Poll Average Details- ON Legislative Assembly - Popular Vote - 2022-06-02 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Ontario Progressive Conservative Party	Ontario Liberal Party	Ontario New Democratic Party	Green Party	New Blue Party of Ontario	Ontario Party	Independent	Others
Abacus Data	6/1	X 1.00000		40.0000 - -4.3036 bias	27.0000 - -4.9714 bias	22.0000 - 7.1125 bias	4.0000 - 2.3226 bias	4.0000 - 1.4084 bias
Nanos Research	5/31	X 0.98333		38.8000 - -1.8572 bias	26.3000 - 0.0404 bias	24.7000 - 1.4413 bias	6.1000 - 0.7857 bias	2.1000 - -0.6153 bias	2.0000 - 0.2012 bias
Ipsos	5/31	X 0.98333		41.0000 - -1.5595 bias	24.0000 - 2.8238 bias	25.0000 - 2.2113 bias	6.0000 - 1.3303 bias
Léger	5/30	X 0.96667		40.0000 - -0.4314 bias	25.0000 - 2.1435 bias	24.0000 - 1.6715 bias	5.0000 - -0.9099 bias	3.0000 - 0.3150 bias	2.0000 - 0.2214 bias
TOTAL				42.004333	25.604547	20.784320	4.374891	2.663439	1.788786	0.000000	0.000000