Poll Average Details- Welsh Senedd - Regional Vote - 2021-05-06 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Labour Party Conservative Party Plaid Cymru Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party Green Party of England & Wales Liberal Democrats UK Independence Party Others Independent Communist Party of Britain Propel Reform UK Gwlad - The Welsh Independence Party
YouGov5/4X 1.00000   31.0000 - -3.7254 bias 25.0000 - -2.2623 bias 21.0000 - 0.3723 bias 7.0000 - 0.5435 bias 5.0000 - 1.6851 bias 4.0000 - 2.5136 bias 3.0000 - 0.5460 bias            
Opinium4/19X 0.75000   38.0000 - 0.7288 bias 27.0000 - 0.4420 bias 19.0000 - -0.1554 bias   5.0000 - 0.7193 bias 4.0000 - -0.2855 bias 2.0000 - 1.8536 bias            
TOTAL 35.816457 26.960457 19.996714 6.456500 3.728814 2.686014 1.465029 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000