Poll Average Details- MT At-Large - 2020-11-03 21:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr. Matthew M. Rosendale, Sr.Kathleen Williams Kathleen Williams
Montana State University Billings10/24X 1.00000   47.0000 - -1.1286 bias 46.0000 - 0.9098 bias
Strategies 36010/20X 0.93333   46.0000 - -1.2523 bias 46.0000 - 2.1332 bias
Siena Research Institute10/20X 0.93333   50.0000 - 0.2392 bias 46.0000 - 0.1736 bias
RMG Research10/18X 0.90000   47.0000 - -1.9745 bias 47.0000 - 3.2526 bias
Montana State University Bozeman10/2X 0.63333   48.0000 - -2.3613 bias 46.0000 - 3.4950 bias
Expedition Strategies8/27X 0.03333  X 1/2 48.0000 - -2.4039 bias 51.0000 - 4.4221 bias
TOTAL 48.789456 44.348523