Poll Average Details- UK House of Commons - Popular Vote - 2024-05-02 16:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Labour Party	Conservative Party	Reform UK	Liberal Democrats	Green Party of England & Wales	Scottish National Party	Plaid Cymru	UK Independence Party	Independent	Alba Party
Ipsos	4/15	X 1.00000		44.0000 - bias	19.0000 - bias	13.0000 - bias	9.0000 - bias	9.0000 - bias	3.0000 - bias	1.0000 - bias
We Think	4/12	X 0.95000		44.0000 - bias	24.0000 - bias	11.0000 - bias	9.0000 - bias	6.0000 - bias	2.0000 - bias
Techne	4/11	X 0.93333		44.0000 - bias	23.0000 - bias	12.0000 - bias	10.0000 - bias	5.0000 - bias	3.0000 - bias
YouGov	4/11	X 0.93333		45.0000 - -3.7254 bias	19.0000 - -2.2623 bias	15.0000 - 1.1723 bias	8.0000 - 2.5136 bias	7.0000 - 1.6851 bias	3.0000 - -2.1958 bias
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	4/7	X 0.86667		44.0000 - bias	21.0000 - bias	15.0000 - bias	10.0000 - bias	6.0000 - bias	2.0000 - bias
TOTAL				44.941717	21.632344	12.930075	8.684122	6.304749	3.049697	1.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000