Poll Average Details- ON Legislative Assembly - Popular Vote - 2022-06-02 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Ontario Liberal Party Ontario New Democratic Party Green Party
Mainstreet Research5/16X 1.00000   33.0000 - -0.1802 bias 27.0000 - -3.5815 bias 28.0000 - 0.8665 bias 6.0000 - 2.0424 bias
Campaign Research5/8X 0.86667   36.0000 - -8.9033 bias 28.0000 - 1.4470 bias 25.0000 - 1.5183 bias 7.0000 - bias
Innovative Research5/4X 0.80000   32.0000 - bias 36.0000 - 6.1004 bias 22.0000 - -0.2192 bias 8.0000 - 2.8438 bias
Abacus Data4/21X 0.58333   34.0000 - -5.8720 bias 35.0000 - -6.5100 bias 23.0000 - 8.6974 bias 5.0000 - 3.1247 bias
Leger Marketing3/22X 0.08333   38.0000 - -7.0091 bias 23.0000 - 1.5783 bias 28.0000 - 0.1512 bias 8.0000 - 1.4635 bias
TOTAL 37.411745 31.053926 22.777075 4.736358