Poll Average Details- BRA President - 2022-10-02 15:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Jair Bolsonaro Luiz Felipe d'Ávila Simone Tebet Ciro Gomes Kelmon Souza José Maria Eymael Leonardo Péricles Vera Lúcia Salgado Soraya Thronicke Sofia Manzano
Datafolha10/1X 1.00000   48.0000 - 0.3983 bias 36.0000 - -3.2310 bias 1.0000 - -4.0657 bias 6.0000 - -0.4193 bias 5.0000 - -0.3661 bias 0.0000 - -1.8651 bias 0.0000 - -0.0140 bias 0.0000 - 0.4243 bias 0.0000 - 0.8440 bias 1.0000 - 1.2689 bias 0.0000 - 1.8033 bias
MDA Pesquisa9/30X 0.98333   44.2000 - 0.6315 bias 36.3000 - -1.3728 bias   4.3000 - 0.6577 bias 4.5000 - 1.9949 bias            
AtlasIntel9/30X 0.98333   49.8000 - 2.7036 bias 40.7000 - -1.8683 bias   2.6000 - -1.4771 bias 3.9000 - 0.9763 bias            
Genial/Quaest9/27X 0.93333   46.0000 - 1.0028 bias 33.0000 - -1.0921 bias   5.0000 - 1.3370 bias 6.0000 - 2.6649 bias         1.0000 - 2.6841 bias  
Ipespe9/16X 0.75000   45.0000 - 1.4204 bias 35.0000 - -3.7564 bias   5.0000 - 1.2773 bias 7.0000 - 4.5644 bias            
TOTAL 45.470453 38.499213 5.065700 4.348574 3.364275 1.865100 0.014000 -0.424300 -0.844000 -0.952100 -1.803300