Poll Average Details- PA Governor - 2022-11-08 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Joshua "Josh" Shapiro Douglas V. "Doug" Mastriano Matt Hackenburg Christina Digiulio Joseph P. Soloski Write-In Candace Wagner
Patriot Polling11/5X 1.00000   51.5000 - -1.4814 bias 45.0000 - 2.5748 bias          
Marist Institute11/2X 0.95000   54.0000 - 0.7635 bias 40.0000 - -0.4397 bias          
Remington Research11/2X 0.95000   52.0000 - 0.8599 bias 40.0000 - -0.4438 bias 2.0000 - 0.4208 bias 1.0000 - 0.4244 bias      
Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Company (R) - FOX News10/30X 0.90000   53.0000 - 1.0608 bias 37.0000 - -0.5021 bias          
Muhlenberg College10/28X 0.86667   54.0000 - -0.6942 bias 40.0000 - 1.6290 bias          
co/efficient10/28X 0.86667   51.0000 - -1.7398 bias 41.0000 - 1.9160 bias          
Insider Advantage10/26X 0.83333   50.2000 - -0.0455 bias 41.8000 - 0.0480 bias 2.8000 - 0.9670 bias        
Franklin & Marshall College10/23X 0.78333   58.0000 - 0.8112 bias 36.0000 - -0.8927 bias          
Echelon Insights10/20X 0.73333   50.0000 - -0.5627 bias 38.0000 - -0.1429 bias 1.0000 - 0.7714 bias 1.0000 - 0.6495 bias 1.0000 - 0.7165 bias    
SSRS10/17X 0.68333   56.0000 - 1.4667 bias 41.0000 - -0.8430 bias          
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research10/12X 0.60000   53.0000 - -0.6142 bias 42.0000 - 1.2782 bias          
Monmouth University10/3X 0.45000   54.0000 - 1.9679 bias 38.0000 - -0.9091 bias          
Suffolk University9/30X 0.40000   48.2000 - 1.6356 bias 36.8000 - -2.1317 bias 1.2000 - 1.1435 bias 0.6000 - 0.4664 bias 0.2000 - 0.1260 bias    
Emerson College9/26X 0.33333   51.0000 - 0.8084 bias 41.0000 - 0.6906 bias          
Phillips Academy9/19X 0.21667   45.9000 - -2.1782 bias 42.5000 - 3.5837 bias          
YouGov9/12X 0.10000   55.0000 - 1.4134 bias 44.0000 - 0.0288 bias          
TOTAL 52.473905 39.766986 1.103307 0.411501 0.209559 0.000000 0.000000