Poll Average Details- BRA President - 2022-10-02 15:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Jair Bolsonaro Luiz Felipe d'Ávila Ciro Gomes Simone Tebet Soraya Thronicke José Maria Eymael Leonardo Péricles Vera Lúcia Salgado Sofia Manzano Kelmon Souza
Datafolha10/1X 1.00000   48.0000 - 0.4582 bias 36.0000 - bias 1.0000 - -4.8469 bias 5.0000 - -1.3524 bias 6.0000 - -0.6418 bias 1.0000 - bias 0.0000 - bias 0.0000 - bias 0.0000 - 0.9457 bias 0.0000 - 2.1371 bias 0.0000 - 3.7886 bias
MDA Pesquisa9/30X 0.98333   44.2000 - bias 36.3000 - bias   4.5000 - bias 4.3000 - bias            
AtlasIntel9/30X 0.98333   49.8000 - bias 40.7000 - bias   3.9000 - bias 2.6000 - bias            
Genial/Quaest9/27X 0.93333   46.0000 - bias 33.0000 - bias   6.0000 - bias 5.0000 - bias 1.0000 - bias          
Ipespe9/16X 0.75000   45.0000 - bias 35.0000 - bias   7.0000 - bias 5.0000 - bias            
TOTAL 46.593219 36.293907 5.846900 5.475785 4.697520 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -0.945700 -2.137100 -3.788600