias	3.0000 - 2.1435 bias		1.0000 - 0.9952 bias
Think HQ Public Affairs	4/30	X 0.80000		46.0000 - -6.4609 bias	46.0000 - 3.1173 bias	5.0000 - 1.7545 bias
OraclePoll Research	4/20	X 0.63333		44.0000 - -8.1870 bias	46.0000 - 1.9125 bias	3.0000 - 2.3177 bias		5.0000 - 1.5524 bias	1.0000 - 0.9636 bias
TOTAL				52.061230	43.272299	1.855777	0.856500	0.738233	0.022107	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000